South Central England Regional Discussion Thread Part 2

[flyer]

Just in case anyone has forgotten what the stuff looks like here is a cam that I stole from the southeast thread.

http://www.feratel.c...ium/brugge.html

Coast's post 351 is also worth a look.

Edit. Make sure you select the correct camera.

Edited February 3, 2012 by flyer

[flyer]

OK this is the best I can do at present, piers corbyn says to double output from "standard" forecasts.

So if it seems likely that you are anticipating a 1mm layer you can look forward to 2mm.

[MKN]

http://blogs.channel4.com/liam-dutton-on-weather/snow/494 Interesting read

[SLEETY]

Afternoon!

I wouldn't pay much attention to the 6z again, as its this one is a mostly computer generated model with no use of weather balloons ect. Wait for the 12z for the verification!

I am now starting to believe that this front is really going to struggle agains the block and be brave enough to say it might not even reach parts of the South East... I say this because as the Warm front, closely followed by the cold front, moves across the South West and Wales; it develops a small area of low pressure. Now the latest MetO fax does show this, but if you look at the low pressure system, it has no other way to go but south due to the huge block over the east and a small area of high pressure to the SW.

I think this is looking the most likely senario at the moment and is very promising for places further west such as Dorest and IOW.

As many have said, this is a very complex situation that is a nightmare to forecast. But I've put my neck out there and made my forecast!

Lets see if my years of experience and knowledge pays off!

SM

I agree.

It still wouldn't surprise if the main band of snow grinds to a halt further West than is currently being shown and it is this area that will get a pasting and not further East.

I remember some years ago of a similar situation and and it ended up with Dorset and Hampshire getting heavy snow with drifting whilst places further East like west Sussex which were supposed to get the brunt of the snow received nothing :lol:

Edited February 3, 2012 by SLEETY

[IanM]

OK this is the best I can do at present, piers corbyn says to double output from "standard" forecasts.

So if it seems likely that you are anticipating a 1mm layer you can look forward to 2mm.

Ah, but that was for the 1-3rd Feb and mainly in the West, there must have been another sausage in the way - actually to be fair doubling zero is still zero, so he is spot on.

[flyer]

Ah, but that was for the 1-3rd Feb and mainly in the West, there must have been another sausage in the way - actually to be fair doubling zero is still zero, so he is spot on.

Ah another closet piers fan. B)

He had a caveat joker card which I think he has played on the twit network to include 4th. But I am not sure of the year.

[cobbettp]

Just got my sledge out going to great tomorow YAY

[katemart]

Early Sunday morning (8am boat), Wightlink permitting, I was planning to head to Stamford bridge via Redhill (to meet a friend and drop the car off) to watch Chelsea v. Man U.

So I wonder what the odds are of: a) Negotiating the A3, M25, A25 and B) the match actually going ahead if I do make it.

Answers on a postcard please, gutted if I can't make it as I haven't had a beer since New Year and was saving myself for a good drink on Sunday. Should I just chuck in the towel and get lashed tonight as there is no hope of getting up there Sunday?!

Moth, totally on your wavelength! Haven't been out properly since I had surgery in November and was really looking forward to watching the Saints-Brum match in the pub with some mates whilst the snow was falling down silently outside, making for a fun walk home! Now it looks like the match will be cancelled due to bad weather in the midlands and getting a soaking from the TORRENTIAL RAIN forecast for Soton.

[Alan Partridge voice *ON*]: This country!

[divadee]

I'm Hoping the NAE 12z showing a slight shift west may give me a tiny grasp of hope! I won't be holding my breath but it's the only thing I have left to cling to!

[flyer]

I'm Hoping the NAE 12z showing a slight shift west may give me a tiny grasp of hope! I won't be holding my breath but it's the only thing I have left to cling to!

Try this.

[flyer]

I'm Hoping the NAE 12z showing a slight shift west may give me a tiny grasp of hope! I won't be holding my breath but it's the only thing I have left to cling to!

Try this

[flyer]

OK then to keep it on topic this ? ps where is everyone ?

[Beasterly]

OK then to keep it on topic this ? ps where is everyone ?

This thread is always deserted. Even during the Jan 2010 event.

[flyer]

This thread is always deserted. Even during the Jan 2010 event.

No joke feb. The southeast is heaviing.

[heffsta_reading]

This thread is always deserted. Even during the Jan 2010 event.

Im lurking here and the SE thread. My area (Reading) looks like it will be on the edge of the snow. Hopefully we get some I want to go for a nice long run in the snow like I did in Jan 2010

[Nick L]

Good evening everyone

I think my initial prediction of those east of the IOW will see a mainly snow event is going to be near the mark. The NMM charts show it nicely, here is a snippet:

http://nwstatic.co.u...87c3fb9ff14cfc;

http://nwstatic.co.u...87c3fb9ff14cfc;

The places to be IMO are Berkshire and Oxfordshire.

Edited February 3, 2012 by Nick L

[isleofwightsnowgal]

I can't understand y met office give us a warning yet on all the charts it's shows rain can someone plz say wot our chances are?

Cheers n fingers crossed

[coxxy22]

Well I'm gonna cross me fingers and toes and do a lot of praying !!!! lol hopefully it will shift a little west and I'll se a bit of the white stuff !! Half hr of decent falling snow will make me happy lol looking at the 12z though it doesn't seem like its been pulled back west !! Looks a lot like the 6z in that it shows it more to the east ( well that's what it looks like to me ) lol

Edited February 3, 2012 by coxxy22

[Nick L]

I won't actually be here for the event! Off to the West Brom match tomorrow morning, was going to come home straight afterwards but not risking it now with the snow.

[Slingfox]

I am also slightly puzzled by the GFS output on the latest run predicting that we'll just simply get icy rain, yet the likes of the Met Office give us Heavy Snow symbols, not sure if I trust the GFS at this stage, could do with things being slightly more to the West so the likes of Hampshire gets a bit of snow.

[Purplepixii]

OK then to keep it on topic this ? ps where is everyone ?

lol I love that picture! It'll probably be the closest I get to snow this weekend - the Hampshire shield is up methinks

[iowpompeylee]

I trust in the met office.

[coxxy22]

I trust in the met office.

Going by my met office app it's saying that us in Portsmouth will only see sleet !!!

[divadee]

-2 with -7 dp here at the moment. The mild frost on the lawn hasn't thawed all day. Another freezing night to come I think.

Keeping everything crossed on fl models at the moment. If no snow then roll on summer and a heat wave! Lol.

[snowysouth]

Yup pushed east as always. I do dislike the battle grounds. We don't tend to do well out of them. We need an Easterly with channel low really. Like last year