The Far North Of England Regional Discussion Thread

[Thundery wintry showers]

I think the precipitation belt will bring plenty of snow for the North East late on tomorrow, though maybe just a couple of centimetres in sheltered eastern coastal areas, rather more than that inland. In Cumbria a snowy morning will probably be followed by a sleety afternoon/evening on low ground, but it will probably stay as snow on high ground.

There is a risk of the snow turning back to sleet/rain in the North East early on Sunday. I say "risk" because it could turn the snow cover slushy and then icy, making it more inconvenient and a lot less enjoyable. However the fact that the milder air moves in overnight could reduce the chance of that happening.

[JP1972]

The North East rearely if ever fares well from frontal snow coming from the west.

I see no reason to suggest this 'event' will prove me wrong, but I'd be jolly happy if it did!

[Thundery wintry showers]

It is indeed pretty rare, but there are exceptions. The North East had a pretty heavy wet snowfall from an advancing frontal system on the 4th December 2006, with two to three inches near sea level, as a couple of others mentioned earlier. The 30th December 2005 produced a surprising snowfall following a brief but potent easterly incursion- sleety stuff advanced from the west and turned to snow for a time due to evaporative cooling giving further accumulations. I also remember a heavy, albeit brief, surprise frontal snowfall early on the 12th February 1996, again aided by evaporative cooling as an Atlantic system pushed into not-especially-cold air.

The 23rd November 2008 (the day of the big frontal snowfall down in Norwich- another location which tends to be mainly reliant on North Sea convection for snow) also had some frontal snow up here although it soon turned back to rain as milder air pushed in from the NW.

The North East is certainly a region which is usually favoured more from convective rather than frontal snowfalls but in the world of meteorology there are usually exceptions to the rules. It remains to be seen whether tomorrow's snow will be one of those exceptions though!

[NickR]

So are you thinking the front will be further west, TWS? Given that the forecasts are much less positive for the NE than you are.

[Alex95]

The NAE looks a bit better again on the 06z compared to the 00z, it shows 5cm generally in the NE. The heaviest snow on low ground looks like being E Yorkshire (around Hull?) where 10-15cm is repeatedly being predicted by the NAE. I can't view the NMM unfortunately, but for those that can it should provide an even more accurate picture than the NAE.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I'm looking at the progged temperatures for the North East- about 2C max and getting down below freezing again on Saturday night, though the 12Zs will give a clearer picture.

[NickR]

Let's hope the 12z NAE is the start of a shift back west so the heaviest is over us.

[Snowmaggedon]

Hello there people, just joined the forum today but i have been reading the threads over the past few weeks and have been fascinated by the developments over the last couple of weeks. Anyway, regarding the snow event during this weekend, i have a sneaky feeling that the South of the region might get more than expected. I think this because over the past few years we always seem to get more than initially expected, especially in places such as Middlesbrough.

[Mick ne durham]

What's this starting to show on the Radar???

[Geordiesnow]

I have to admit like, I don't see too much to get excited about for us, I look at the GFS upper air charts and they have uppers of -2 over by 18Z, the warmest part of the day. I think there will be PPN around and for some reason, when the PPN is snow, strange things tend to happen regarding frontal belts, remember the 12th February 2008, loved that event as it was never forecast at all.

This time around, the uppers look too marginal, we don't have any snowcover either to have even lower temps and quite frankly looking at the BBC forecasts, we in the NE will be lucky if we get much at all because of the rain shadow affect.

Wait and see but I can't see it backing westwards now and the cold air is not as stubborn as first forecast either.

[Snowstorm1]

I have to admit like, I don't see too much to get excited about for us, I look at the GFS upper air charts and they have uppers of -2 over by 18Z, the warmest part of the day. I think there will be PPN around and for some reason, when the PPN is snow, strange things tend to happen regarding frontal belts, remember the 12th February 2008, loved that event as it was never forecast at all.

This time around, the uppers look too marginal, we don't have any snowcover either to have even lower temps and quite frankly looking at the BBC forecasts, we in the NE will be lucky if we get much at all because of the rain shadow affect.

Wait and see but I can't see it backing westwards now and the cold air is not as stubborn as first forecast either.

SACRA membership revoked Seriously that is the most negative unlikeliest forecast you have produce perhaps thats the case for Berwick but for us from Durham southwards are going to get alot more than what you suggest

[Alex95]

If we get heavy precipitation it should fall as snow. However, the rain shadow effect is looking increasingly problematic - anywhere North of York is at risk of this problem. As ever though we won't know until this time tomorrow.

The NAE shows 5mm of precipitation in Newcastle but only 3mm on Teesside, maybe just 1-3mm in parts of Northumberland. Compare that to over 15mm in Cumbria, and 10-15mm in Yorkshire.

Edited February 3, 2012 by alza

[shawty1984]

I'm going for rain, for me in Thornaby anyway. This has nothing to do with my knowledge of the weather, just the fact that this area doesn't really do well with snow most of the time. I can just see all these people wanting laying snow and being let down when the rain arrives and turns just to sleet.

[Alex95]

I'm going for rain, for me in Thornaby anyway. This has nothing to do with my knowledge of the weather, just the fact that this area doesn't really do well with snow most of the time. I can just see all these people wanting laying snow and being let down when the rain arrives and turns just to sleet.

Even Teesside could see snow this time though - although it is heavily affected by the sea due to its low altitude, the snow will be less marginal further south, so all of the NE has an equal chance.

[Snowstorm1]

I'm going for rain, for me in Thornaby anyway. This has nothing to do with my knowledge of the weather, just the fact that this area doesn't really do well with snow most of the time. I can just see all these people wanting laying snow and being let down when the rain arrives and turns just to sleet.

Actually alza says we have a much better chance in this setup than normally. + Id argue we have the best chance in this region as further north and west the more likely it is to be rain so for a change we could be in the best place in the region! So what time we now looking at for our region? - to me its looking increasingly likely to hit during the middlesbrough game tommorrow which could cause choas after the game

[shawty1984]

Actually alza says we have a much better chance in this setup than normally. + Id argue we have the best chance in this region as further north and west the more likely it is to be rain so for a change we could be in the best place in the region! So what time we now looking at for our region? - to me its looking increasingly likely to hit during the middlesbrough game tommorrow which could cause choas after the game

What someone says and what happens are two totally different things though. I'm still going for rain/sleet event. I'm more than willing to be proved wrong and I hope I am.

[Snowstorm1]

Snow predicted by ITV Local for the NE 5cm - 10cm even on LOW GROUND.

[Alex95]

Actually alza says we have a much better chance in this setup than normally. + Id argue we have the best chance in this region as further north and west the more likely it is to be rain so for a change we could be in the best place in the region! So what time we now looking at for our region? - to me its looking increasingly likely to hit during the middlesbrough game tommorrow which could cause choas after the game

Actually, I didn't. I just said we all had equal chance, so that I doubted that Teesside would get rain whilst the rest of the NE gets snow. However its looking very marginal, and I suspect it'll be a sleety event with a brief spell of proper snow for a while as those cooler uppers move down. 1-3cm imo, 10cm+ for Yorkshire.

[Snowstorm1]

Actually, I didn't. I just said we all had equal chance, so that I doubted that Teesside would get rain whilst the rest of the NE gets snow. However its looking very marginal, and I suspect it'll be a sleety event with a brief spell of proper snow for a while as those cooler uppers move down. 1-3cm imo, 10cm+ for Yorkshire.

Remember those of us near me are close to Yorkshire and no matter what way you spin it its looking better the further south you go

[Alex95]

Remember those of us near me are close to Yorkshire and no matter what way you spin it its looking better the further south you go

It's only when you get as far south as York that things are looking really promising. Teesside and Tyneside have equal chance when you look at the charts, probably a 50/50 chance.

However, no matter what you post on here won't change what falls from the sky on Saturday. Look at the GFS or NAE and you'll see that the chance of snow is iffy for most of our region, then it suddenly increases when you head much further south.

Edited February 3, 2012 by alza

[Snowstorm1]

It's only when you get as far south as York that things are looking really promising. Teesside and Tyneside have equal chance when you look at the charts, probably a 50/50 chance.

Mate the further south you go the better chance it is I can't belive your trying to deny that. I hope we all get snow but looking at the charts the further south you go the better it is

[Alex95]

Mate the further south you go the better chance it is I can't belive your trying to deny that. I hope we all get snow but looking at the charts the further south you go the better it is

South is better, I'm not denying that. It's just that Teesside isn't south enough to notice a difference. Read edited post above. Sorry if I seem a bit argumentative, it's just that you often seem to misquote people to make it look like they have predicted a Teesside blizzard, then when nothing happens people might point fingers.

Also, FWIW I believe it is very likely we will see some snow, but I'm sure most would be disappointed with 1cm which only lies for an hour.

Edited February 3, 2012 by alza

[shawty1984]

Remember those of us near me are close to Yorkshire and no matter what way you spin it its looking better the further south you go

North Yorkshire not Yorkshire and even then, there is a massive difference between Teesside and what's probably classed as North Yorkshire, mainly being the height difference. Thornaby, at one point was actually classed as North Yorkshire.

[Snowstorm1]

South is better, I'm not denying that. It's just that Teesside isn't south enough to notice a difference. Read edited post above.

Also, FWIW I believe it is very likely we will see some snow, but I'm sure most would be disappointed with 1cm which only lies for an hour.

Actually it could be the NAE shows me just in the snow right on the edge compared to tyne and wear with rain. and yeah I would be

[JP1972]

I just don't see Newcastle (or Thornaby) doing well from this set up.

Local knowledge, certainly for us here in Newcastle suggests nothing of any excitement. May well see some wet snow which as I say from past experience will temporarily see grass verges start to whiten before it fizzles out into a damp drizzly misty mess.