South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread

[Lynxus]

Not really a good 12z NAE on closer inspection

No, Its rubbish

Currently -5 now..

Edited February 3, 2012 by Lynxus

[Nights King]

Not really a good 12z NAE on closer inspection

That model clearly is for the bin! having said that it would only take a 25/50 mile westward shift to make it a pay day for alot of us!

I have seen stranger things happen...

-7c here also

Edited February 3, 2012 by mullender83

[Andy Bown]

-4.4c here which is lower than this stage yesterday, remarkable temps across the region!

Best place to be in our region I suspect will be holidaying in Center Parcs.

I like the sound of that, although the Center Parcs/Longleat area seems to get more snow than surrounding towns.

I give up! ian just said rain with temps of 8c!!!!!!

You what!? At no point whatsoever was 8c shown on Ian's Points West forecast ! Rain yes (freezing rain) but the highest tomorrow was 4c

in the far West of our region.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Andy Bown

[BARRY]

All this talk of snow when all we get is rain argggggggggggg

[Lynxus]

-5.3 now..

Its so odd seeing people south of here with colder temps lol.

Such an odd winter!

[Bristawl Si]

My take on things for tomorrow - sh#te!

No snow this winter, one week of cold - it's shaping up to be one of the worst winters (cold & snow wise) for BTL of the last 20 years. Summed up in tomorrow's forecast of cold rain - and to further rub it in we'll have to put up with the cockneys singing "Knees up mother brown" and "Doing the Lambeth walk" as the snow falls, whilst tucking in to pie & mash! LOL :lol:

As for Ian F, rubbish forecast tonite - he should be sacked! :lol:

Bring on an early warm spring.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Bristle boy

[Lynxus]

My take on things for tomorrow - sh#te!

No snow this winter, one week of cold - it's shaping up to be one of the worst winters (cold & snow wise) for BTL of the last 20 years. Summed up in tomorrow's forecast of cold rain - and to further rub it in we'll have to put up with the cockneys singng "Knees up mother brown" and "Doing the Lambeth walk" as the snow falls, whilst tucking in to pie & mash! LOL :lol:

As for Ian F, rubbish forecast tonite - he should be sacked! :lol:

Bring on an early warm spring.

Very odd indeed

Look at Rome... They have had snow for the first time in 26 years apparently!

Its all still to play for and there are signs of more cold on the way.. So who knows..

Im trying not to pin my hopes on it all now though..

[Lynxus]

I have a "feeling" in mah bones that we are due to see some VERY severe weather move in.. I just wont want to believe it as i fear it wont be true.

GAH! I cant handle this.

Im gonna get drunk and have a pizza me finks. This is unreal

[Nights King]

My take on things for tomorrow - sh#te!

No snow this winter, one week of cold - it's shaping up to be one of the worst winters (cold & snow wise) for BTL of the last 20 years. Summed up in tomorrow's forecast of cold rain - and to further rub it in we'll have to put up with the cockneys singing "Knees up mother brown" and "Doing the Lambeth walk" as the snow falls, whilst tucking in to pie & mash! LOL :lol:

As for Ian F, rubbish forecast tonite - he should be sacked! :lol:

Bring on an early warm spring.

Just watched ians forecast and it was well presented but utterly dire for us to be honest unless you like cold sleety rain with some transient ice about.

I remember a few last sunday saying we should just wait for the cold and the decent :db:event coming next saturday .... I think it could end up being better last monday as at least most of us got to see a few hours of snow falling if not laying!

Game over bar a freak model adjustment over night into saturday.

[Lynxus]

According to GFS,

South / SW Ireland should now have heavy rain..

All i can see on radar is a bit of drizzle..

Looks like its all a good hour or so behind currently

[Bristawl Si]

According to GFS,

South / SW Ireland should now have heavy rain..

All i can see on radar is a bit of drizzle..

Looks like its all a good hour or so behind currently

I'm hoping for a last minute change that sees the front tomorrow decide to do a Jensen Button and wizz across the UK, not bother to stall and the whole of the UK have a rainy downpour - now that would make me laugh!

[Supercell 89]

-3c here already i think -5c likely tonight if this carry's on. I'm still at a loss as to how its going to rain tomorrow i think the bulk of SW England should see some snow for a while before it turns to rain.

[Frosty_wsm]

According to GFS,

South / SW Ireland should now have heavy rain..

All i can see on radar is a bit of drizzle..

Looks like its all a good hour or so behind currently

Or it's already strugglung to move east and slowing down much sooner than expected, probably wishful thinking though.

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

Don't give up hope on this one just yet everyone. The story may have been written by the various models that the West Country in the main will miss out but it is still be acted out. As mullender83 so rightly points out, a small shift westwards on the track of this weather system or it stalling could make a big difference.

How many times over the years has the weather made a complete fool out of all those expensive super computers that are so heavily relied on to tell us the weather?

I do also wonder whether these models are slightly underestimating the lower than forecasted temperatures which once again are dropping like a stone tonight. Odds on that it will be colder than last night. There won't be as much sunshine tomorrow to warm things up a bit once the cloud rolls in. Another minor point is the barometer is still reading 1040mb and isn't moving. What bearing such a high pressure reading has on what is forecast to take place tomorrow I don't know, just seems very high to me for ppn to come falling out of the sky be it rain or snow. Going to have to fall rather quickly in the next few hours I think.

Is this really a done deal? Even some canny forecasters are not saying this is a certainty? We'll know in 24 hours time that much we do know.

Edited February 3, 2012 by bathweatherwatcher

[❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️❄️]

-5C -8dp, this time tomorrow rain and 2C

[BARRY]

well we got -4c here now and it will drop more going to be an intresting 24 hrs.

[alex131297]

-4.4c here which is lower than this stage yesterday, remarkable temps across the region!

I like the sound of that, although the Center Parcs/Longleat area seems to get more snow than surrounding towns.

You what!? At no point whatsoever was 8c shown on Ian's Points West forecast ! Rain yes (freezing rain) but the highest tomorrow was 4c

in the far West of our region.

8c on sunday!

[Paul T]

If the 18z NEA moves it 1 mile more east then I'm out of this as well, if it moves it west by more than 15 miles, then I'm happy with ny forecast still...

Also just won a poker tournament so things are looking up!

[mrsmall]

its parky here!!

[khodds]

Also, to add, haven't there been many times in the past where angwin said that snow wasn't likely, and we then got a dumping ?

[Frosty_wsm]

Makes me laugh when some in the model thread keep saying it's too late to see even a slight shift in the positioning of this front now, there could still be a massive shift at even 12 hours out!

Cant remember what year it was but the forecast was for lp to move along the channel with heavy snow from the m4 southwards (yes I did say southwards, makes a change it's usualy north!) & that was still what the forecast was saying late that night, yet the next morning it was bone dry here and lp system ploughed into northern france instead, that just shows big changes can happen at short notice.

[Bristawl Si]

Makes me laugh when some in the model thread keep saying it's too late to see even a slight shift in the positioning of this front now, there could still be a massive shift at even 12 hours out!

Cant remember what year it was but the forecast was for lp to move along the channel with heavy snow from the m4 southwards (yes I did say southwards, makes a change it's usualy north!) & that was still what the forecast was saying late that night, yet the next morning it was bone dry here and lp system ploughed into northern france instead, that just shows big changes can happen at short notice.

This is different though. We basically have a front south to north in a straight line coming in - there's no angle or slider movement, so that's one reason it's slightly easier to predict. If you go back 48 hrs the exact position of snow was up in the air but it was showing the same 'sweet spots' as tonite's forecast for Sat eve/Sun morn. It's actually been pretty rock solid this last 48hrs.

[Nights King]

Also, to add, haven't there been many times in the past where angwin said that snow wasn't likely, and we then got a dumping ?

Yes quite true I remember one cold winter he got it wrong like 3 times in a week!

I think what we need to start looking for especialy as we head into saturday morning is the position of the front compared to the models to see if it is trending west as the event occurs. Another thing is how much of a rise in temperature we get through the day and how fast it is moving. If we start climbing above 3c then I'd say it is game over but we shall have to watch with baited breath.

[Frosty_wsm]

This is different though. We basically have a front south to north in a straight line coming in - there's no angle or slider movement, so that's one reason it's slightly easier to predict. If you go back 48 hrs the exact position of snow was up in the air but it was showing the same 'sweet spots' as tonite's forecast for Sat eve/Sun morn. It's actually been pretty rock solid this last 48hrs.

Well yeah I know it's very different with this setup, I just used that as an example that big changes can occur at short range, especially with these cold/mild battles.

[BARRY]

What ever is forecast all i can say is sitting here my feet are freezing lol