Scotland - Regional Discussion - January

[lorenzo]

If you have ever played golf / football watching the models tonight was similar to... in golf hitting a putt that sneaks round the cup before disappearing way down the green, or in football having a penalty smash the inside of the post, roll across the goal line hit the other post then stay out.

This was as close as things got on the GFS, the ECM decided to really twist the knife into any promise of Easterly cold.

Let's hope the pub run can serve up some cheer, if not at the very least some spectacular FI.

This is what I would prefer the PV to be doing right now...

[LomondSnowstorm]

Quite a few cases of 'pistols at dawn' on the MT at the moment I see! What a change from the 'love in' yesterday with all the great model runs! It went wrong first of all this morning with Nick Sussex's post re the UKMO not playing ball, then the Strat thread hiccup, then the 06z, the 12z and finally the ECM. Probably another day or so before they start to look promising again and dangle the carrot which we will no doubt blindly follow, hoping that they will throw us at least one tasty morsel before winter's end!

It's fine to play the game, as long as you don't take it too seriously and understand that it won't always work out as planned.

People's perception of when we tend to get snow has been skewed enormously by the past two winters and also by the general cooling trend of December relative to January and February in 'modern winters'. On average we get more snow in March than December, and January has a mean temperature which actually lower than that of February. http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/averages/19611990/areal/scotland.html

So we're still probably not yet at the half way stage of 'real cold' potential, and we have over a month until we even have to start worrying about strong sunlight (after March we'll worry about the lack of it right through to November no doubt!).

[Cheggers]

Pictures form South of Drumochter.

[Northern Strath]

Maxed out at 8.3C here, winds picking up a wee bit. Excellent model analysis as usual kilted peeps, hope something exciting comes off in the next couple of weeks

Just have to hope the Eliassen Palm flux gets its act together...

Only after we reach 88mph though right? :ph34r:

[A Winter's Tale]

18Z was rubbish, the worst run of the past 6 or so and suggests no chance of an easterly. I'm feeling less confident of an easterly in January, but there's still a chance for a February.

What are your thoughts?

[lorenzo]

Maxed out at 8.3C here, winds picking up a wee bit. Excellent model analysis as usual kilted peeps, hope something exciting comes off in the next couple of weeks

Only after we reach 88mph though right? :ph34r:

Precisely Marty

[LomondSnowstorm]

18Z was rubbish, the worst run of the past 6 or so and suggests no chance of an easterly. I'm feeling less confident of an easterly in January, but there's still a chance for a February.

What are your thoughts?

Nothing is certain after the weekend, so any outlook based solely on the models after that will invariably be wrong, since we don't have any model consensus. It will all have changed by tomorrow anyway so there's no point worrying about it at this stage.

[edo]

8.3 here with a high of 9...no wind though so felt a lot warmer and out for a walk this avo with no jacket and was pleasant....hopefully this week be the last of that for a while with progressive but slow progress down the temps....im sure the pub run will throw up more exciting trends again tonight

[LomondSnowstorm]

One thing we might take from all of this - the UKMO and ensembles never really bought it AFAIK. We've returned tonight to this perhaps being the most feasible route to blocking http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gens-20-1-240.png?18 and to be honest, for most of us, especially highlanders, an initial northerly would be a better route to cold than the half hearted easterly (it was half hearted at best within an almost reliable timeframe) that was rearing its head yesterday. Greenie beats Scandi every time as blocks go, even if easterlies are your preferred option. Anyway, who knows what tomorrow may bring!

[Zenarcher]

18z isn't a great run Looking at the GFS ensembles some do show a blocking take place mid month. Still way to far out yet but I hope the models are overdoing PV and the lows and downgrade them which would upgrade our chances of a blocking

Edited January 8, 2012 by weathermaster

[Poots]

8.3 here and currently raining, pressure 1004. Another balmy day in the Borders!

[BleakMidwinter]

the sky it's to do with "scattering" and the colours of the spectrum passing through the clouds . . . . . it can turn lots of colours but mostly red, orange, purple and yellow . . . . . for it to go purple/pinky the 'sky' was probably filled with water, pollution and dust . . . . .

Aw! My beautiful peach-orange-purple-mauve-indigo-crimson sky was just pollution?!

Cruel morning today - woke, hit the snooze-button and in those 4 minutes dreamt really convincingly that it was snowing heavily onto settled lying snow, woke, leapt to see out the window.... nada.... cruel, cruel start to the day!

mild, damp, bright here. Very faint breeze. XC says 9C, pressure 1018, 14mph WSW.

[snowy owl]

well lovely bright mild start to the day. Nice to be back now that our internet seems to be working again after the B..bag returned.

Phone line still a bit iffy - have to wait till thurs for the engineer to come out.

So not missed much i see - things still uncertain whether we see real cold /snow or anything!!

[blitzen]

So not missed much i see - things still uncertain whether we see real cold /snow or anything!!

Trying to remain positive SO. GP's post on the MT this morning sounds encouraging. Was just reading that New York was 17c the other day, so it's not just us! Europe now appears to be getting colder so you never know.

[snowy owl]

Hi Blitzen, just read GP's post too, lets hope we see some changes showing in the next 5 days or so. BY then i should have a proper working internet connection !!!

[Poots]

Hi Blitzen, just read GP's post too, lets hope we see some changes showing in the next 5 days or so. BY then i should have a proper working internet connection !!!

Fingers crossed with the internet connection, Snowy. Looks like the temps are set to fall from the end of the week, here's hoping you get it fixed in anticipation of what's to come!

[over_the_rainbow]

I'm on a dash this morning so can't stop, but just had a quick gander at the 06Z and I would happily bank that run! Looks like snow potential over the weekend for many. Of course the next run may take it all away lol!

[BleakMidwinter]

The mainland of Europe is getting snow - lots!

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-16467352

"Heavy snow blocked roads and rail services to Austria's western province of Vorarlberg for hours on Monday.

Officials said that up to 60cm (23in) snow had fallen overnight into Monday and the risk of avalanches was high, assessed at four on a scale of five.[...]

Since Thursday, the Vorarlberg region has seen two to three metres (6-10ft) of snow.

The authorities have been blasting some areas of heavy snow to prevent avalanches from becoming too large."

[LomondSnowstorm]

Wow, having written off the easterly yesterday it's come back to bite today http://nwstatic.co.uk/viewimage.pbx?type=gfs;date=20120109;time=12;ext=144;file=h500slp;sess=5deea89a563ea5d5f0aae5e2a6437787;

Looks like the block might even win on this run...

[Benvironment]

WHAT A BEAUTIFUL DAY! I honestly can't remember the last time we had a day like this, where the sky is blue, the light is vivid, the sun is warm, it's not blowing a gale, and you can hear every flutter of every bird overhead. Utterly sublime.

More please

Wow, having written off the easterly yesterday it's come back to bite today http://nwstatic.co.u...0aae5e2a6437787;

Looks like the block might even win on this run...

That link doesn't want to work for me I'll take your word for it though!

[LomondSnowstorm]

WHAT A BEAUTIFUL DAY! I honestly can't remember the last time we had a day like this, where the sky is blue, the light is vivid, the sun is warm, it's not blowing a gale, and you can hear every flutter of every bird overhead. Utterly sublime.

More please

That link doesn't want to work for me I'll take your word for it though!

Sorry, try this http://nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120109/12/144/h500slp.png

Turns to a mid latitude block by T+192 hours but it's hard to say where it goes from there http://nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120109/12/192/h500slp.png

Anyway, the main thing is that the easterly is back on for Sunday/Monday, even if it is short lived and weak here.

[Benvironment]

Ta!

[LomondSnowstorm]

The 12Z control run is the first properly ramp worthy chart of the year that I've seen with any shot of verification http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=0&mode=0&carte=

We'd be up to our necks in snow if that beauty came off. It's unlikely to of course but that is just about the perfect setup for a dumping on a continental magnitude for central Scotland.

[snowy owl]

Fingers crossed with the internet connection, Snowy. Looks like the temps are set to fall from the end of the week, here's hoping you get it fixed in anticipation of what's to come!

Hi i have to keep pressing the phone to get an outside line to clear the internet so it can connect!! My phone line is also soooo crackly!! Lets hope its all fixed for sure - have been having withdrawal symptoms from the charts!!!

[A Winter's Tale]

A lovely and cold day here. And I love the look of the model runs too.