The Far North Of England Regional Discussion Thread

[Snowstorm1]

I think this indicative of the temperature neither rising nor falling.

Obviously I was just wondering the reason why the decline has stopped. Now 0.0c

[P-M]

Just had a tweet of Alex Deakin bbc weather and he thinks the chances of the Toon seeing the white stuff are quote "pretty high"

[PersianPaladin]

I'm predicting patchy sleet tommorow for my area.

[lizmartin1981]

Ive gave up any kind of predictions, if it snows it snows, if it doesnt it doesnt lol. Refusing to get my hopes up

[Geordiesnow]

Frontal makes me nervous but could give twice the pay load what we otherwise could be entitled from a standard sunshine and snow showers easterly.

Don't think thats fully true in all honesty, you could have 2 days of sunshine and snow showers and potentially have more lying snow than what you would get in 6 hours of frontal snowfall. I think frontal snowfall can be interesting but I never experienced more than a couple of hours of persistant snowfall before nevermind 6 hours of it! I highly doubt tomorrow will break that trend either especially with it being so marginal.

Perhaps the best set up is to have clear skies all night then high cloud invading by dawn and thickening up as we go through the morning blocking out any sunshine and keeping the temperature/dewpoint on the low side albeit they will rise anyways with the cloud cover and higher upper air temps.

I'm not building me hopes up on this one really but at least if it goes better than I thought, then at least i will be pleased enough!

[Andy_]

Don't think thats fully true in all honesty, you could have 2 days of sunshine and snow showers and potentially have more lying snow than what you would get in 6 hours of frontal snowfall. I think frontal snowfall can be interesting but I never experienced more than a couple of hours of persistant snowfall before nevermind 6 hours of it! I highly doubt tomorrow will break that trend either especially with it being so marginal.

Perhaps the best set up is to have clear skies all night then high cloud invading by dawn and thickening up as we go through the morning blocking out any sunshine and keeping the temperature/dewpoint on the low side albeit they will rise anyways with the cloud cover and higher upper air temps.

I'm not building me hopes up on this one really but at least if it goes better than I thought, then at least i will be pleased enough!

It's dependant on how good the easterly is really, 2010 is a fairly high standard to beat. And i meant in one go really, as in you generally wouldn't get as much precip out of one hit or miss shower as you would from a front.

I still think if convection had been more apparent over the North Sea this week, which would have delivered us some showers, then this Saturday would still be the defining moment of the cold spell.

This is our last chance before the weather pattern changes again, whether the pattern changes to another favourable outcome again in the not too distant future is for Mother Nature to decide though

Edited February 3, 2012 by Andy163

[peterf]

lots of cloud rolling in here now from the NNW, temp still holding at 0.3c and dosen't look interested in dropping any.

[NickR]

NAE 18z could bring us back into the game. Only 12 hrs out,m but MUCH further W than the 12Z.

[NickR]

Looking awful for us. Upgrades on NAE for the NW, but almost nothing for here. I can only think it's due to the Pennine ppn shadow.

Can anyone offer any positives at this point? Any reasons for hope? I have a bad feeling we'll be waking up on Sunday to pretty much nothing, whilst the NW, Mids, EA and SE have several inches. :-(

What would we need to happen to get a decent lot of snow???

[Alex95]

Looking awful for us. Upgrades on NAE for the NW, but almost nothing for here. I can only think it's due to the Pennine ppn shadow.

Can anyone offer any positives at this point? Any reasons for hope? I have a bad feeling we'll be waking up on Sunday to pretty much nothing, whilst the NW, Mids, EA and SE have several inches. :-(

What would we need to happen to get a decent lot of snow???

I'm happy with the NAE - it looks better than the 12z imo. It looked no better than that for Dec 4th 2008 and we got a decent snowfall from that.

[Isolated Frost]

After looking at the Dec-Jan 2009/10 and Nov/Dec 2011 spells, I have noted the highest thickness levels have been around the Greenland Sea, just SE of Greenland, particularly during the eastward ridge synoptic, S of Greenland at times, especially with vortex disruption, and the 18-24 Dec spell dominated by relatively higher thicknesses o/ Baffin Island- not S Greenland where thicknesses were low due to vortex disruption.

So, large scale thickness rises o/ greenland-iceland area is very much a factor of recent cold Ac spells.

BBC forecast does indeed look promising.

[damianslaw]

Oh where to venture tomorrow... best hadn't venture anywhere as the roads in these parts will quickly become treacherous I imagine - not a day to try and get up over shap or kirkstone pass, or venture into the fells where conditions will be 'whiteout'.

Tomorrow is a very tough one to call for the region as a whole. The front appears to be aligning itself on a N-S axis, which is important as the airflow will be a southerly/southeasterly not a southwesterly - good news for central parts of the region especially pennine districts as this will keep dewpoints low despite the less favourable uppers, but it also means precipitation is unlikely to be particularly heavy in the NE region.

As for Cumbria - central and eastern parts should see a good few hours of snow around early afternoon, and it could be quite heavy thanks to evaporative cooling, however, it will probably turn to sleety wet stuff on its back edge - I'm hoping it will have lost its intensity by then so and not resulting in a slight thaw with the drip drip sound - hope to wake up to a decent cover on Sunday, though it looks like thawing during the day but could be a slow thaw if we maintain the cloud cover.

Tomorrow night will be hazardous - widespread ice everywhere.

Can I also say how I wish we had look north here - not the rubbish bbc northwest news - with rubbish weather presenters and rubbish weather forecasts. Just now BBC NW had snow showers as the headlines - we have a front and therefore snow not showers, I do wonder what planet they are on most of the time.

Lets hope all of us this time tomorrow will be staring onto a scene of a decent snow cover and for us in the west minimal thaw/melt action.

My attention is what is likely to happen mid month - greenland high which is a much better beast in my book than the siberian/russian high - trough and frontal attacks from the north and much less marginal uppers and conditions when precipitation arrives - bring it on!

[Geordiesnow]

Looking awful for us. Upgrades on NAE for the NW, but almost nothing for here. I can only think it's due to the Pennine ppn shadow.

Can anyone offer any positives at this point? Any reasons for hope? I have a bad feeling we'll be waking up on Sunday to pretty much nothing, whilst the NW, Mids, EA and SE have several inches. :-(

What would we need to happen to get a decent lot of snow???

The only positive I can think of is that just watch the radar whilst watching your temperature and dewpoints and hope they don't rise above the snow level!

You never know until happens but I'm still concern by that bubble of warmer air that will be above us on Saturday afternoon so any PPN will surely be of rain/sleet at best? The BBC forecasts do seem to suggest this but I advice all of us to watch the 23:57 as usually in the short term, they use the 18Z UKMO data for one forecast only! May gave us a few more answers than questions hopefully!

[Cloud 10]

The only positive I can think of is that just watch the radar whilst watching your temperature and dewpoints and hope they don't rise above the snow level!

You never know until happens but I'm still concern by that bubble of warmer air that will be above us on Saturday afternoon so any PPN will surely be of rain/sleet at best? The BBC forecasts do seem to suggest this but I advice all of us to watch the 23:57 as usually in the short term, they use the 18Z UKMO data for one forecast only! May gave us a few more answers than questions hopefully!

Can you point me to where that bubble of warmer air is? I can't find it.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Cloud 10

[Geordiesnow]

Can you point me to where that bubble of warmer air is? I can't find it.

Ignore those GFS temp/dewpoint charts because they are nonsence to be quite frank, you can clearly see on WZ that theres a bubble of -2hpa upper air temps as the PPN first arrives between 12PM and 6PM. UKMO, however is slightly colder but the ECM looks similar to the GFS.

Anyways we'll see by this tomorrow but its really is the lack of cold air concerns me more than how much PPN there is.

[Thunder Snow]

What's it looking like for me tomorrow

[JP1972]

I think it's a case of lamp post watching tomorrow.

Watch as the rain left trouser leges by and the dogs cock their legs.

Unless of course you live in Thornaby, boy they will get some sleet

[JP1972]

Ignore those GFS temp/dewpoint charts because they are nonsence to be quite frank, you can clearly see on WZ that theres a bubble of -2hpa upper air temps as the PPN first arrives between 12PM and 6PM. UKMO, however is slightly colder but the ECM looks similar to the GFS.

Anyways we'll see by this tomorrow but its really is the lack of cold air concerns me more than how much PPN there is.

Amen.

Frontal snow + NE England = Bleeurghh.

What's it looking like for me tomorrow

Wet.

Chilly.

You might pull dependant on how thick your beer goggles are after two lager tops

[Cloud 10]

Saving plenty of this for the sleet-mongers tomorrow. :lol:

Unless i have to eat it myself.

[JP1972]

Look, unless there's a large jug of custard to go with that wet, drizzly, grey pie I'm not interested

[Cloud 10]

LOL!

At least it can't miss us!

[JP1972]

Back on topic, that pie is rhubarb isn't it?

Mmmm, nom nom nom

[JP1972]

Actually, in a sad kind of way I'm looking forward to tomorrow.

Just want to see what falls from the sky in this kind of set up.

Regardless, Forest won't lose tomorrow but hopefully my Accmulator comes home!

Enjoy tomorrow folks.

[peterf]

What's it looking like for me tomorrow

a bit blurred lol.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Strangely warm tonight at a "mild" -0.8º.

Meant to be going with my son to watch Carlisle tomorrow, but hoping the forecast might mean that's an unwise trip to take....not because of what the weather will be like in Carlisle, but more what it will be like back home here.