South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2

[Lynxus]

So that doesn't say rain all the way! Anywhere!

Ignore the rain rain rain posts.

Yes it will rain initially, Possibly sleet ( Its currently raining here )

Im not believing these models currently but yeah i still think some are in for a large amount of snow even western areas...

[warmintim]

last twitter from ian. 9 mins ago

Ian Fergusson @fergieweather

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Latest UKMO analysis has same general story albeit some snow also further to E. W bounds uncertain, eg E Wales. 1-5cm generally, Glos/Wilts

fromey

To clarify - my take is he is saying that there will also be some snow further east, not that it will only snow further east. Its all about interpretation of the tweet, which to be honest is leading people astray...

[alex12]

Ignore the rain rain rain posts.

Yes it will rain initially, Possibly sleet ( Its currently raining here )

Im not believing these models currently but yeah i still think some are in for a large amount of snow even western areas...

whats your temp and dewpoint?

[Nights King]

Ignore the rain rain rain posts.

Yes it will rain initially, Possibly sleet ( Its currently raining here )

Im not believing these models currently but yeah i still think some are in for a large amount of snow even western areas...

We shall have to nowcast it around 9pm - 12 to get an idea of what our chances are I think. If it is still rain by mid night then I'll start to get a little concerned. It may be further east but ppn totals def look alot higher where as before it was getting abit light and patchy bristol/somerset eastwards.

meto weather app just updated to give heavy snow from midnight.

Edited February 9, 2012 by mullender83

[bellanite]

afternoon all,

i found this website for dew point calculation, if anybody out there with dew point on there weather stations try it out to see how accurate it is for me.

http://www.dpcalc.org/

you will have to switch it to Celsius, witch is on the bottom on the chart

cheers

fromey.

Hi ya

It works ok conditions here at the mo is 3.1deg, RH is 69 and DP is -1.6

put it in and came up with a DP of -2 close enough

Think with the current situation we just have to wait and see. The models are there just as a guide anything can happen. anyway fingers crossed we all see something. and if not we've got next week to look forward too. Hopefully

Good luck guys

[fromey]

i found this dew point calculator , has anybody got a dew point on there weather station to see if its accurate.

http://www.dpcalc.org/.

many thanks

fromey

[Will Farkin]

This is very very strange. Although someone I think it was Eye in the sky said last night the the charts did not look right as the radar was showing things alldifferently as early as 10 oclock last night. Sure this is all just sent to try us. Well my patience this winter has finally ran out.

Looks good for us folk in Warminster!! :rofl:

[fromey]

Hi ya

It works ok conditions here at the mo is 3.1deg, RH is 69 and DP is -1.6

put it in and came up with a DP of -2 close enough

Think with the current situation we just have to wait and see. The models are there just as a guide anything can happen. anyway fingers crossed we all see something. and if not we've got next week to look forward too. Hopefully

Good luck guys

thanks for that,

here its 2.8c 47%hum = -7 dew point !! not bad

fromey

i think its slightly out because it doesnt do 0.1-.0.2 etc etc

Edited February 9, 2012 by fromey

[lfcdude]

Dad just txt me snow flurry in calne, so think the answere is there it will be snow here :-D

[dancing daisy]

Can someone summarise for me please? I cannot make sense of all the doom, gloom and moaning posts from the snowy posts.

I just need a simple answer to one question. Do I need to take everything home with me from work tonight ready for an early half term or will I be in work tomorrow?

Thanks

[jethro]

BETA forecast update says snow here from 6pm today through to 9am tomorrow, no mention of rain - intensity varies between heavy and light, heaviest expected at midnight.

[Lynxus]

whats your temp and dewpoint?

Temp- +2.5c

DP- -1.5c

[weathe20]

3.9, temp dropping.

Must admit the current GFS brings us snow from 15:00 tomorrow to 18:00, that is way off!!

[offerman]

Very Dark clouds here in Frome now.

Calne not far from here nor is Gloucester , Clane snowing, Gloucester raining. Uk`s weather certainly keeps us all guessing inc forecasters :-)

Anyone want to see whats happening check out this link,Brilliant-

http://www.raintoday.co.uk/

Looks to me like the whole lot is intensifying as it moves South.

[weathe20]

Rain close by to my area on the radar now. (just reporting what is showing)

[Iceberg]

get alot to watch over the next 6 hrs or so. snow moving into northern cotswolds, precip heavier than nae and gfs predicting.

current temp for me is 2.8 after rising to 4c so dropping quite quick, with a dp of -2c.

[lostobsessed]

I'm Really not so sure about tonight.

temp currently 4.0c Humidity 73% DP -0.5

we cant even really get freezing rain from this as the ground isnt any longer below freezing! i must admit, i didnt expect temps to rise so much today, especially considering the cloud cover. . . odd . . . any ways, unless temps take a dramatic tumble, i cant see anything materializing except rain. . . . shame really as we dont have much time left for snow in this area . . though March can produce some quick cold blast and snow, it only lasts a day or so!

Let the Nowcasting Commence!

[weathe20]

I'm Really not so sure about tonight.

temp currently 4.0c Humidity 73% DP -0.5

we cant even really get freezing rain from this as the ground isnt any longer below freezing! i must admit, i didnt expect temps to rise so much today, especially considering the cloud cover. . . odd . . . any ways, unless temps take a dramatic tumble, i cant see anything materializing except rain. . . . shame really as we dont have much time left for snow in this area . . though March can produce some quick cold blast and snow, it only lasts a day or so!

Let the Nowcasting Commence!

Got to admit I was very supprised to see 4.1 on my weather station when I got home at 2.30pm, after yesterdays coldest day of the winter (IMBY) of 1.1.

[Wiltshireweatherwatcher]

Ian F is doing a spot of nowcasting on this one:

All reports of precipitation type into Glos from now into evening gratefully appreciated....!

[Wynn D Woo]

Well unsurprisingly its raining, as usual model hype and promises of snow but the reality is rain yet again!

[kumquat]

Just shows the uncertainty. Heavier ppn could help evaporative cooling and we might get something decent out of this. Could turn out to be a surprise event for some.

[lfcdude]

i like the new meto forcast for me light snow, heavy snow, heavy snow, light snow :-P :-D

[alijoe]

I can't bring myself to go into the other regional discussions lol, I am not a jelious type of person EVER, but I am with the snow lol. Anyway, fingers crossed, if nothing else, will make the next few hours interesting. Good luck everyone.

[lostobsessed]

The odd spot of rain started here! seems to be pushing south a lot faster than forecast!

[AWD]

Lol! Some very bizarre post on here this afternoon!

The NAE is a downgrade for western parts of our region, but only in terms of how long it takes for the rain to turn to snow! It was always progged to be a rain to snow event, but unfortunetly the 12z NAE shows more rain before it turns to snow across Bristol and surrounding areas, thus making it harder for the snow that does fall to settle! In the early hours of Friday Morning it will be snowing in most places around the West Country! However, due to the extent of the rain before it turns to snow, I now expect any accumilations to be rather small in these areas, if indeed any at all!

For Wiltshire especially, an upgrade! The intensity of the PPN as increased and more of it snow here, so could be quite interesting over that way!

This is still very knife edge and uncertain still, even Ian F has mentioned the uncertainty of the westward extent of snow, so this could still change for the worse or for the better!

The NW radar shows clearly the split in rain and snow over the north East Midlands!! Watch the track of the PPN to see whether it is snow orvrain you will get!

All in all, a very interesting weather event to watch over! Not so much for the amount of snow because there looks not to be a lot, Wiktshire aside, but for the unexpected potential and model uncertainty, not knowing what you will get one minute to the next!

Oh, and Ian F has not tweeted nothing about rain all over! He has said it will be rain, turning to snow, with potentially up to 5cm across parts of Gloucs. And Wiltshire!

A downgrade yes, but not a write off! Enjoy the unexpected all, and remember, it's only the weather, stay positive and learn for next time!