The Far North Of England Regional Discussion Thread

[seabreeze86]

Temp 3.5 here with broken cloud not even close to a frost, might get some flurries tonight which will do me as there hasent even been a showflake here since december 2010

[Cloud 10]

Latest sat pic shows the cloud becoming much more broken up over the north sea and

some convective looking cloud appearing west of norway,so maybe something will

show up on the radar later in the day.

Desperation now setting in. :lol:

[doggy123]

Awful period of weather grim and cold lets hope the skies clear so we can at least muster a frost!

[4wd]

Awful period of weather grim and cold lets hope the skies clear so we can at least muster a frost!

It's not awful, it's colder than average and bright, crisp and sunny today.

Late winter often has long periods of rather grey weather with a chilly but not frigid continental feed.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Today is brighter in Cleadon, the stratocumulus sheet is quite fragmented and there are some sunny intervals coming through, but I would have described the last two days as "awful"- persistently overcast, a nagging south-easterly wind and temperatures of 3-4C by day and night, just a little bit of sleety drizzle at 3-4pm on Monday. Depends on your perception of "awful" of course.

It was always likely that the colder continental airmass would be associated with clear intervals and snow showers- the problem is that the showers probably won't reach us because of the sinking high. I don't quite agree with Geordiesnow that the UKMO was the most accurate though- it was a toss-up between the UKMO (which was a bit too progressive) and the ECMWF (slightly under-progressive) with GFS lagging behind.

Cloudy again, 2C, still nothing On the radar. This has possibly been the biggest let down since early Feb 2001, although even then I had 20cm where I was in Longhorsely.

I remember early Feb 2001 well- about 50mm of sleet fell at Cleadon with no accumulations, with lying snow just a few miles inland. The freeze-up during the first few days of March 2001 compensated for it though, when the snowfalls were mostly concentrated near the east coast and the temperature fell to -10C overnight 2nd/3rd.

Regarding wintertime easterly setups, an easterly delivered by an eastward-ridging Greenland high they are much more reliable sources of "sunshine and snow showers" conditions than via westward-ridging Russian highs, with the westward-ridging Scandinavian high falling between the two. I have quite often remarked in other threads that the emphasis on the Greenland high is also a large part of the reason why December 2009, January 2010 and December 2010 were relatively sunny months away from the south-east, and this was also a factor behind the relatively sunny winter of 1962/63. A block to the east is more likely to provide long runs of dry cloudy days, even on the occasions when it periodically gives us heavy snowfalls.

[Geordiesnow]

People are claiming in this thread to be dissapointed by this cold snap but if you read the charts properly, then you would of seen snowfall has always been limited to non existant. I said the reasons why many times already so I'm not repeating it but I think some of you got fooled of some overramping by some members I'm afraid. I have to admit, if the earlier GFS charts were accurate, I would believe we may of seen some shower activity but perhaps not the constant full of North Sea showers we would normally see but with an easterly breeze it would help to drift any showers inland. Some also need to learn that theres more to it than just have cold air over a warmer sea.

This easterly has thus far failed to surprise me snowfall wise anyways because I was always wary the UKMO could be right and whilst there was one ECM run which did agree with the GFS, most of the time, the main instability easterly flow was always going to head into France and this has not changed.

[Snowstorm1]

Snow chance tonight? Seems awful lot of negativity in here no change there....

[Backtrack]

Snow chance tonight? Seems awful lot of negativity in here no change there....

Close to zero, the flow is just simply too dry. There's nothing there to spark the showers off.

Your dewpoint is -7.2C, did you really expect any showers to form with the dewpoint below -7C?!

[Teesdale]

Max 1.4c. Doesn't feel cold in the increasingly strong sunshine.

Never had high hopes for this spell of weather. Yet surprised at lack of real cold and frosts so far in the NE.

Roll on spring, perhaps that will provide some dynamic weather.

[Snowstorm1]

Tommorrow evening snow few cm forecast by bbc

Close to zero, the flow is just simply too dry. There's nothing there to spark the showers off.

Your dewpoint is -7.2C, did you really expect any showers to form with the dewpoint below -7C?!

Yes :$

[Backtrack]

Tommorrow evening snow few cm forecast by bbc

Yes :$

There's no moisture, there won't be any showers.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I

People are claiming in this thread to be dissapointed by this cold snap but if you read the charts properly, then you would of seen snowfall has always been limited to non existant. I said the reasons why many times already so I'm not repeating it but I think some of you got fooled of some overramping by some members I'm afraid. I have to admit, if the earlier GFS charts were accurate, I would believe we may of seen some shower activity but perhaps not the constant full of North Sea showers we would normally see but with an easterly breeze it would help to drift any showers inland. Some also need to learn that theres more to it than just have cold air over a warmer sea.

This easterly has thus far failed to surprise me snowfall wise anyways because I was always wary the UKMO could be right and whilst there was one ECM run which did agree with the GFS, most of the time, the main instability easterly flow was always going to head into France and this has not changed.

For me the main problem was always likely to be the ridge of HP to our north sinking south- the GFS 12Z runs were too slow in sinking the ridge south and this allowed a weak easterly flow to accompany the cold air, bringing some snow showers onshore (though probably not enough for more than about 2-5cm) while in reality with the ridge sinking south we are unlikely to get enough of an easterly flow to bring showers onshore.

There were certainly some over in MOD who were ramping up the possibility of snow showers from charts that barely showed an easterly drift.

[Cloud 10]

There may be hope yet!

[Snowstorm1]

There may be hope yet!

WOAH DRULES

Absouletly brilliant upgrades on Ecm/Ukmo/Faxes!

Edited February 1, 2012 by Snowstorm1

[JP1972]

I think I've learned my lesson during this cool spell, and that is to disregard Steve Murr's sensationalist hopecasts

Actually, if anyone else were to post such blatant IMBYist hopecasts I'm sure the posst deleted and eventually membership rejected.

As for this current spell, the temperature in Newcastle is a full 9 to 13 degrees warmer than the November 2010 wintry spell.

Perspective

[Thundery wintry showers]

The FAX charts for Friday are very interesting. The GFS sort of picks up on the Met Office's projected system but shows the associated snowfall staying just off the coast- I don't think it will come to anything, but certainly something to watch.

The -10C 850hPa line hasn't threatened this area of the country yet so I didn't expect it to get particularly cold, but even so temperatures have been higher than I expected, especially overnight. Here at Cleadon last night's minimum was 3.1C, which is actually over a degree higher than the average minimum for January 2012. The lowest daytime maximum of this spell, 3.8C on the 29th January, was higher than on any day from 25th November to 8th December 2010 inclusive.

Note that these temperatures are not that unusual for a half-hearted south-easterly incursion. During the "easterly" second half of January 1996 there were only two air frosts at Cleadon, corresponding to the two snowy days (26th/27th)- other days were relentlessly overcast with temperatures of 2 to 4C by day and night, except for the 28th which had some sunshine.

Regardless of whether or not we get any snow, tomorrow and Friday will be a lot colder than today with clearer skies and lack of wind. The weekend looks like it could bring us some frontal snow although in my experience these bands often struggle to bring much precipitation over to the east of the Pennines.

[Geordiesnow]

Whilst Steve's posts are sensationalist and often bias towards the SE(where he lives!), he does know his stuff regarding the techinical side of things and he knows how to read the models although even he has been caught out sometimes by assuming to quickly what the run is going to show because we had a short term upgrade. Mind you, I did the same once recently and not waited for the run to come out before speculating what might happen.

That FAX chart looks a bit of a mess too me but it would suggest there might be some PPN in EA and the SE and the models have hinted at this to some extent. On the whole though, for all the cold air and the severe cold air so close to our shores, this has been a HUGE opportunity missed to experience an easterly similar to those in the past.

[Thundery wintry showers]

On the whole though, for all the cold air and the severe cold air so close to our shores, this has been a HUGE opportunity missed to experience an easterly similar to those in the past.

Definitely agree with you there!

The North Sea is quite often the final hurdle for those frigid continental airmasses, particularly in setups involving westward-ridging Russian highs. I had a trawl through the synoptic archives for the winters of 1870-1910 recently and there were quite frequent instances of very cold continental air only just failing to make it right across.

[JP1972]

So a grey overcast cool week is the best we can achieve, marvellous!

I will cling on to TWS's mention of a front on Friday because I know for a fact frontal snow will not happen the further east you are.

[NickR]

IS the ECM any good for us though on Saturday and beyond?

[Snowstorm1]

Tomorrow back on again snow showers over NE England according to latest UK update especially by afternoon/evening

[damianslaw]

Tonight looks like delivering some proper cold to Cumbria - Shap is already down to -6 degrees. Compared to recent nights where cloud has prevented temps dropping much below 0 degrees - this morning we had no visible again..., tonight has clear skies and very light winds a perfect recipe for a sharp frost in these parts.

Looking ahead - hoping to see some snow from the front , lets hope it hasn't all turned to rain by Sat morning, mind the event will occur in the early hours of sat so there is a good chance of a snowy morning - but then a thaw later in the day, not my ideal snow set up, but we can get surprising amounts of these set ups.

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Damian, do you think i'll get any snow? im 4-5 miles from the coast

[Snowstorm1]

The North Sea snow machine is beginning to start further south a bit but apparently according to netherlands radar things further north are developing wonder if there is out for us potential surprise for some?

[seabreeze86]

The North Sea snow machine is beginning to start further south a bit but apparently according to netherlands radar things further north are developing wonder if there is out for us potential surprise for some?

Yes they are breaking out further north lets hope for a nice suprise, they seem to be breaking out where the flow is stronger and the 850s are down to -10 or -11.