South Central England Regional Discussion Thread Part 2

[iowpompeylee]

-5.5 on the isle of wight

Like I say.....I believe in the met office....a weather warning of snow for the iow......

[isleofwightsnowgal]

-5.5 on the isle of wight

Like I say.....I believe in the met office....a weather warning of snow for the iow......

Nah I just asked in th model discussion n was told we'd be lucky to c wet snow/sleet I'm gutted!!

Should really b used to it by now living here ugh!

Also although met o have a warning for us, on there map it has rain on us! Confusing!

The only thing keeping me slightly positive is th fact that we hav had decent snow th last coupled years so it is possible!

I'm praying lol

[slb97]

Hello everyone yes gtltw's posts are fab to read! Our house is for sale and we are moving inland so hopefully this is the last winter that I will have to endure the dreaded it will be marginal for coasts, rain on coasts etc. Good luck tomorrow everyone

[Stoxs]

belive you wil get nothing and be surprised if you get anything!!

All the best for tomorrow.

If this time it dosn`t happen, you might get a good shot next time later next week!!!

[iowpompeylee]

Nah I just asked in th model discussion n was told we'd be lucky to c wet snow/sleet I'm gutted!!

Should really b used to it by now living here ugh!

Also although met o have a warning for us, on there map it has rain on us! Confusing!

The only thing keeping me slightly positive is th fact that we hav had decent snow th last coupled years so it is possible!

I'm praying lol

it's always best when it's marginal.adds to the excitement.just glad we have a chance.thought it was going to be mild after the feeble December and January :-)

[Stoxs]

• just think folks if this front is a bit slower or stalls right through the middle of the country and the south east is bathed in sunshine and green fields !!!!
  
• So many full of they are in the firing line for the most snow. I would PMSL hehe
  

[Nick L]

The latest NMM is certainly an upgrade for these parts. We keep the snow for longer and the east of the IOW (even on the coast) may see an all-snow event.

[SunnySouthCoast]

-0.5C here now.

Locally at 23:00 it was :

-9C at Benson Oxfordshire

-8C at Hurn airport Dorset

-7C at Farnborough

-6C at Boscombe Down Wiltshire

-5C at Odiham Hampshire

-4C at Thorney island West Sussex

-3C at Lee-On-The-Solent Hampshire

-2C at Portland Dorset

-1C at St Catherines Point I.O.W

[Dean E]

The latest NMM is certainly an upgrade for these parts. We keep the snow for longer and the east of the IOW (even on the coast) may see an all-snow event.

Yes its looking increasing interesting from the NMM and NAE. Parts of Dorest coast such as Weymouth and Bournemouth could join in with the action if this came about

SM

[Nick L]

-0.5C here now.

Locally at 23:00 it was :

-9C at Benson Oxfordshire

-8C at Hurn airport Dorset

-7C at Farnborough

-6C at Boscombe Down Wiltshire

-5C at Odiham Hampshire

-4C at Thorney island West Sussex

-3C at Lee-On-The-Solent Hampshire

-2C at Portland Dorset

-1C at St Catherines Point I.O.W

-5.1c at the University of Reading

[Dorset_Weather]

Temp still slowly falling, -9.7 and DP -10.3 certainly a lot colder than forecast.

[isleofwightsnowgal]

The latest NMM is certainly an upgrade for these parts. We keep the snow for longer and the east of the IOW (even on the coast) may see an all-snow event.

Sorry to keep on lol-does that include the iow? 'silently prays'

[Nick L]

Sorry to keep on lol-does that include the iow? 'silently prays'

Unfortunately I don't think you'll be seeing much snow. The NMM even keeps it as an all-rain event

[Purplepixii]

The latest NMM is certainly an upgrade for these parts. We keep the snow for longer and the east of the IOW (even on the coast) may see an all-snow event.

Yippeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!

Righto, last update from me then bed! Temp -3.9c (wind chill -6.1), 73% humidity, -8.0 dewpoint oh and to top it off I have 2 frogs mating underneath the ice in the pond! One way to keep warm I guess lol!

[slb97]

They are talking about what would appear to be 'downgrades' for some areas on the weekend significant snow threat thread but not sure if that impacts on our area or not

[iowpompeylee]

Unfortunately I don't think you'll be seeing much snow. The NMM even keeps it as an all-rain event

. Met office says snow.sorry pal I'm sticking with the met office :-)

[liam300]

. Met office says snow.sorry pal I'm sticking with the met office :-)

You been saying that all day, and all day its said rain.. Recommend having a look at their website

[SunnySouthCoast]

. Met office says snow.sorry pal I'm sticking with the met office :-)

They don't say snow for the Isle of Wight though.

[isleofwightsnowgal]

I think iowpompeylee is referring to our weather warning for snow! Which is wot confused me as they hav rain on us on their maps!! Anyway I'm going kip now -depressed!! Good luck everyone else..

[iowpompeylee]

I don't look at the little symbols...it's the weather warnings what count..very accurate.if its still like that at 12 midday tommorow then I'm confident

[Dean E]

If this front was coming up from the South West, with an easterly feed, we would be in a very different position. It would also favor all parts of the Southern counties. Sadly, thats not the case, but we are in a very good position either way.

Its all going to come down to where that mild air gets pushed up and above the colder air and also how far the front moves eastwards.

Here's what I think might is likely at the moment from the Models:

Dorest/Wiltshire

Snow will be more likely the further North you are in this region, but may also be likely in Southern Dorset Including Bournemouth and Pool. But as the front pushes through, its more likely to turn to sleet and then rain as it pushes further eastwards. This is the area where the will be a margin for error, somewhere in this region will be where the rain will turn to snow. As for amount 1 to 5cm on lower ground seems possible with slightly higher amounts on ground above 100m.

But, if the rain band stalls in this area as some models are showing, you could do very well out of this event.

Hampshire/Berkshire/Oxfordshire/Surrey/West Sussex

This is most likely to be an all snow event. Margin for error will be greatly reduced due to the entrenched cold air. Coastal areas may also be included in the snowfall, but I think the Extreme coast will likely be wet snow or sleet, perhaps rain later. Amounts will be highest in this area as this is where most of the forecast ppn will be. So expect 5 to 10cm widely, with some areas getting as much as 20cm. The Downs could do well too.

Isle Of Wight

Now I've put the Isle of Wight on its own because it does stand a reasonable chance of sharing the snowfall. My reason for this is that while the wind might not be favorable, the ground temperatures and elevation may play a key part in whether you get snow or rain. Winds on the Island will be S to SE at around 20mph, so this is the only down side here. Temperature will be around 0 to 1c during the evening which is favorable. Snow amounts will be around the same as the main land at 5 to 10cm.

This is my current outlook on things as they stand. For this, I used the NAE, NMM and ECM models. No chance I would use the GFS at the moment as its gone off on one again!

I hope this is easier to understand and shall be grateful for you feedback

SM

Edited February 4, 2012 by SnowMania

[Mark Neal.]

If this front was coming up from the South West, with an easterly feed, we would be in a very different position. It would also favor all parts of the Southern counties. Sadly, thats not the case, but we are in a very good position either way.

Its all going to come down to where that mild air gets pushed up and above the colder air and also how far the front moves eastwards.

Here's what I think might is likely at the moment from the Models:

Dorest/Wiltshire

Snow will be more likely the further North you are in this region, but may also be likely in Southern Dorset Including Bournemouth and Pool. But as the front pushes through, its more likely to turn to sleet and then rain as it pushes further eastwards. This is the area where the will be a margin for error, somewhere in this region will be where the rain will turn to snow. As for amount 1 to 5cm on lower ground seems possible with slightly higher amounts on ground above 100m.

But, if the rain band stalls in this area as some models are showing, you could do very well out of this event.

Hampshire/Berkshire/Surrey/West Sussex

This is most likely to be an all snow event. Margin for error will be greatly reduced due to the entrenched cold air. Coastal areas may also be included in the snowfall, but I think the Extreme coast will likely be wet snow or sleet, perhaps rain later. Amounts will be highest in this area as this is where most of the forecast ppn will be. So expect 5 to 10cm widely, with some areas getting as much as 20cm. The Downs could do well too.

Isle Of Wight

Now I've put the Isle of Wight on its own because it does stand a reasonable chance of sharing the snowfall. My reason for this is that while the wind might not be favorable, the ground temperatures and elevation may play a key part in whether you get snow or rain. Winds on the Island will be S to SE at around 20mph, so this is the only down side here. Temperature will be around 0 to 1c during the evening which is favorable. Snow amounts will be around the same as the main land at 5 to 10cm.

This is my current outlook on things as they stand. For this, I used the NAE, NMM and ECM models. No chance I would use the GFS at the moment as its gone off on one again!

I hope this is easier to understand and shall be grateful for you feedback

SM

Don't forget Oxfordshire is represented in here by 2/3 of us.

Anyway Temperatures down to -7.0c and Dewpoint is -10.5c

Goodnight All, Busy Day ahead!! Zzz

[saintkip]

Don't forget Oxfordshire is represented in here by 2/3 of us.

Anyway Temperatures down to -7.0c and Dewpoint is -10.5c

Goodnight All, Busy Day ahead!! Zzz

no Marky Oxford is deffo not represented by 2/3 in here, maybe 1/12

[Mark Neal.]

no Marky Oxford is deffo not represented by 2/3 in here, maybe 1/12

When i said 2/3 i was saying theres 2 or 3 members from Oxfordshire who use this thread, sorry about that!

Regards,Mark

[Dean E]

Don't forget Oxfordshire is represented in here by 2/3 of us.

Anyway Temperatures down to -7.0c and Dewpoint is -10.5c

Goodnight All, Busy Day ahead!! Zzz

I'll update it, you fall in the section, Hampshire/Berkshire/Surrey/West Sussex

SM