The Far North Of England Regional Discussion Thread

[I Cumbria Marra I]

c'mon guys, at least you usually get several rounds of snow each winter whereas further south we are lucky to get one or two. The north has more than its fair share of the white stuff in an average winter. Don't begrudge us midlanders/southerners some of the white stuff.

LOL WUT?

[Snowstorm1]

OMG nearly passed out checking the radar is it possible that massive BALL of snow can come inland and paste us?

Probs not knowing our luck but if it did my my my my......

[Alex95]

OMG nearly passed out checking the radar is it possible that massive BALL of snow can come inland and paste us?

Probs not knowing our luck but if it did my my my my......

You may have to see a doctor...

It looks like we might see a few flurries around this evening, but I'd go for a good dusting on the North York Moors near the coast.

EDIT: Looking at the GFS it seems as though this area of snow may be forming where some sort of convergence zone is setting up between the E winds and W winds (look at the UK wind speed / direction on GFS to see what I mean). If this is the case snow certainly won't be affecting us today.

Edited February 2, 2012 by alza

[Mick ne durham]

OMG nearly passed out checking the radar is it possible that massive BALL of snow can come inland and paste us?

Probs not knowing our luck but if it did my my my my......

I don't think we will be that lucky!

[Isolated Frost]

As that colder airstream passes- the Sc sheet has broken up and shower activity has indeed gradually increased. With the light wind, I wouldn't expect much getting past 20 miles inland- but some flurries and light showers are likely this evening.

[Alex95]

As much as I like snow I can't help wishing that our winters were like this:

http://www.accuweath...-weather/347936

6 months of dry, warm weather then 6 months of very hot and humid weather with daily thunderstorms. Bliss!

Edited February 2, 2012 by alza

[Snowstorm1]

You may have to see a doctor...

It looks like we might see a few flurries around this evening, but I'd go for a good dusting on the North York Moors near the coast.

Well I expected nothing on radar bar some flurries Lincs southwards so i nearly fell off my chair! and good news Id be happy to see a dusting if im honest just to see the ground white again be lovely Guess ive got best chances for this then been in the south of the region and close (10miles) from the coast from this event and at the weekend this frontal i could be in the jackpot area!

[Thundery wintry showers]

Looks to me as if the easterly flow has fizzled out- those snowfalls out in the North Sea haven't been getting any closer in the past hour, just hanging around, very close but not quite making it.

[Snowstorm1]

Looks to me as if the easterly flow has fizzled out- those snowfalls out in the North Sea haven't been getting any closer in the past hour, just hanging around, very close but not quite making it.

Any hope or is that curtains for tonight or is alza light snow flurries still likely with dusting?

My main attention is the weekend now however as that could be a massive event or less likely but possible a damp squib!

[Alex95]

Looks to me as if the easterly flow has fizzled out- those snowfalls out in the North Sea haven't been getting any closer in the past hour, just hanging around, very close but not quite making it.

Very annoying, but not surprising. I still think somewhere on the coast in the south of our region could get a flurry as they expand, but I can't see them being blown onshore.

[Snowstorm1]

Very annoying, but not surprising. I still think somewhere on the coast in the south of our region could get a flurry as they expand, but I can't see them being blown onshore.

Very dissapointing but as Im at college atm I will be back on around 5 hoping for an improvement as learnt from previous years sometimes when nothing is predicted snow can happen and did ; my foot last year came from a similarish situation I think...

[Alex95]

Very dissapointing but as Im at college atm I will be back on around 5 hoping for an improvement as learnt from previous years sometimes when nothing is predicted snow can happen and did ; my foot last year came from a similarish situation I think...

I'm fairly sure you've always had your foot?

Edited February 2, 2012 by alza

[Snowstorm1]

I'm fairly sure you've always had your foot?

LOL FOOT OF SNOW

made me laugh mate!

Edited February 2, 2012 by Snowstorm1

[seabreeze86]

Still a light south-east wind here will change i the next few hours thow, the showers on the south of the band still moving painfully slowly eastwards might scrape a flurry out of it but thats about it.

[Alex95]

GFS 12z is an upgrade for the NE as it tips us on the right side of marginal. This chopping and changing proves just how knife edge the situation is for us, but there is certainly the potential for 10cm by the end of Saturday night. The sweet spot for this should be South / East Yorkshire. Having said that I'd suggest that if we do get snow we should make the most of it as it'll be rather slushy by Sunday night, and probably gone by the end of Monday.

[Isolated Frost]

I'd ideally want the pattern a tad further north-west- but I would bank that 12z. Of course it may not lie for long with marginal temps and less cool air on Monday- but potentially it could last a few days- especially if the continental influence reloads.

Right now, I would not predict anything, FAX, NAE, NMM, HIRLAM and more, the mesoscales should deal with this within +24 and will be very interesting to view.

[NickR]

I'd ideally want the pattern a tad further north-west- but I would bank that 12z. Of course it may not lie for long with marginal temps and less cool air on Monday- but potentially it could last a few days- especially if the continental influence reloads.

Right now, I would not predict anything, FAX, NAE, NMM, HIRLAM and more, the mesoscales should deal with this within +24 and will be very interesting to view.

Models (GFS: GME, etc.) seem to be pushing the block ever further west, which is surely excellent for us, with a greater chance of snow and of its stalling around our region... any thoughts from IF or TWS on this??

[Alex95]

Those showers are slowly trundling SW wards at the moment so somewhere like Whitby might get a light covering this evening. We were very close to seeing more widespread showers today, but they never quite made it. Fingers crossed for Saturday night now!

Also it wouldn't take much for another snow event to crop up next week if things are shifted west a little more as the Atlantic is likely to make another attack on Tuesday; after the front on Saturday night any snow which falls may turn a bit mushy but it never really warms up, so the second attack may deliver more snow.

Edited February 2, 2012 by alza

[Snowstorm1]

Those showers are slowly trundling SW wards at the moment so somewhere like Whitby might get a light covering this evening. We were very close to seeing more widespread showers today, but they never quite made it. Fingers crossed for Saturday night now!

Also it wouldn't take much for another snow event to crop up next week if things are shifted west a little more as the Atlantic is likely to make another attack on Tuesday; after the front on Saturday night any snow which falls may turn a bit mushy but it never really warms up, so the second attack may deliver more snow.

Any chance of getting good snow on saturday and covering lasting till tuesday and getting that event too or is that asking for too much :') What at the moment is the time it is predicted to reach here? (i know hard to say but roughly)

[Isolated Frost]

Models (GFS: GME, etc.) seem to be pushing the block ever further west, which is surely excellent for us, with a greater chance of snow and of its stalling around our region... any thoughts from IF or TWS on this??

Indeed. Maybe another little trudge westwards- and then much of NE England, Yorks and Lincs, E Mids and parts of CS England, maybe even E Anglia and SE England at a push if we managed another 100mile shift west.

There is of course the potential for a rather large amount of snowfall, and I think in the pennines, yorkshire dales, and to a lesser extent cheviots and north york moors would get a fair bit of snow for sure. Dew points and 950hpa temps are most important in these situations- and so a 950hpa temp of around -1c should deliver for most urban centres in the region, 0c for most areas above 100-200m and 1c for those at roughly the top of consett or on the hills.

Right now, based on the 12z's so far (GFS, NAE, UKMO and to a lesser extent FAX), I'd say snow and sleet beginning Saturday morning for Cumbria, mostly rain and sleet at the coast, turning to snow in the pennines and generally reaching the NE slowly but surely in the afternoon and evening, initially as snow- after this it's all up for grabs.

NMM a good bet for those who have it on NW Extra.

[recklessabandon]

Consett snow magnet set to full power for Saturday, gonna pull all the ppn out of the sky leaving the SE and EA with a 2mm dusting ( so enough to close the M11...).

Seriously though, 12z has been a bit progressive lately with the push westwards generally, HOWEVER, there are other reasons to be cheerful now and when I have 5 ill be looking at the other models, and the 18z, for continued westward push of the cold, amplification with a gradual north-south orientation of the fronts, and the continuing southerly track of the shortwave off the southern coast of England to cut off the azores high linking up and more 'propping up' of the siberian block....528 Dam Line hangs on for dear life in the latest 12z and pushes back after Sunday....

Edited February 2, 2012 by recklessabandon

[Alex95]

Any chance of getting good snow on saturday and covering lasting till tuesday and getting that event too or is that asking for too much :') What at the moment is the time it is predicted to reach here? (i know hard to say but roughly)

Of course its possible, but we don't even know if we'll get a covering at all yet! The general trend this evening is for the cold to put up more of a fight, which can only be a good sign. FI is probably +48 in these battleground situations; the cold air will hang on in the far SE and the mild air will filter into the far NW, so its anyone's guess what happens for most of the country between.

[recklessabandon]

Of course its possible, but we don't even know if we'll get a covering at all yet! The general trend this evening is for the cold to put up more of a fight, which can only be a good sign. FI is probably +48 in these battleground situations; the cold air will hang on in the far SE and the mild air will filter into the far NW, so its anyone's guess what happens for most of the country between.

'Somewhere' IMHO is going to do very well from this, more due to persistence I think than intensity. I think much of the intensity will be lost as the fronts push up against the what seems to be a slightly resurgent block. I have a feeling the 'angle of attack' will change a little more, with the orientation becoming more longitudinal, if you will. This will be better for us as it will keep us on the right side of the cold with the mild air kept out west.

Plenty of changes to come though......!!!!

[Isolated Frost]

Coldest of the period so far, and with high pressure sinking o/ and the e'ly influence falling, some v low temps are possible around the region tonight and tomorrow morning.

Currently -1.4c with a frigid -5.8c dew point.

[Cloud 10]

Station : B6309 Medomsley

Organisation : Durham County Council

Time : 02.02.2012 18:40 Europe/London

Air Temperature (1) -2.4 °C

Dew Point Temperature (1) -7.4 °C

Relative Humidity (1) 69 %

Looks like a real pipe freezer tonight.

Shame about that precip stuck out in the north sea,just a slight easterly drift would

have given at least costal areas a dusting,as is happening in lincolnshire.

The weekend is looking at the moment.