The Midlands Regional Discussion - Part 2

[NoSnowJo]

No way?! Haha, one of my best mates when I was a kid used to live on Colbert Drive, I went to the wino arms before Christmas for a meal, that's literally round the corner from me lol. I bet you know Terry don't you? Always drives down in that big range rover

Certainly know mr Goss he's been in Thailand for the last 3 months!!!!!!

Do you think we may see some of the White stuff in Leicester or will that snow shield be back up and running again as it usually is?

[snow freak]

northamptonshire looks like its in the firing line, but i hope it doesn't turn to icy rain as some of the forecasts are suggested. I can't bear the wait now. its about time we had a decent snowfall in these parts.

[A.J]

twitchy bum time again for me being just to the north & west Brum....should see some snow but would turn back to rain if the models are to be believed.....Call me Mr Optimistic but I still believe the models are underestimated the staying power of the cold pool and am rather confident tomorrow's frontal systems will not get as far east as progged

[MKN]

anyone with the nmm model give a more detailed view of what it shows, apparently it goes out to +48 now

[PolarWarsaw]

What would we be looking at Aj 1 or 2 hours or wet snow and then rain? I dont fancy our prospects of much settling snow to be honest. Next week looks potentially interesting though.

[andy_leics22]

No way?! Haha, one of my best mates when I was a kid used to live on Colbert Drive, I went to the wino arms before Christmas for a meal, that's literally round the corner from me lol. I bet you know Terry don't you? Always drives down in that big range rover

Certainly know mr Goss he's been in Thailand for the last 3 months!!!!!!

Do you think we may see some of the White stuff in Leicester or will that snow shield be back up and running again as it usually is?

LOL he has indeed, I know his son, Rickie.

Well... As it stands we have about 95% chance of seeing some decent snowfall tomorrow, if it goes t*ts up now with only just over 24 hours left till the event.. I'll probably top myself :lol:

[MKN]

I suspect the next few frames of the nmm are going to be a make or break for many in here, should be out around 1030ish

[A.J]

What would we be looking at Aj 1 or 2 hours or wet snow and then rain? I dont fancy our prospects of much settling snow to be honest. Next week looks potentially interesting though.

Morning Radders....I'll stick my neck out and say 5-8 hours of settling snow giving perhaps 5-10 cm's, then petering out.....I really think the models have over progressed this and there might well be some pleasantly surprised midlanders when they open their curtains sunday morning.............

Looking slightly further ahead, I've got some real interest in tuesday into wednesday, with potentially a lot of snow for the western midlands & Wales

[A.J]

I suspect the next few frames of the nmm are going to be a make or break for many in here, should be out around 1030ish

don't forget, the run you are looking at is the 00z output, and yes it does clear all parts by 00z Sunday....still think it's too progressive though....now casting for tomorrow me thinks

a quick edit the O6z NAE output is less progressive with PPN distribution by 50-100 miles in my estimation, would make a lot of difference iif verified

[andy_leics22]

NAE says.. *Rasta accent* "Don't worry yourselfs mon"

[The Wolf]

Please dont tell me that we get nothing in the West Midlands!

[A.J]

BIG difference in PPN spread between NMM 00z & the latest NAE 06z outputs,......As I thought, NMM far too progressive in shunting the frontal system, and underestimates the PPN amounts

NMM 00z @ T48 (Sunday 00z hrs)

NAE 06z @T42 (Sunday 00z hrs)

[MKN]

the nae and gfs 06z both further east not good for us

[kold weather]

Yep the NAE now suggests a snow event with maybe back end rain for most of the Midlands bar maybe the far east. The models are making the frontal zone slightly stronger as we get closer to T-0 and this is leading to the front being more marginal than expected.

Tough call, I think both the NAE/NMM are being overly progressive and the front will arrive a little later and a little bit weaker than expected.

Also with regaerds to the NMM, remember thats only a ONE hour snap-shot, the above chart is total precip over a SIX hour period, so the front will look much large on the NAE than the NMM.

Either way we'll still get alot of snow BUT as I said before we really could do with the system taking longer to get here, a few hours may make a big difference.

[A.J]

the nae and gfs 06z both further east not good for us

The NAE isn't matey, and the GFS 06z, well, its the not well respected 06z run and it's cannon fodder at this range IMO

I'm quite happy TBH and nowcasting on the day is the key

Yep the NAE now suggests a snow event with maybe back end rain for most of the Midlands bar maybe the far east. The models are making the frontal zone slightly stronger as we get closer to T-0 and this is leading to the front being more marginal than expected.

Tough call, I think both the NAE/NMM are being overly progressive and the front will arrive a little later and a little bit weaker than expected.

Also with regaerds to the NMM, remember thats only a ONE hour snap-shot, the above chart is total precip over a SIX hour period, so the front will look much large on the NAE than the NMM.

Either way we'll still get alot of snow BUT as I said before we really could do with the system taking longer to get here, a few hours may make a big difference.

You learn something new every day...thanks KW

[A.J]

Just to calm pulse rates in the thread, here's a quote from the esteemed Steve Murr....hope he's right!

Just one thing to remember there is very rarely any corrections EAST on the day- nearly always small increments west..

S

[mr benn]

Couldnt believe how cold it was this morning . Car was showing -6 at 08:45 her ein Worcestershire.

Lovely sunny bright morning though.

MO and BBC showing heavy snow for 6pm Saturday night. Does that mean most of the day will be dry tomorrow ?

[kold weather]

Just to calm pulse rates in the thread, here's a quote from the esteemed Steve Murr....hope he's right!

To be honest I've seen it work both ways...we'll just have to wait and see, hopefully the 12z suite will shift it a little westwards again.

[Bolton67]

I knife edge for us in Northants on the latest charts AJ. a SMALL change westward and we'd be OK. as it stand at the moment, Snow turning sleety then drizzle.

[Costa Del Fal]

twitchy bum time again for me being just to the north & west Brum....should see some snow but would turn back to rain if the models are to be believed.....Call me Mr Optimistic but I still believe the models are underestimated the staying power of the cold pool and am rather confident tomorrow's frontal systems will not get as far east as progged

I agree.

From Last night we are looking at a slightly downgraded event but still some significant snow beforehand and a little rain or sleet at the back edge I think. I too think the models are underestimating the cold a bit considering the huge block and exceptionally low uppers its coming against - very dense cold air.

Still, areas West of Birmingham may struggle a bit but those with elevation such as the Black Country, Shropshire Hills, Malvern etc may generally do better.

[MKN]

Heres my predictions for snow remaining, to the south and east of the line everytime, currently inside the greenline i think most will be fine to see all snow, If we see a shift back west akin more to the 00z outputs or even yesterdays 12z then inside the orange line should also be fine, For areas inside the red line i think time is fast running out, but a step back west on the 12z's later and even some of the areas inside this line could see the precip remaining as snow throughout, especially if a westward movement showed up run by run, even if only by about 20miles per run which is possible. Personally i feel the orange line will be the dividing line when its all said and done. Just no more eastward shifts please!

[Paul Sherman]

I am in the bullseye zone but would dearly love a shift back west if it is any consolation, purely for the sequence of events over the next few weeks, if this shift back west happens there will be many more Snow events in the coming weeks, I do feel like Steve M that the modelling is too progressive and still hopeful the cold fights back and the pattern resets.

[Strider]

At least for Brum and surrounding areas the extra height should help a bit. But I think rain eventually is inevitable.

[Drew]

-8.2C this morning.. Was quite surprised for it to be so low. Think my elevation and being in the NE of the cotswolds stand me in good stead for a blanket.. Will it last not sure but I reckon the cold weather will reload mid week.

[conor123]

EUGH great just great no upgrades just as I expected, this is really not fair I can't believe the South East yet again is going to take everything.

Edited February 3, 2012 by conor123