The Far North Of England Regional Discussion Thread

[Snowstorm1]

North Yorkshire not Yorkshire and even then, there is a massive difference between Teesside and what's probably classed as North Yorkshire, mainly being the height difference. Thornaby, at one point was actually classed as North Yorkshire.

Yep I knew that

[peterf]

it's very marginal in my eyes at present.still time for a swing yet though.

the tried and trusted radar,lamp post technique will prevail yet again.

[JP1972]

Just to add, temperatures are certainly looking conducive to wet rather than white

[Snowstorm1]

Look North - Snow 2cm-5cm Low Ground Included even town and city centres ; more patchy in Tyne and Wear Now what did I say... So GOOD LUCK everyone

[Alex95]

North Yorkshire not Yorkshire and even then, there is a massive difference between Teesside and what's probably classed as North Yorkshire, mainly being the height difference. Thornaby, at one point was actually classed as North Yorkshire.

It's from York southwards where the uppers will be most conducive to snow, and these areas will almost certainly get heavy snow. The North York Moors will also do well due to the elevation, but anywhere to the north of that have very marginal conditions indeed, and it could still go either way. SS1 says that south is better, but this only paints half the picture - the reason places further south should get more snow is that the easterly brought in colder uppers to places south of York even as late as yesterday, whereas this didn't happen for the NE so the cold air is less well established, hence the reason why we all will be marginal.

It's kind of like saying you should head south if you want beach weather - this is completely true as by the time you get as far as Africa it'll be warm, but Teesside won't be despite being south!

[Snowstorm1]

Just to add, temperatures are certainly looking conducive to wet rather than white

Wrong Ah I give up with this thread sometimes Ill be back posting tomorrow when some realism is injected into the thread and the mildies are frozed by the snow.

[JP1972]

Aah, Trai Anfield has just said a mix in tyne and wear, basically some snow and some rain.

As I suspected.

Additionally only down to -1c tonight for Newcastle so temperatures should be quite high by the time the precip arrives

[Snowstorm1]

It's from York southwards where the uppers will be most conducive to snow, and these areas will almost certainly get heavy snow. The North York Moors will also do well due to the elevation, but anywhere to the north of that have very marginal conditions indeed, and it could still go either way. SS1 says that south is better, but this only paints half the picture - the reason places further south should get more snow is that the easterly brought in colder uppers to places south of York even as late as yesterday, whereas this didn't happen for the NE so the cold air is less well established, hence the reason why we all will be marginal.

It's kind of like saying you should head south if you want beach weather - this is completely true as by the time you get as far as Africa it'll be warm, but Teesside won't be despite being south!

Dissappointed in you no wonder people don't post.

Aah, Trai Anfield has just said a mix in tyne and wear, basically some snow and some rain.

As I suspected.

Additionally only down to -1c tonight for Newcastle so temperatures should be quite high by the time the precip arrives

See my point now? I wasn't been awkward just saying whats likely

[JP1972]

Btw I'm not a 'mildie' I'm just realistic.

I love the cold and snow but this 'spell' for us has been a total non-event unless tomorrow delivers anything at all.

[P-M]

Aah, Trai Anfield has just said a mix in tyne and wear, basically some snow and some rain.

As I suspected.

Additionally only down to -1c tonight for Newcastle so temperatures should be quite high by the time the precip arrives

No she didn't she said more patchy but it's expected to be snow - at no point did she say a sleety mix! And although it said -1 she actually said -5 Newcastle wasn't even listed is was sunderland...tut tut

Edited February 3, 2012 by Paul-Michael

[JP1972]

No she didn't she said more patchy but it's expected to be snow - at no point did she say a sleety mix!

No she didn't say it, but the graphics on her chart showed it!

[Alex95]

Look North - Snow 2cm-5cm Low Ground Included even town and city centres ; more patchy in Tyne and Wear Now what did I say... So GOOD LUCK everyone

Check more closely - the 12z NAE shows a spell of moderate snow for all of the NE followed by a spell of drizzle. There isn't a 02z frame so you can't watch the drizzle affect your area, but trust me it will. Having said that, 1 hour of light drizzle might not do too much damage if the temperature remains low.

[P-M]

No she didn't say it, but the graphics on her chart showed it!

Ignore em mate nowcasting is the only way. I know how ya feel but to be fair the models are churning some decent runs now in the not so far away timescale....I still think we will go out with a bang this year...if it doesn't deliver tomorrow who knows what next week may bring!! BTW I was only joking on the last posts :-)

[Snowstorm1]

Im going for a bit to calm down as this is ridiculous I was just saying a true statement which Trai even stated in a way saying more patchy for Tyne and Wear but it still remained as snow for all the region Hope everyone gets plenty of snow

[shawty1984]

Dissappointed in you no wonder people don't post.

See my point now? I wasn't been awkward just saying whats likely

What's likely is very miminal lying snow and sleet. I'll come back tomorrow and admit I'm wrong and I hope I am wrong.

[Snowstorm1]

What's likely is very miminal lying snow and sleet. I'll come back tomorrow and admit I'm wrong and I hope I am wrong.

Okay thats fine by me

[Alex95]

Tbh people shouldn't be getting hung up over these TV forecasts as they haven't got a crystal ball either. I'm gonna stop posting for a while until things simmer down in here, but before i leave I would say that my call would be for a spell of snow will affect all of us, but we'll also get a spell of rain or sleet. As I keep saying, nobody knows what will happen so we might as well stop arguing about it.

Also, I wouldn't exactly say I'm a mildie - although my favourite weather type is hot and humid, my second favourite is snowy, and my least favourite is mild. I'm just being realistic. Ciao

Im going for a bit to calm down as this is ridiculous I was just saying a true statement which Trai even stated in a way saying more patchy for Tyne and Wear but it still remained as snow for all the region Hope everyone gets plenty of snow

Here's hoping. Good look everyone!

[JP1972]

I will just add however, that if Trai Anfield were to tell me the whole of the UK was going to experience blizzards apart from me BUT Trai and I were going to spend the whole 'snow' day naked together, I wouldn't be remotely bothered about the white stuff.

Edited February 3, 2012 by JP1972

[Snowstorm1]

I will just add however, that if Trai Anfield were to tell me the whole of the UK was going to experience blizzards apart from me BUT Trai and I were going to spend the whole 'snow' day naked together, I wouldn't be remotely bothered about the white stuff.

Lol make some of your own :')

[Alex95]

Oh one more thing, has anyone seen the 12z GFS? Nice snowy easterly for late next week, and that would be far better than some slushy snow on the back of a failed easterly! It certainly looks as though the rest of February won't be seeing a return to the zonal conditions we've seen so far this winter

[JP1972]

Oh one more thing, has anyone seen the 12z GFS? Nice snowy easterly for late next week, and that would be far better than some slushy snow on the back of a failed easterly! It certainly looks as though the rest of February won't be seeing a return to the zonal conditions we've seen so far this winter

I'd read about it on the MO but have put it on the back burner for now. Don't want to get me hopes up only for us to end up in mild SW's!

[Alex95]

Sorry, I'm back for one more thing - the dew points look favourable at 18z and 00z in our region but definitely not at 21z, but if the precipitation is heavy this rise may be prevented. Very marginal, but it's this rise in dew points associated with a finger of milder 850s which is causing the models to predict a wintry mix for the NE, so if this rise doesn't occur we might do pretty well.

[recklessabandon]

lack of ppn i think will reduce chances of any evaporative cooling, uppers marginal and the timing means uppers will matter, cant rely on resident cold at 3pm.

but biggest problem will be the angle of attack now, from this angle high pennines will put much of the NE in the rain shadow, sorry and all, but high pennines and dales should see a good event, but I think coastal T&W, south east Northumberland, east Durham and Tees-side/Redcar&Cleveland will be really struggling for much ppn at all.

Should be canny in the Yorkshire dales and south pennines though....

[Isolated Frost]

I'd probably estimate that 20m in Tees-side has the same snow chances as 50m in Tyne-side.

I'd probably estimate that a couple of cm's at best on low ground, a sleet-snow-sleet-rain event most likely with some freezing rain possible. 1-3cm for most areas in tyne and wear, co.durham and teesside, more on high ground in derwentside, and the pennines and dales/moors.

Nothing substantial. Still looking towards mid-feb where HLB is much more likely, with height rises twards Greenland enabling Ac air to be dominant rather than Pc air with fronts stalling nearby.

[Geordiesnow]

Sorry, I'm back for one more thing - the dew points look favourable at 18z and 00z in our region but definitely not at 21z, but if the precipitation is heavy this rise may be prevented. Very marginal, but it's this rise in dew points associated with a finger of milder 850s which is causing the models to predict a wintry mix for the NE, so if this rise doesn't occur we might do pretty well.

Or of course any PPN might be gone by then so maybe it won't make a difference?

I'm still going for a rain-snow-rain event for low levels down here, I just can't see for the life of me how it will be an all snow event and to be honest I be surprised if we see much in the way of accumulations although the ground will be very cold so you never know.

I fancy Teesside to be harder hit than Tyneside but it will be down to radar watching at the end of the day. My experience tells me PPN from a WNW'ly direction tends to fizzle out less because the rain shadow affect is not so pronounced rather than if the PPN came up from the SW. We will have to wait and see but theres no doubt that the milder air is more pronounced in previous runs I'm afraid.