South Central England Regional Discussion Thread Part 2

[PompeyFC]

yep check out the NAE model - conditions really do not look favourable for us at all now on the south coast. If the front stalls we may have a better chance or arrives slower

[thegreat316]

Yup latest 6z Nae looks like a deffo snow to rain event, We really gotta hope that this front doesent make it across the country as easy as the NAE predicts.

0Z shifted eastwards. 06Z also shifted eastwards. We need to see the trend reverse soon, times running out.

6Z NAE

[SLEETY]

updated nae not looking good I am afraid.Looks like rain for all,any snow looks like being brief.

How ever still time for it too change.Maybe the rmodel is being too progressive in moving the front through.

Edited February 3, 2012 by SLEETY

[flyer]

Looking at it this morning. It's got to be anything east of Southampton that is going to get snow. Us poor souls west of Southampton it's gonna be rain or nothing lol.

Hoping for something next week! My new sledge is ready and waiting for his first outing!

Just curious Diva, how does one tell the gender of a sledge ?

Edited February 3, 2012 by flyer

[Frank Trough]

yep check out the NAE model - conditions really do not look favourable for us at all now on the south coast. If the front stalls we may have a better chance or arrives slower

yes, same old issues along the south coast. I'm praying it makes slower progress and gives us a chance. My gut feeling says we will at least see a bit of snow but that it will probably turn quite rapidly to rain. It will be interesting to watch the radars tomorrow to see a). how much precip there is and where it is heaviest and b. how quickly does it make progress east?

However, the thing that will really make this a non-event is the fact i have just cancelled my ferry booking to the IOW this weekend as a precaution. I apologise to the whole south coast for this - if i'd just gone it would have been a stalled front and snow for all throughout but now i'll just be sitting at home in bournemouth listening to the rain hammer against the window while explaining to my parents exactly why i cancelled all the plans.

Edited February 3, 2012 by A horse called man

[divadee]

He just feels like a boy! And he's blue so I'm stereotypical going for a he!! Lol. It's like all cars and boats are girls! Sledges are boys lol

[snowysouth]

Yup latest 6z Nae looks like a deffo snow to rain event, We really gotta hope that this front doesent make it across the country as easy as the NAE predicts.

0Z shifted eastwards. 06Z also shifted eastwards. We need to see the trend reverse soon, times running out.

6Z NAE

A sickening NAE for sure. Didn't yesterday's 12z have the front further West? There is still time I guess, but I am not getting my hopes up yet!

[flyer]

Re Diva

O.K That's cleared that up then.

Edited February 3, 2012 by flyer

[divadee]

However, the thing that will really make this a non-event is the fact i have just cancelled my ferry booking to the IOW this weekend as a precaution. I apologise to the whole south coast for this - if i'd just gone it would have been a stalled front and snow for all throughout but now i'll just be sitting at home in bournemouth listening to the rain hammer against the window while explaining to my parents exactly why i cancelled all the plans.

So we will all blame you when Bournemouth gets no snow! How can you be so selfish to your fellow Bournemouth posters!! ;-)

Rebook to the iow and then we may have a snow fest

[thegreat316]

A sickening NAE for sure. Didn't yesterday's 12z have the front further West? There is still time I guess, but I am not getting my hopes up yet!

Yup 12z Shifted west last 2 days.

however, if it shifts east as well then it really will dishearten me.

[kold weather]

You guys will always struggle whenver you get a flow coming in from the Channel as unless you have very cold conditions already in place the wind will moderate temperatures upwards.

The best events tend to be when you have winds ahead of any front coming from the north or east I tend to find, for example last December I was down in Chichester and we got 8 inches from that low that formed over the E.Channel and winds were easterly meaning the temps didn't moderate upwards...end result was a decent snow event.

[Frank Trough]

So we will all blame you when Bournemouth gets no snow! How can you be so selfish to your fellow Bournemouth posters!! ;-)

Rebook to the iow and then we may have a snow fest

i am willing to take the blame. However, i can't re-book as you have to pay for further amendments and seeing as the crossing cost my annual disposable income in the first place i'm loathed to!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Got down to -9.8c last night, lovely cold morning.

[Frank Trough]

You guys will always struggle whenver you get a flow coming in from the Channel as unless you have very cold conditions already in place the wind will moderate temperatures upwards.

The best events tend to be when you have winds ahead of any front coming from the north or east I tend to find, for example last December I was down in Chichester and we got 8 inches from that low that formed over the E.Channel and winds were easterly meaning the temps didn't moderate upwards...end result was a decent snow event.

that was a superb event - never any worries about 850's or dew points there. Most fun i can remember radar watching! I can definitely feel this one slipping away....here's just hoping that the reality works out differently. After all, the front hasn't looked at any model output, has it?

[divadee]

i am willing to take the blame. However, i can't re-book as you have to pay for further amendments and seeing as the crossing cost my annual disposable income in the first place i'm loathed to!

Lol. Did you know the iow ferry is the most expensive crossing per Mile in the world!! To be honest if it was cheaper we would go more often for day trips etc... But refuse to pay extortionate prices for that trip.

[Frank Trough]

Lol. Did you know the iow ferry is the most expensive crossing per Mile in the world!! To be honest if it was cheaper we would go more often for day trips etc... But refuse to pay extortionate prices for that trip.

yes, the cost is a constant niggle to us "caulkheads" (even when we've left!). the last time i went they demanded i gave them a bag of gold at the ticket office.

To be honest, if it is just going to rain tomorrow and the UKMO is on to something further down the line then i'd rather just get on with spring now. Weeks of hard frosts and then "wrong side of marginal" snow events don't really cut it for me after mid february to be honest.

[SLEETY]

going down to the wire I think.Latest forecast had the front stalling on sunday with snow as far west as portsmouth

[lynnsim]

Looks like I was right not to buy the (suddenly more expensive!) snow shovels in Sainsbury's this morning then! I'm still going to hold onto a little hope that being in NE Hants will give me a better chance. But looking at the NAE just posted, it does look like the snow will eventually turn to rain. Might need to do a bit of night-time window watching to see the snow!

[gottolovethisweather]

Right then, what is in the offing? I attach the GFS 0z ensembles charts which will hopefully give us some guidance.

Firstly, the 850s are the upper atmosphere temperatures and I am reproducing them for both Berkshire and Hampshire with a comparison against Cambridgeshire, i.e. much further East.

Note the close correlation between the control line (blue) and the mean line (red) throughout as they are predicted to remain well below average throughout. Pay close attention to the Camridgeshire 850s in the longer-term as these are shown to be lower still, hinting at colder air winning over anything mild.

The key point to note is the initial rise up to 5th February as this shows the warmer upper atmosphere air attempting to come in. After this, it shows a generally agreed upon period which, even now proves the uncertainty to forecast Saturday/Sunday's CRUCIAL event. THIS IS NOT A DONE DEAL.

After the CRUCIAL 5th February snow event, the trend clearly indicates the likelihood of an atlantic return being very minimal indeed. In fact, it is more likely that once the weekend's event has passed, the EASTERLY regime will return but possibly not as severe as before.

Now in spite of what the above shows, it is the effects at ground level which are most important. So, let us look at the 2m temperatures (borderline Air temperatures) as these are VITAL in relation to this snowfall event. Again, I am using both Berkshire and Hampshire with a comparison against Cambridgeshire. Once again, please pay attention to the control line (blue) and the mean line (red) as this will indicate a general trend.

The longer-term trend for Hampshire is slightly warmer than that of Berkshire and is to be expected but more appropriately Cambridgeshire is forecast to remain bitter throughout. In spite of this slightly warmer phase, there will be many Air Frosts to come in the clearer spells. Furthermore, I cannot see any temperatures near normal for the forseeable and there will be plenty of chances of SNOW to come.

As for my personal opinion on the weekend, all I would advise is to expect some snow for a whole lot of us, however, there will be winners and losers. That is a bit of a vague answer I know but the MetO themselves don't know even now and Saturday will reveal more of the possibilities. For the best case scenario, I would hope for a STALLING FRONT and we need the SNOW to readily settle and slowly build up which will in turn modify the air above. The usual caveats apply, the further inland and those at elevation being better placed. I don't buy the all rain scenario FWIW.

Kind Regards

gottolovethisweather

Edited February 3, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Frank Trough]

going down to the wire I think.Latest forecast had the front stalling on sunday with snow as far west as portsmouth

that's better news.

if you were to take snow out of the equation by imagining this set up but in the spring or something then just looking at it you would think the front will make painfully slow progress given the pressure and gradually fizzle out?

Does anybody remember an event back in about 2003/4 where a front pushed in from the west against cold air (not this cold i don't think) but stalled and never got across the country? i lived in Oxford at the time and i remember the BBC forecast in the evening showed the front passing through and reaching Lincolnshire by the early hours. However, the front never really got past oxford and stayed there and fizzled out.

[Becoming More Irritating]

i have had a word up top with the big boys and i can confirm we wont know more until tonight! however in my ex-professional opinion i feel this will be the greatest snow fall most of us have witnessed! Michael Fish

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

i have had a word up top with the big boys and i can confirm we wont know more until tonight! however in my ex-professional opinion i feel this will be the greatest snow fall most of us have witnessed! Michael Fish

Can you send me a signed photograph please.

[Becoming More Irritating]

ha ha, there i was thinking my 'autograph' days were over! i will try but i am doing a lot of forecasts on the local radio so i am a bit short on time1

[steve1971]

Snow cast for tomorow gone from 45% to 13% for southampton so im not exspecting much in the way of snow some at first before turning to sleet and rain looks likely.those loacal forcast are good used them often and havent let me down yet.theres always a first time to be wrong.there is a chance of the cold coming back next week so keep a eye on that.

[Becoming More Irritating]

Hi guys i think there has been a mistake, i am not Michael Fish the famous weatherman, but i am CALLED Michael Fish i feel it is my right to use my name! i hope the admin can understand this request, thankyou.

Michael Fish