Scotland - Regional Discussion - January

[A Winter's Tale]

Models are quite frustrating, the PV is being a pain! Patience is still needed, but there will come a time that it will run out. I think we've got till early February for a decent, quite LONG LOSTING cold spell in WINTER.

I don't have a clue about whether this winter will follow along the same lines as the past 3, we've got a lot of time left till we're sure. But is this SSW going to do it for us, is the PV going to shift in time, can there possible be blocking in February?

I'm clueness and beginning to lose hope about a noteworthy cold spell, what is everyones thoughts? Lorezo, LS, CMD...?

[lorenzo]

Patience, the gloom is a hangover from a stupendous pub run.. remember the phrase that crops up in the model thread of 1,2,3 bites of the cherry, a cliche but in this position so very true..

This chart as scrambled as it looks is the anatomy of the Scandi high(approx location) as modelled by the GEFS runs today, look at the nonsense that spews out after the 14th. It is pin a tail on the donkey in terms of FI.

The 14th isn't too far away, what is clear is these models don't like change.. back tomorrow evening.. Enjoy the continuing saga tomorrow !

Edit to add chart

Edited January 10, 2012 by lorenzo

[LomondSnowstorm]

Models are quite frustrating, the PV is being a pain! Patience is still needed, but there will come a time that it will run out. I think we've got till early February for a decent, quite LONG LOSTING cold spell in WINTER.

I don't have a clue about whether this winter will follow along the same lines as the past 3, we've got a lot of time left till we're sure. But is this SSW going to do it for us, is the PV going to shift in time, can there possible be blocking in February?

I'm clueness and beginning to lose hope about a noteworthy cold spell, what is everyones thoughts? Lorezo, LS, CMD...?

Still no technical SSW on the cards, perhaps there will be but the zonal winds aren't forecast to reverse so at the moment it's just a big warming. Previous warmings are having a cumulative effect to weaken the vortex and really a decent cold spell isn't inhibited by the strength of the vortex as such but the positioning of it. If it shifts towards Canada and we can get rid of the heights to the south (ideally through mid Atlantic ridge-Greenland High development) we'll be laughing. It so nearly fell into place but the angle of attack from the trough was just not quite there and the ridging unable to get north due to a pesky shortwave(unless we have another incredibly last minute change). GP remains confident because the PV is forecast to shift west due to changes upstream and that means that the general idea of the timing of directions of attack is likely to be, as the models showed 5 days ago, northwest-north-northeast-east. Potentially good news for the skiers among us certainly, but there are still many other options on the table. Cold zonality for example if the jet doesn't quite track far enough south and remains fairly flat, or continued frustrating attempts at ridging resulting in nothing more than a few days of frost. I don't see any 'mild' options for us, maybe average at worst, some dry, but there's a heck of a lot of room for changes even at the 7-10 day range.

Nothing to TOORP about though, no '+5C anomaly' January or 88/89 style mild on the cards at the moment.

Patience, the gloom is a hangover from a stupendous pub run.. remember the phrase that crops up in the model thread of 1,2,3 bites of the cherry, a cliche but in this position so very true..

I think we've all seen slightly overprogressive solutions showing along with major model drama before, especially with easterlies, only to see it disappearing off the charts for a few days, reappearing in a slightly different form and verifying.

edit: Obviously the +5C anomalies will never happen unless we've started using 1770-1799 averages....

Edited January 10, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[edo]

Aye, Watching "from freezer to furness" on Eden and the chap in Siberia was maoning as it was a cold year last.... a month of -57c to -61c. School only cancelled if it drops below -52c

lol that is scary stuff.....I wonder who decided -52 became unacceptable I see the ECM this morning starting to look half decent again this morning and some real decent cold pooling out east but ttoo far out to start getting excited yet....getting cool fairly imminently though with widespread frosts from Sunday night...I know that is not incredibly exciting but its hopefully the start of the exciting 2nd half of winter

[Cheggers]

Nice day here @ 9c with very little wind. Got a wee bit breezy last night for a while.

[snowy owl]

More signs starting to show even on ECM - stick with it folks.

Scary snows in Alaska etc - don't think i'd fancy walking to school in -51C!!!!!! heck!!!Mind you i guess if they had school shut they might not have had much schooling if they didn't go in at very low temps!! Makes us look like wimps - although maybe they clear the roads and pavements quicker in Alaska!!!

[BleakMidwinter]

I was going to suggest that Alaska is in the USA and they tend to use Fahrenheit so maybe it was only -51F - but a quick google tells me that is still -46C so it doesn't make much difference!

I suspect they are so set-up for it, there, though - I doubt they bother clearing roads but just switch across to snowmobiles and snowshoes and so on. They probably exclaim in horror at kids in the southern states going to school in 100F temperatures

[NorthernRab]

More signs starting to show even on ECM - stick with it folks.

Scary snows in Alaska etc - don't think i'd fancy walking to school in -51C!!!!!! heck!!!Mind you i guess if they had school shut they might not have had much schooling if they didn't go in at very low temps!! Makes us look like wimps - although maybe they clear the roads and pavements quicker in Alaska!!!

Maybe this intense cold will knock some sense in to Sarah Palin

[blitzen]

http://iceagenow.info/2012/01/bitter-cold-wave-grips-northern-india-140-dead/

Not just Alaska it seems!

[thebigyin]

Hi all

Not been on much nor posted, but been keeping up with this thread at least. Not much to report for the NE. Been fairly benign weather really the last few weeks. No snow, a few frosts, mainly dry. Escaped any major winds. Quite dull really, like me!

I have been keeping an interested eye on the models and it is starting to get my attention now for the first time this winter. Lots of twists and turns and not really sure of a prolonged cold outbreak but looking forward to at least a proper cold spell which I am getting more hopeful of. Just about to enter my favourite 6 week spell for snow - from next week and for the next 6 weeks. Here is hoping!

cheers

[edo]

Non scientific post to say walking across the queens bridge in Perth and feels Baltic and wondering where my gloves are for the first time in a while...surprised so quiet as snow potential coming into 7 day range although that is deep FI at the current way models performing

[Hairy Celt]

Still wild scatter on ensembles after the 16th although there seems to be a tendency for a slight tightening about the milder options. Pfff.

I wonder if independence would bring us colder weather? I'm going to petition for an option on the voting form:

Do you think Scotland should have full independence from Westminster, if we can arrange for 30 snow days a year for low-lying areas?

(12z looks even crappier than the 6z...)

Edited January 11, 2012 by Hairy Celt

[A Winter's Tale]

GFS run, rubbish until 384hrs where there was a half-decent SEly but it doesn't have enough support to be used as a straw to clutch. I'm beginning to lose hope a decent cold snap during Winter, but I do believe that potentially Spring could be quite good, infact we might even have a big freeze for March.

My reasons for my lack of optimism about Winter and my positivity about Spring is all to do with how things been and what they are looking.

The PV and state of the stratosphere: An SSW for December, then January, now no one knows when or will it happen. If it does, I feel it could be quite late.

Yep, my feeling is that the Azores Hi, zonal train and massive PV will continue into February before we see an SSW an have perhaps a significant cold snap for March.

So, I'd like to know what EVERYBODY'S THOUGHTS are on winter and whether there are any reasons to believe to why there will be a signifcant cold snap come Feb.

[Northernlights]

Right here goes my own farm based winter weather outlook; be prepared for a big change to at least much colder, possibly snowy weather coming out of the blue in the next week. How do I know this? Well the wintering sheep who are normally very placid cheviots went racing round the field all morning doing their special four feet all off the ground leaps in the air.Much more reliable than computer models.To back this up I was speaking to a contract shepherd this afternoon who said all the thousands of sheep he manages and looks after were all acting up in the same way as he went round them today.

[Hairy Celt]

[...]the wintering sheep [...] doing their special four feet all off the ground leaps in the air [...].

Might that not just mean that spring is in the air?

[lorenzo]

Right here goes my own farm based winter weather outlook; be prepared for a big change to at least much colder, possibly snowy weather coming out of the blue in the next week. How do I know this? Well the wintering sheep who are normally very placid cheviots went racing round the field all morning doing their special four feet all off the ground leaps in the air.Much more reliable than computer models.To back this up I was speaking to a contract shepherd this afternoon who said all the thousands of sheep he manages and looks after were all acting up in the same way as he went round them today.

You did write NL that we would pay for all the mild weather eventually - think you will be right, and you can trust in the Cheviot 12z run more than some of the pub runs served up.. !

[LomondSnowstorm]

GFS run, rubbish until 384hrs where there was a half-decent SEly but it doesn't have enough support to be used as a straw to clutch. I'm beginning to lose hope a decent cold snap during Winter, but I do believe that potentially Spring could be quite good, infact we might even have a big freeze for March.

My reasons for my lack of optimism about Winter and my positivity about Spring is all to do with how things been and what they are looking.

The PV and state of the stratosphere: An SSW for December, then January, now no one knows when or will it happen. If it does, I feel it could be quite late.

Yep, my feeling is that the Azores Hi, zonal train and massive PV will continue into February before we see an SSW an have perhaps a significant cold snap for March.

So, I'd like to know what EVERYBODY'S THOUGHTS are on winter and whether there are any reasons to believe to why there will be a signifcant cold snap come Feb.

Reasons for hopefulness :

1)it's the 11th of January. Even the furthest out pie in the sky FI chart is still for January.

2)the degree of uncertainty in the models is baffling. The GFS and UKMO were reasonable at 00Z but suddenly flipped at 12Z, the ECM this morning decided to jump on board having shown nothing of any promise for days and yesterday evening it looked like our hopes had been dashed again after promise earlier on (or something like that, I'm losing track of the days here). Fantasy Island is no more than maybe 96 hours out, and in these situations I'd be tempted to pay more attention to FAX charts and the NOAA update than the models.

3) The human guidance I spoke of is, so far, in disagreement with the 12Z (so far) output. The NOAA and most other forecasters see the vortex as weakening and backing west, and although we might just end up in the position where that dastardly failed Scandi high could end up costing us a week or so, I can't see us missing out for the next 20 days, never mind the next 50.

4) The EP flux forecast isn't as poor as previously, so the downwelling of the warming will most likely be helpful to further weakening and perhaps disintegrating the vortex completely. Even Brickfielder, who urged caution a few days ago, suggests a colder spell with a reload into February.

5) Once the strat. warms at this stage, it is unlikely to cool majorly in February, so the vortex, once weakened, and particularly if total disintegration occurs, isn't going to recover easily. GP suggested it may not return this side of summer, so the chances of major 'zonality' and the raging northerly jet with dark pink as we've seen so often just won't happen.

6) The sheep in Moray are jumping around! That's either one heck of a cold spell or the Mayans have got it right (the second sign that apocalypse is afoot by the way would be summer temperatures in excess of 23C at Glasgow Airport)....

Edited January 11, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[Northernlights]

Hi Hairy Celt with regards to spring in the air.

Probably the few spring like days at Christmas which were so mild that all the grass fields put on some fresh growth and the sheep are now benefitting from this with increased feed value..

But some of the old timers I have known over the years have always said that sheep acting like this are fortelling a change in the weather to something less benign and in my own experience it is usually correct more than about 50%of the time even if it is only wild wet stormy weather that arrives and as I type the wind seems to about gale force again. Currently 9.1c.

Edited January 11, 2012 by Northernlights

[NorthernRab]

Am I the only who feels like doing this to the Model Output Discussion thread at times?

[Hairy Celt]

Am I the only who feels like doing this to the Model Output Discussion thread at times?

No, I limit myself to very quick scans these days after having an explosive post deleted a couple of years ago!

[Scottish-Irish Skier]

I wonder if independence would bring us colder weather? I'm going to petition for an option on the voting form:

Do you think Scotland should have full independence from Westminster, if we can arrange for 30 snow days a year for low-lying areas?

Snow is currently a 'reserved matter' and it would be illegal for Scotland to have some without prior permission; otherwise someone could challenge it in court.

Models keep throwing up ideas. Some very nice, but all over the place in FI outputs. Something will come our way soon...

End of today's ECM no bad:

http://cdn.nwstatic....ecmt850.192.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....ecmt850.216.png

http://cdn.nwstatic....ecmt850.240.png

ensembles keep saying 'it will be generally colder in FI'. They do this every day... <_<

http://cdn.nwstatic....0Midlothian.png

Edited January 11, 2012 by scottish skier

[lorenzo]

Am I the only who feels like doing this to the Model Output Discussion thread at times?

It's an exciting time and folks are eager to see a blast of proper winter, this heightened expectation has been brought about by the amazing snow and cold over the last couple of years. I think the model mood thread will pick up the pace soon and is doing well as the non-model posts like ' winter's over' or ' welcome to siberia' one liner's on certain charts etc will move in there, eventually it will balance out..

Can you imagine the Ramping when an Easterly is inside 84 hrs !!?

For me that is part of why this pattern shift is great to watch unfolding, it just shows how enthusiastic people are about the weather. It surely must be a strange breed to mull over every 3hr segment of the latest GFS delivery, or hang about til the wee hours to see some wild Perturbations on the ensembles. Am guilty as charged, it's an addictive rollercoaster , with at present the welcome addition of twists like the plot of a good movie, tv show, each run is like a new episode in a series... am hoping the next episode is filmed in Siberia..

[November13]

Snow is currently a 'reserved matter' and it would be illegal for Scotland to have some without prior permission; otherwise someone could challenge it in court. Models keep throwing up ideas. Some very nice, but all over the place in FI outputs. Something will come our way soon... End of today's ECM no bad: http://cdn.nwstatic....ecmt850.192.png http://cdn.nwstatic....ecmt850.216.png http://cdn.nwstatic....ecmt850.240.png ensembles keep saying 'it will be generally colder in FI'. They do this every day... <_< http://cdn.nwstatic....0Midlothian.png

Yes you would have to have that ratified by Westminster as they would challenge this even if 90% of us voted for it. Cause we didnae ask their permission. I think the lack of snow this year is all the hot air doon the road!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Am I the only who feels like doing this to the Model Output Discussion thread at times?

Not at all, I think we all feel like that sometimes. I think people perhaps take it a bit too seriously at times and hence we end up with a lot of tension when we are faced with such a large degree of uncertainty. Having said earlier that models weren't struggling more than usual, I think it has to be said that I've rarely seen this much flip-flopping from the models. It's pretty damned exciting though!

A decent 12Z from the ECM with some decent prospects longer term, certainly at least as promising as what it was showing two or three days ago. The background signals look as good, perhaps better, than when the easterly was on the charts and that's the main thing. As I recall last week the models were still stubbornly showing a +ve AO. That has pretty much changed now http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/ao.sprd2.gif The key thing to remember is timing - the flip was widely progged for mid-late January and I don't feel there's any reason to dismiss that - YET. My own forecast was for a stubbornly slow burning evolution with a lot of frustrating 'so near and yet so far' charts before we end up getting somewhere by the end of the month.

[Hairy Celt]

A good soundtrack helps with keeping perspective while trawling the MT. Currently finding 'return of the supercops' is rather useful.

Reserved matter... We'll just have the snowy bits and they can reserve the rest!

20:42 edit - just starting to lash it down. Get it done before I go out in the morning please!

Edited January 11, 2012 by Hairy Celt