Scotland - Regional Discussion - January

[Snowlover2]

I can't wait for some snow but for some reason my head is saying "be careful what you wish for" :/ lol

[blitzen]

I just loved that GFS 12z run! More please. Hope ECM is a beaut!

[LomondSnowstorm]

Not overwhelming support for the operational easterly per say by any means but more importantly there is an almost overwhelming support for the PV to begin making its way out of Greenland to the south http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_panel.php?modele=0&mode=1&ech=168 I'd say THAT is the most crucial part of the puzzle - it's all well and good having a Scandi high bringing an easterly but unless the high is able to build northwestwards it's just going to sink as it did in the operational. A southerly tracking jet as shown by the control run would reinforce heights to the north and ensure we don't end up stranded in no mans land with a mid latitude high sat over us.

Lorenzo - do you reckon there's something in the idea of the PV regrouping towards the end of the month or is that just the models going into 'default' zonal mode? I'm tempted to say the latter because surely with the warming forecast to take place this wouldn't be allowed to happen but the EP flux is worrying me a bit.... http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-21-1-384.png?12

[A Winter's Tale]

Apparently BBC weather mentioned we might see arctic air by the weekend with the jet going south. The last time I heard the BBC so confident about such an event that far out was in November 2010. Here's hoping!

[A Winter's Tale]

ECM was apparently rubbish but from what I've heard, the GFS has been better this winter than the ECM.

Still, any easterly before February is a bonus with no SSW yet. February looks like a decent bet for cold and snow.

[Guest]

I need to get back into the chart watching but it would look as if something's going to give in the next couple of weeks.

[Hairy Celt]

Yes it was a cracking day after a sharp mid-morning shower. One of the best. Look out, payback time tomorrow.

[Norrance]

Looks like briefly colder on Friday after a mild week but pretty average at the weekend. Becoming changeable afterwards but no definate blocking inb the right places yet on offer.

Here currently 4.5C and clear after a max of 9.1C this afternoon.

Re that snow in Western Austria I see that St Anton [my fav skiing area in days gone by] is now showing 545 cms on the upper slopes after the recent snows. Was once there in the nineties with an average of 6 mtrs snow on the upper slopes. It did come at a price though with avalanches causing several casualties in the preceding weeks. Great place for skiing and apres ski but not so good for beginners or early intermediates.

[LomondSnowstorm]

The ECM is just dire, full stop - the polar vortex is absolutely dominant to the north and northwest and with the high returning to the Azores we'd struggle to get anything cold before the end of the month http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2012010912/ECM1-240.GIF?09-0

I suspect we may not end up with an easterly but the ECM looks far too flat to be believed. Even if we fail to get the easterly the first time around I suspect we would have another chance not far after through mid atlantic height rises. The UKMO tends to be the 'spoiler' model when the others get carried away but in this instance it has moved very slightly towards the GFS, which is a positive. No doubt the drama will continue into tomorrow.

[Cheggers]

Cracking day after a Grey damp start. Pleasant sunshine and almost no wind.

Contrast to last week..... here is my Niece standing by the garden tree that fell the "right way" during the storm (she is 5'6")

PS, anyone driven the farm track that is the A9 recently?

Edited January 9, 2012 by Cheggers

[lorenzo]

Pv....

Looking at GP latest post - it's off on it's holidays at long last, long live the block(s). Chiono updated on the strat thread re the equatorward tendency and there is a good chart showing the main PV bleeding energy in that direction. The main paper from Americanwx indicates poleward propagation of waves is the most important factor, however it looks like this vortex is being tipped closer and closer to the edge - completely gone at the top level. Here's hoping it's a full blown disintegration not a temporary displacement / split.

Contrast to last week..... here is my Niece standing by the garden tree that fell the "right way" during the storm (she is 5'6")

Outstanding Cheggers - a real life whomping willow !

Edited January 9, 2012 by lorenzo

[LomondSnowstorm]

Looking at GP latest post - it's off on it's holidays at long last, long live the block(s). Chiono updated on the strat thread re the equatorward tendency and there is a good chart showing the main PV bleeding energy in that direction. The main paper from Americanwx indicates poleward propagation of waves is the most important factor, however it looks like this vortex is being tipped closer and closer to the edge - completely gone at the top level. Here's hoping it's a full blown disintegration not a temporary displacement / split.

I concur, hopefully even if the propagation to lower levels isn't brilliant combined with previous warmings (which I believe took place when the EP flux was poleward) it will be enough to fully break up the vortex. And if not, at least keep the equator-bound warming away from our side of the pole - it would be horribly ironic if the SSW had the effect of reinforcing heights to the south!

Anyway, GP's in good spirits tonight it seems and not without good reason - the CPC 8-14 day height anomalies map is quite promising and I think reinforces what I was saying about the initial easterly not necessarily being vital as long as we can get decent heights to the north and the jet to track to the south of it.

[Cheggers]

Outstanding Cheggers - a real life whomping willow !

Tree has seen many a generation. Grounds is where the Stone of Scone was alleged to have bee hidden when bought back in 1950.

Anyhoooo temp @ 6C with cloud rolling in, breeze has picked up as well. Was 4C when I left work.

Not sure if anyone sbscribes to WindyWilson on facebook. He was the chap STV new interviewed after he predicted Decembers snaw several weeks in advance, well he seems to be getting excited about 17th to 20th, which ties in with a few of the models, so will be interesting to see what transpires.

[LomondSnowstorm]

Tree has seen many a generation. Grounds is where the Stone of Scone was alleged to have bee hidden when bought back in 1950.

Anyhoooo temp @ 6C with cloud rolling in, breeze has picked up as well. Was 4C when I left work.

Not sure if anyone sbscribes to WindyWilson on facebook. He was the chap STV new interviewed after he predicted Decembers snaw several weeks in advance, well he seems to be getting excited about 17th to 20th, which ties in with a few of the models, so will be interesting to see what transpires.

I've heard of him, I'm not entirely sure how his methodology works but he does seem to have had slightly more success than your average internet punter (exactaweather comes to mind...).

[Cheggers]

I've heard of him, I'm not entirely sure how his methodology works but he does seem to have had slightly more success than your average internet punter (exactaweather comes to mind...).

He is quite a laugh, and outspoken at times, but has been very good with his reports and forecasts.

[Ruzzi]

Not sure if anyone sbscribes to WindyWilson on facebook. He was the chap STV new interviewed after he predicted Decembers snaw several weeks in advance, well he seems to be getting excited about 17th to 20th, which ties in with a few of the models, so will be interesting to see what transpires.

Could you send me the link to his page please mate?

[Cheggers]

Could you send me the link to his page please mate?

https://www.facebook.com/windywilson.weather.roads?ref=ts

[LomondSnowstorm]

Short term downgrade on the 18Z http://176.31.229.22...18-0-168.png?18 No easterly, partly due to shortwaves mucking around in the Channel. BUT, as SM says, heights over Svalbard are intact, and the potential for FI remains http://176.31.229.22...18-0-180.png?18

Undercutting possible I reckon, but don't hold it against me if the second half turns into a zonal nightmare!

http://176.31.229.22...18-0-240.png?18

And right on cue... (the undercutting, not the zonal that is)

Stonking run tonight http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gfs/runs/gfsnh-2012010918-1-336.png?18

Again, the PV returning to the pole is a tad worrying for the longer term but the evolution proposed by both the 12Z control and the 18Z is just sublime. Blizzards for all with those!

Edited January 9, 2012 by LomondSnowstorm

[lorenzo]

18z GFS has been on the Vodkas !

[A Winter's Tale]

Quite amazing! I sure hope it happens but whatever happens, it sure is encouraging. Best chart of winter too!

This would bring quite a bit of snow to Scotland.

Still pretty amazing.

Now, it would be great if someone could clarify what this would mean for Scotland. Still it's a great chart with essence of December 2010.

Still great interms of uppers, but what about snow?

Still great for cold. Snow?

[blitzen]

blimey! what a run, I am lost for words! It would be fantastic if that came off. Changes are definitely afoot!

[lorenzo]

Some insane charts out there. PV off to sample the unseasonable warm Spanish winter !

Am loving this pub run

[LomondSnowstorm]

Quite amazing! I sure hope it happens but whatever happens, it sure is encouraging. Best chart of winter too!

....

First chart - yes, very snowy, big juicy frontal snow followed by major troughs. Second chart - yep, very cold uppers. The third chart - probably some fairly hefty showers around due to very cold uppers but not getting far inland. The last two would see showers dying back to the coast but we'd be sick of the stuff by that stage.

Tonight's control run is what happens when there isn't quite enough blocking initially

http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gens-0-1-216.png?18

Gets there in the end, just a lot messier.

[Polar Gael]

Lock-in for the pub run this evening. If it comes off, could be a true "winter of two halves". FI looks like a an 80s classic.

http://nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120109/18/276/h850t850eu.png

Bank!

[LomondSnowstorm]

The control finishes with this flourish - just as it looks like it might breakdown, the trough undercuts, the Svalbard heights return and we have the mother of all reloads into February http://176.31.229.228/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-0-1-384.png?18

But I'm getting ahead of myself. There are still hurdles to be overcome, notably in getting the ECM on board and having a set of 00Zs and a set of 12Zs that look even vaguely the same after T +144. However, we are now in a situation where it's more likely than not we'll get some kind of cold outbreak to our shores. It might end up shortlived or disappointingly shallow, but the potential in the charts this evening suggests something very special may be in the pipeline