Significant Snow Risk This Weekend - General Discussion

[TEITS]

Better agreement this morning with the NAE being fairly representative although GFS is slightly further E.

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/02/03/basis00/ukuk/pslv/12020500_0300.gif

At the moment I would say eastern parts of the E Midlands look favourite to see the heaviest snowfall due to being within the zone of being all snow plus the front will be more active here than by the time it reaches the extreme SE.

The fax charts have this stalling from a line from the Wash to London which is the area I highlighted yesterday morning although still time for this to be slightly further E or W but not by much.

http://nwstatic.co.uk/fax/PPVL89.png

Snowfall amounts is very tricky to predict because its virtually impossible to predict how much snowfall will be falling whilst the front remains stationary into Monday.

[stewfox]

BBC South Today still saying a lot of uncertainty but a risk of some sleet and snow saturday night, temps 5c by monday.

-7.5c here at present and cloudy

[SMU]

You have got to say that 20cms will be a favoured low lying depth from the worst area & universal 5-10 in the 'all snow band..

S

[leicsnow]

Where do you think I stand in Leicestershire (I live on the west side of Leicester city btw) snow wise?

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

NMM coming into range now and has snow for extreme west england

NMM has the snow starting at 07.00 tomorrow.

And i still coming down 5 hours later at noon. but for some it shows as freezing rain

[TEITS]

You have got to say that 20cms will be a favoured low lying depth from the worst area & universal 5-10 in the 'all snow band..

S

Yes looking at the chart below.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs72sum.gif

Also suggests I was wrong in my comment with regards to the extreme SE.

[SMU]

Yes looking at the chart below.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rmgfs72sum.gif

Also suggests I was wrong in my comment with regards to the extreme SE.

dont forget max ratios because of dewpoints could be a 1:12 or even 1:15

S

[MKN]

In order the Ecm, Nae, Gfs and the last is the Gem.

Roughly speaking to the east of birmingham would currently put you in with a good chance of the front remaining as snow, although i will hold judgement on exactly what i think will be best placed until after the 12z outputs this afternoon, by then the NMM and NAE model will be able to give us all a much clearer idea of what when and where snow or rain will be falling

[AmershamMike]

Anyone have a view on whether South Bucks will be in line for a snow event? Met Office seem to think it will only be light snow for a couple of hours.......

[MR EXTREMES]

BBC South Today still saying a lot of uncertainty but a risk of some sleet and snow saturday night, temps 5c by monday.

-7.5c here at present and cloudy

i think your find it was 4c and se flow sunday monday tuesday!.

Im still unsure weather we will get anything wintry i think were have to wait and see what falls in southampton before it gets to us but anything north and east of us is very likely to be snow and stay snow.

Also north and east of portsmouth looking good.

[jy]

Stewfox i wouldnt trust South Today forecasts ,as a gardener i have to take a passing interest in the weather and they are statisically very poor in my opinion,they may be correct this time but they spend too much time trying to be Z list celebs at the expense of the day job.

[MKN]

Yes looking at the chart below.

http://www.wetterzen.../Rmgfs72sum.gif

Also suggests I was wrong in my comment with regards to the extreme SE.

What amount of time does that cover? just wondering if it takes into account snowfall that could fall tonight in eastern areas?

[kold weather]

Good models for the east this morning, for the west they are still very mixed I think it'd be fair to say. Cold air holding on across the east will make it quite likely that the band will stay totally as snow but it is a balancing act because obvioxusly the further east it gets the more it'll weaken. The good news is the models are a touch more progressive with the front which gives the SE more time under the active front before it decays.

Good agreement still with what will happen, BUT there probably is still time for a few adjustments even now.

[Shezale coventry]

Would coventry be a good spot for the snow staying as snow and a good dumping??

[TEITS]

What amount of time does that cover? just wondering if it takes into account snowfall that could fall tonight in eastern areas?

The GFS doesn't really predict much for the E/SE tonight so those snowfall totals are via the front. Also just to follow on from Steve M comment about dewpoints and generally across E Anglia/SE these will not drop below -2/3C.

[Bolton67]

Sweet spot for me would be Cambs and Beds. fingers crossed 30 miles west we might be still in the all snow event.

[ANYWEATHER]

Would coventry be a good spot for the snow staying as snow and a good dumping??

Youre in the firing Line mate.....Ian.

[TEITS]

Sweet spot for me would be Cambs and Beds. fingers crossed 30 miles west we might be still in the all snow event.

Yes still looking very good in my opinion for Northants. Even if the models are identical tomorrow morning you still have to take into account the front might be slightly further W than predicted i.e 50miles.

When looking at the radar its going to be interesting watching for signs of the front slowing and then stalling.

[kold weather]

Sweet spot for me would be Cambs and Beds. fingers crossed 30 miles west we might be still in the all snow event.

Yeah that sounds reasonable to me, should be far enough east to keep snow the whole way through but also far enough west to get the front still at its strongest.

Anyway we seem to have arrived at a decent agreement now on the models with the west probably seeing a snow-rain event, central/eastern areas that sees the snow arrive overnight will see totally snow. Still a little uncertainty over the SE with regards to where it will stall. Models suggests just oiffshiore but it'd only take 50 mile shift west to breing Kent and EA into play with regards to the stalled solution, though by that time the system will be weakening fast anyway...

[Bolton67]

Yes still looking very good in my opinion for Northants. Even if the models are identical tomorrow morning you still have to take into account the front might be slightly further W than predicted i.e 50miles.

When looking at the radar its going to be interesting watching for signs of the front slowing and then stalling.

I believe you saw snow flakes last night i Watched them fizzle out as they left P/boro and headed down the road to us.

[Zakos]

My area look

[chicken soup]

Can i expect anything in blackburn , im clinging on to the fact that were in the east of lancashire, but im probably straw clutching.

[TEITS]

I believe you saw snow flakes last night i Watched them fizzle out as they left P/boro and headed down the road to us.

Yes indeed mate although it was slightly frustrating because the heavier showers were just 10miles N of me.

[Zakos]

My area looking the prime area for snow.models have handled this battleground scenario well tbh, my area has been forecast to be the prime position for days now.gfs still wants to push the cold away too quickly. Something like the ECM/NAE is what i would expect for the weekend. I'll still of course be watching the radar, as its almost imossible to predict where the most intense and heavy snowfall is going to be. Its safe to say saturday night is going to be a late one for me.

[leicsnow]

Youre in the firing Line mate.....Ian.

Am I in the firing line too?