The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 2

[klippieboo]

cold gone after 189+ fingers crossed its a wobble

[Brum Watcher]

Excellent NAE for the west. a 50 mile ish shift west.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=nae&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=201202021800&VAR=prty&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

[A.J]

NAE at T48....snowfest.....NMM out to T36 in agreement....GFS18z one for the bin in the short term

[weirpig]

how far does the nmm go out to aj ?

[A.J]

how far does the nmm go out to aj ?

T36 and at that time frame, it's pretty much identical to the NAE output....as these are hi-res outputs I'd go for them at this time frame IMHO

[NorthantsSnow]

one thing about the 18Z it is leaning towards more cold for next week

Yeah, for those jammy Spaniards especially. :lol:

I'm going to pray the pub run is having one of those nights. Can't get enthused by what it's showing at all.

T36 and at that time frame, it's pretty much identical to the NAE output....as these are hi-res outputs I'd go for them at this time frame IMHO

Fair enough, but they don't go out far enough yet to deduce whether or not it's a snow to rain event as per GFS 18z or snow all the way as per GFS 12z.

I think all models at least are agreed it will start off as snow, aren't they?

[A.J]

Yeah, for those jammy Spaniards especially. :lol:

I'm going to pray the pub run is having one of those nights. Can't get enthused by what it's showing at all.

Fair enough, but they don't go out far enough yet to deduce whether or not it's a snow to rain event as per GFS 18z or snow all the way as per GFS 12z.

I think all models at least are agreed it will start off as snow, aren't they?

apart from the one everyone gets hung up on, namely the GFS18z pub run, which has rain/sleet for the majority of our region!

[Bolton67]

Something needs to be done about the Mod thread and fast, some members are posting utter tosh post. Westerners v Easterners..

Easterners are going to get nowt.

Nowt for the Westerners...

Posts aimed at ''getting a bite''

It's like being back at the school playground..

All over SNOW...

Jesus wept.

[Gord]

Is how difficult the front found it to move across Wales last weekend any kind of clue as to how this one could go? I mean it's a pretty strong block...there was a period where the Midlands were thinking we might get snow last weekend before it became clear that the front would struggle against the incoming cold air and shifted the emphasis westwards.

...and this time the cold air isn't incoming...it's here!

Just a thought.

Edited February 2, 2012 by Gord

[klippieboo]

Something needs to be done about the Mod thread and fast, some members are posting utter tosh post. Westerners v Easterners..

Easterners are going to get nowt.

Nowt for the Westerners...

Posts aimed at ''getting a bite''

It's like being back at the school playground..

All over SNOW...

Jesus wept.

agreed!!

[NorthantsSnow]

I barely read the MOD thread this close to an event, so I wouldn't know. All the action is here in the regionals anyway.

Bed time for me, night gang. I'll check in before work around 6.30. Hoping for better news from the 00z, let's hope the 18z was worst case scenario and we see a swift backtrack!

Edited February 2, 2012 by NorthantsSnow

[FreezeManiac]

I will laugh if I all I see is rain... At least give me 2cm of snow

[conor123]

NAE at T48....snowfest.....NMM out to T36 in agreement....GFS18z one for the bin in the short term

Great news and the FAX charts are looking more positive to although the NAE I don't trust to much, I remember last winter for example the Boxing Day breakdown being shown as a major snow event on the NAE right up to the day!

[Gord]

Just had a read around the regionals. If I could give this snow to any of them (if we can't have it)...it would be the Irish thread. The mood of that thread is similar to how ours was 2-3 weeks ago. And they're still posting in a January thread!

I feel for them and hope they get to join in soon.

Athough we deserve it here in the West Midlands too due to our lack of any decent snowfall this winter!

[Hathers]

Snowmaggedon this weekend guys. Everything looks in place.

[BlueHedgehog074]

I think I know what happened with that pub run tonight. When the GFS 18Z came back from the pub, it started to feel sick with all of the drinks it had. But when it was sick, it threw up blue liquid all over the 'UK Precipitation Type' charts for Western areas on Saturday night. This, I reckon, ended up covering up the pink on those charts the GFS was meant to show for us on Saturday night, and into Sunday morning. ;-)

I think one thing for sure, though, is that thanks to the invention of the window, and the street lights, it will indeed be one of those cases where we may have to stare at the sky to see what goodies the weather brings.

[FreezeManiac]

I think I know what happened with that pub run tonight. When the GFS 18Z came back from the pub, it started to feel sick with all of the drinks it had. But when it was sick, it threw up blue liquid all over the 'UK Precipitation Type' charts for Western areas on Saturday night. This, I reckon, ended up covering up the pink on those charts the GFS was meant to show for us on Saturday night, and into Sunday morning. ;-)

I think one thing for sure, though, is that thanks to the invention of the window, and the street lights, it will indeed be one of those cases where we may have to stare at the sky to see what goodies the weather brings.

Yep, looking at the radar and out of the window is what I'll be doing

[cyclonic happiness]

Just had a read around the regionals. If I could give this snow to any of them (if we can't have it)...it would be the Irish thread. The mood of that thread is similar to how ours was 2-3 weeks ago. And they're still posting in a January thread!

I feel for them and hope they get to join in soon.

Athough we deserve it here in the West Midlands too due to our lack of any decent snowfall this winter!

seriously, after that snowy winter they had last year? we had a much worse time, watching ALL other regions of the UK, Europe and Ireland, getting a pasting whilst we sat back and waited and waited and waited and waited and eventually got 1" of snow.

We deserve a break as it seems like history is going to repeat itself with everywhere else getting snow but us in Europe.

I don't begrudge the Irish their snow but, they live in a very snowy part of the world compared to us, you never hear of other regional threads feeling sorry for us Midlanders?

[Nick L]

As a Midlander (well, sort of), can I just remind you all of the past. We've seen several times events like these with models predicting that the Midlands would be the "sweet spot". However, when watching the radar we saw it hit the Welsh border and stop. My advice is whatever the regular models are saying (and even the high-res ones to an extent) where the front is lying, move it 50 miles or so west.

All is not lost. Not in the slightest.

[snowinbrum]

Looks like the east midlands could see some snowfall tonight, just look at the convection by the wash

its alive!

[BlueHedgehog074]

Now this is what dreams are made off - Met Office using the Heavy Snow symbol for 6pm on Saturday.

Likely this will change, but definitely a good sign in my opinion. :') And what's more, I'm actually beginning to think those showers to the East may possibly reach here. Seem to be keeping up their energy quite well as they get further towards the region.

[fordy]

LOL people have been so caught up with saturdays event, nobody checked the radar before going to bed, thankfully ive got the day off tomorrow. Nice line of ppn coming in from the wash and pushing far inland, an unexpected snowfall for some midland members tomorrow i think.

[kmanmx]

Wow I didn't even see them showers, looked out my window, turned my super bright torch on.. nothing. Waited a few seconds, and holy smokes it just started to snow.

Very light, but good 1cm size snow flakes. Just not many of them.

This doesn't happen to Leicester..

edit:

Just checked the temps. It's like perfection, it's usually on a knife edge. But no, -3.3c, -3.9c wet bulb, -5c dew points cracking. That would explain why the snow flakes are settling so well.

Edited February 3, 2012 by kmanmx

[multi cellular thunderstorm]

Wow what a nice surprise this could be! Showers getting closer to Nottingham now.

Could be a few shocked faces in the morning looking out of the window.

It's getting really far inland just to the south of Notts, even getting close to Birmingham.

[Herefordweather]

I'm actually hoping that feature stays as far away as possible from here to avoid any cloud cover as tonight could potentially be a double figures minimum.

Currently -8.1c in Hereford.