The Far North Of England Regional Discussion Thread

[recklessabandon]

latest GFS models have the HP sliding slightly further south and slower at bringing the deep cold in, also a much slacker flow from mid week, notable difference by T+72. 12z has been the better of the GFS models of late so we will see how it does...

ps. cant wait to go and watch all the point-scoring on the MOD thread now.....

Why temps/dps still highish? shouldn't they be lower? and cold rain here

significant modification from the relatively warm North Sea holding up the temps

[Andy_]

Had a couple flurries of grauple whilst at Northumbria uni around 2 hours ago

[Snowstorm1]

latest GFS models have the HP sliding slightly further south and slower at bringing the deep cold in, also a much slacker flow from mid week, notable difference by T+72. 12z has been the better of the GFS models of late so we will see how it does...

ps. cant wait to go and watch all the point-scoring on the MOD thread now.....

significant modification from the relatively warm North Sea holding up the temps

thought so

[recklessabandon]

thought so

air flow is wandering across the sea too slowly, I wouldn't expect anything remarkable out of this set-up, in fact, even when the colder uppers arrive, I suspect we will be under almost constant cloud cover in the NE with occasional graupal and sleet with only slight or moderate frosts. We will all be hoping for a good old Pm flow to give us some sunshine by Friday!!!

[Isolated Frost]

A few reports of snow around washington above 100m asl.

Stratocumulus and light sleet/drizzle here.

[recklessabandon]

maybe, just maybe, by late thursday and early Friday the colder uppers will create sufficient temperature differential to spark real convection off the North Sea

[Mick ne durham]

A few reports of snow around washington above 100m asl.

Stratocumulus and light sleet/drizzle here.

Heavy Sleet here.

[Alex95]

Tbh I've almost given up on this cold spell now; just as the convection gets going later on Thursday the easterly will sink into France.

Snizzle again.

Edited January 30, 2012 by alza

[Snowstorm1]

Yup game over im gutted

[seabreeze86]

Yup game over im gutted

Looks that way at the minute, can believe the turn around in the modles sayin that anybody having dejavu sure this happend a few years back aswell easterlies are brillient if they come they are so difficult to achive.

[Snowstorm1]

Looks that way at the minute, can believe the turn around in the modles sayin that anybody having dejavu sure this happend a few years back aswell easterlies are brillient if they come they are so difficult to achive.

Mate Im sorry for my negativity but im so down in the dumps atm

[recklessabandon]

Wait for the ensembles, I am expecting some major scatter from T+72 to T+90. The models show a very messy breakdown and I am personally not convinced they have a full handle on it yet. There is a trend towards reload after the weekend, and, I for one cannot see the Atlantic smashing through this block as easily as has been suggested today.

I made a comment on the MOD thread earlier today about model consistency and performance, although the GFS 12z has been generally good of late, they have all had some MAJOR wobbles in the last 4 weeks with some very poor performances at times, so don't get too worried what is shown after Thursday/Friday just yet....if it is the same on Wednesday 18z and Thursday 00z, then worry....

[seabreeze86]

Mate Im sorry for my negativity but im so down in the dumps atm

On a positive note there do seem to be a few showers popping up again in the north sea lets see if they get here and fall as snow instead of rain

[Isolated Frost]

Some light snow a few moments ago-- dew point at 0.0c.

[Cloud 10]

Had a snow shower here a short while ago which has left a light covering.Looking at the radar

it seems i have been extremely fortunate!

[4wd]

That narrow band of sleety snow grains on radar is a weak occluded front and the air is probably drier behind it.

I expect the murk will clear shortly.

Humidity here has dropped from 96% to 92%

[recklessabandon]

looks like some shower activity developing approx 50 miles offshore now too behind the occlusion

[Snowstorm1]

temp rising dp decreasing wtf

[4wd]

temp rising dp decreasing wtf

Is your wind picking up?

I think the maritime influence is stronger now near the coast.

Humidity 86% and dewpoint -0.5C here now but it's still +1.5C

I see Whitby is on 3.4C on the cliff top, and Redcar Prom on 4.4C

[Airedalejoe]

Local BBC forecast just stated.....cold front coming in from west on friday bringing snow which will turn to rain but then maybe turn back to snow again , huge uncertainty with regards to end of week!

[Thundery wintry showers]

TWS, would I be right in saying this easterly would be a 1b on your classification of them?

3.2c (1.0c dew point) here with a surface light NE wind. Drizzle.

Ah yes, the old "easterly" classification! I gave up on that one a while ago, as it was basically just a long-winded method of saying that the more unstable the airflow, the higher the convective towers (hence more likelihood of sunshine and showers rather than dry cloudy weather with stratocumulus) and that the amount of moisture picked up off the North Sea also helps generate precipitation.

Convection is pretty much stifled by an inversion at the moment, with stratocumulus and just the odd patch of towering cumulus here and there. There was a light shower of drizzly rain/sleet at 3-4pm and a little bit of drizzle around midday, with a surprising maximum of 4.1C here due to the wind off the sea. Tomorrow looks like being a dry cloudy day bar a few pieces of snizzle, with shower activity perhaps pepping up late on Wednesday.

I am not holding out much hope for Thursday/Friday. If the GFS verifies many of us will have about 2-5 centimetres of snow by Friday, but the other models have reverted back to showing the easterly flow largely fizzling out by Thursday, which would mean plenty of snow showers out in the North Sea but limited progress onshore. Frontal snow looks pretty likely at the weekend though.

[Snowstorm1]

Ah yes, the old "easterly" classification! I gave up on that one a while ago, as it was basically just a long-winded method of saying that the more unstable the airflow, the higher the convective towers (hence more likelihood of sunshine and showers rather than dry cloudy weather with stratocumulus) and that the amount of moisture picked up off the North Sea also helps generate precipitation.

Convection is pretty much stifled by an inversion at the moment, with stratocumulus and just the odd patch of towering cumulus here and there. There was a light shower of drizzly rain/sleet at 3-4pm and a little bit of drizzle around midday, with a surprising maximum of 4.1C here due to the wind off the sea. Tomorrow looks like being a dry cloudy day bar a few pieces of snizzle, with shower activity perhaps pepping up late on Wednesday.

I am not holding out much hope for Thursday/Friday. If the GFS verifies many of us will have about 2-5 centimetres of snow by Friday, but the other models have reverted back to showing the easterly flow largely fizzling out by Thursday, which would mean plenty of snow showers out in the North Sea but limited progress onshore. Frontal snow looks pretty likely at the weekend though.

Is that both UKMO and Ecm showing this ? So only Gfs?

[JP1972]

TWS

Will frontal snow at the weekend fall at all levels or most likely just away from the coast?

[recklessabandon]

I would not put that much reliance into what is being forecast this weekend at the moment. There is still significant uncertainty in the models, and although we are trending toward a more Atlantic influence, it is far from certain, with a cold reload possible.

The MWIS forecast which tends to be pretty balanced and pragmatic read as follows:

"Cold across all mountains until late in the week - and after what may be a milder interlude in Scotland - may continue to

envelop Britain next week as well. Terrain will be substantially frozen and snow showers on some eastern mountains.

Generally winds on the mountains fairly light.

However, this coming weekend, fronts may well encroach into/across Scotland, with snow and low cloud spreading in. It

may intermittently turn milder, with thaw of lying snow, at least on lower slopes, before the thaw slows or comes to a halt

again into next week."

Make of that what you will.

[JP1972]

GP's latest thoughts on the MO thread suggests a reload after a milder blip over the weekend. He mentions the probability of a sustained cold period through February. John Holmes supports this view which gives me confidence that this could be the case.

I hope he's right because I genuinely don't see this current set up we're in now delivering anything of note for us.

Very cloudy out there tonight but still no precipitation.

Edited January 30, 2012 by JP1972