Scotland - Regional Discussion - January

[Cheggers]

Wet and wild here, of the weather kind, temp risen to 10C, boy do we need some cold weather soon.

[NorthernRab]

Not at all, I think we all feel like that sometimes. I think people perhaps take it a bit too seriously at times and hence we end up with a lot of tension when we are faced with such a large degree of uncertainty. Having said earlier that models weren't struggling more than usual, I think it has to be said that I've rarely seen this much flip-flopping from the models. It's pretty damned exciting though!

A decent 12Z from the ECM with some decent prospects longer term, certainly at least as promising as what it was showing two or three days ago. The background signals look as good, perhaps better, than when the easterly was on the charts and that's the main thing. As I recall last week the models were still stubbornly showing a +ve AO. That has pretty much changed now http://www.cpc.ncep....ex/ao.sprd2.gif The key thing to remember is timing - the flip was widely progged for mid-late January and I don't feel there's any reason to dismiss that - YET. My own forecast was for a stubbornly slow burning evolution with a lot of frustrating 'so near and yet so far' charts before we end up getting somewhere by the end of the month.

Oh I'm not denying for a moment that some fantastic discussion takes place in that thread - I was most specifically referring to the extremely dramatic mood shifts caused by take certain runs as gospel (I'm looking at cold fans as much as any one else here). It would be better for everyone's sanity if people were a little more patient and took a broader view of the models, that's all I'm saying.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Oh I'm not denying for a moment that some fantastic discussion takes place in that thread - I was most specifically referring to the extremely dramatic mood shifts caused by take certain runs as gospel (I'm looking at cold fans as much as any one else here). It would be better for everyone's sanity if people were a little more patient and took a broader view of the models, that's all I'm saying.

I think you maybe misunderstood my post, by 'not at all' I meant that you clearly weren't the only one who had those views of the MT. I totally agree with what you're saying - I'd say about 50% of the posts on there are reasonably insightful posts made in good faith relating to the models, but there is a significant number that are either better placed elsewhere or silly bickering. The model mood thread and the new model sum up page should hopefully ease this problem and allow people (I'm not saying it should be an 'elitist' thread by any means) who want to discuss the model output in a reasonable manner.

[Big Innes Madori]

A' right then gang?

Possible Cald Spell coming then eh

How come in these particularly warm times fur most of western Europe, is Austria having record snaw fall wi thousands o' Brits trapped in the Ski Resorts

Page# 10 in todays Daily Record refers

Big Innes

Edited January 11, 2012 by Big Innes Madori

[Cheggers]

All this chat aboot cold and snaw etc, tonight going to very very breezy.... gale force winds picking up till early hours for most.

[Big Innes Madori]

All this chat aboot cold and snaw etc, tonight going to very very breezy.... gale force winds picking up till early hours for most.

Hoping that if nae buddy mentions it, that this Bassa will pass by withoot oany further damage tae the hoose

Just had tae pay a Builder/Roofer tae repair a' the damage that Hurricane Baw Heed caused here last Tuesday

Big Innes

Edited January 11, 2012 by Big Innes Madori

[Cheggers]

Hoping that if nae buddy mentions it, that this Bassa will pass by without oany further damage tae the hoose

Just had tae pay a Builder/Roofer tae repair a' the damage that Hurricane Baw Heed caused here last Tuesday

Big Innes

Here's hoping this is the last gasp of the Atlantic fir a wee while.

[Big Innes Madori]

Here's hoping this is the last gasp of the Atlantic fir a wee while.

Christ ah hope so Cheggers!

This Atlantic Stormy Crap wid burst yer rivits

Bring oan the Cald & Snaw mate

Big Innes

[edo]

gusting 30knots here and 8.8c but feeling far cooler......southern cousins moods shifting up and down rather dramatically between runs...im relaxed that in a weeks time we will be looking fwd to snow in a reliable timeframe.....but if we are not no worries its only the weather... right PS3 time think will wait till the morning to check models...

[NorthernRab]

I think you maybe misunderstood my post, by 'not at all' I meant that you clearly weren't the only one who had those views of the MT. I totally agree with what you're saying - I'd say about 50% of the posts on there are reasonably insightful posts made in good faith relating to the models, but there is a significant number that are either better placed elsewhere or silly bickering. The model mood thread and the new model sum up page should hopefully ease this problem and allow people (I'm not saying it should be an 'elitist' thread by any means) who want to discuss the model output in a reasonable manner.

I realised that I had misread your post completely a while ago, but I had just had a huge dinner and couldn't bring myself to correcting it. Apologies

Edit: on re-reading this post this morning, what a fat lazy student I'm becoming - apologies bro XD

Edited January 12, 2012 by NorthernRab

[lorenzo]

Tis a wee bit blowy this evening ! I guess we have adapted to the meaning of 'storm' recently having been visited by bawbag and family, sting jets included.

The Atlantic has to give up some time surely ! That Polar Vortex whilst visiting as much as it has thrown a spanner in the the works for winter, certainly has helped deliver the interest for up here.

It's a weather watching win - either raging storm of NW incursions of cold, right now it seems only lake effect Easterly snow is the only thing missing off the menu.

Good job we haven't finished dining.

[LomondSnowstorm]

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120112/00/240/npsh500.png

The GFS' modelling of the vortex in FI looks totally out of kilter with background signals. The ECM has been the most consistent and is now showing cold northwesterlies backing northeast from 192 hours onwards.

[Soaring Hawk]

Reasons for hopefulness :

6) The sheep in Moray are jumping around! That's either one heck of a cold spell or the Mayans have got it right (the second sign that apocalypse is afoot by the way would be summer temperatures in excess of 23C at Glasgow Airport)....

Snow is currently a 'reserved matter' and it would be illegal for Scotland to have some without prior permission; otherwise someone could challenge it in court.

Oh I do love this thread ! Love it, love it.

[Cheggers]

Temp @ 7C but feels very raw. Lovely blue skies, proper winters day.

[edo]

6.5c here but actually feels a lot warmer...little wind and in contrast to yesterday had a pleasant walk at lunchtime with no jacket required....

local radio forecast wintry showers in Tayside??? have i missed something??..... As LS says ECM being very consistent so will be a hats off if that comes to fruition

[snowy owl]

Whaurs abody gone!!?? Bloomin frozen - hands are like ice!!! cauld is upon us.

Animals are extra hungry the day - maybe another sign of the cauld a coming!!

Glad to report the BT man arrived and fixed my connection in time for this cold!!! hooray. Have been bereft not being able to read and contribute.

Ready to update on the cold and i may even read the MT

Time for some tattie soup i think.

Edited January 12, 2012 by snowy owl

[lorenzo]

A fine day today, still, clear, blue skies. Not getting too cold overnight tonight. Hopefully some interesting model watching on the runs this evening as the move to cold nudges along like a car stuck in a traffic jam. Hoping the ECM 12z run delivers some good news !

[edo]

I love this thread.... we have guys like lorenzo LS and scottish skier etc providing fantastic analysis and you know what.....im more excited by the tales of strange animal behaviour being a precursor to snaw # fe.ck the science

Edited January 12, 2012 by edodfc

[November13]

Glad the frost returns tonight. However yer man on BBC last night said before anyone asks "No Snow" He seemed fairly confident!

[lorenzo]

Not to forget another pink sky this evening, looking pretty amazing out there just now !

Hopefully NL can update us on the Cheviot Ensembles and the Byre18z later..

[Hairy Celt]

Big heavy sleet showers all day, foul as a foul thing. Not as foul as the flaming dog walkers that leave dog crap everywhere.

Tattie soup sounds good. Followed by a pie.

And the proper cold stays resolutely a week away: groundhog day again. :wacko: :blink: :unsure:

Glad the frost returns tonight. However yer man on BBC last night said before anyone asks "No Snow" He seemed fairly confident!

Well that's probably because the BBC is actually the EBC. The SBC would have got it right.

[edo]

we had an incredible pink sky this morning aswell as this evening....interesting sky watching times

cheviot ensembles 18z....... found the sheep building abolt hole bear grylls style......... conclusion blizzards T192

[snowy owl]

Ditto re the dog crap - we have that here too!!

GFS on one route and UKMO on another route!! again.

Nae snow - now that would be a dissapointment - although HC i think your right SBC would've nailed it!

Tattie soup on the simmer now - lovely That'll be just what i need for when it snaws so i'll eat some tonight the rest in the freezer so i can eat it out in the snaw from my flask!!

[over_the_rainbow]

Was ranting about dog poo everywhere only this afternoon! (hmmm maybe should work on my school gates conversation....dog poo and the weather.... ) As a dog owner myself I always pick it up its easy to do, poo bags are free if you ask for them from the vets or local council, what's the big deal, why can't everyone else do it?!

Just had a quick look at 12z GFS and gave up as I see it was still going its own sweet way. Which model is right I wonder? Thanks for the analysis on here (including the naturally occurring Cheviot ensembles).

[snowy owl]

My question is why do some dog owners pick it up bag it and then throw the full bag away? Odd!! Especially when its easy to pop in a bin.

Charts are all over different options - cannot be sure how things will go really.

What are folks thoughts on the the next few days??

Edited January 12, 2012 by snowy owl