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South West Of England Regional Discussion Thread - Part 2

kold weather

By kold weather
in Regional

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Frosty_wsm Rising Star

Frosty_wsm

Posted
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms in the summer, frost fog & snow in winter.
  • Location: Weston-Super-Mare, North Somerset
Posted

Thought id take a peek in here to see what was happening, wish I hadn't now lol

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alex131297 Newbie

alex131297

Posted
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
Posted

not sure i a buy any downgrade talk...i'd need to see some evidence of it (even from ian).

the nae 06z wasn't a downgrade and the 12z won't be out for another 1.5hrs even for the meto forecasters.

Re chris question above, its all about dp's really in this situation as a small plume of air sits over the sw from France, France has dp's down to -5 to -9 atm and this is keeping dps down to -1 for most of the region from now onwards. The colder dps are not reaching into cornwall and west devon hence the rain there.

Add in some evaporative cooling, a freezing atmosphere from 500, 850 and 925 to the surface and 850-1000 thicknesses below 130 you get all the ingredients for snow.

personally i can't see anything but snow for eastern areas of our region.

DP -3c here :)

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Take a look at ians tweet :(

Dont take Ians twitter as gospel.

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alex131297 Newbie

alex131297

Posted
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
Posted

meto have me light snow.

, heavy snow, light snow, light snow... So clearly there is no real downgrade folks.

light snow, heavy snow,light snow, heavy snow and then black cloud :D

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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

forgot to add that without height a temp of 2c will equal snow.

Ian seems to be concerned about the Wet Bulb temps between Cardiff and Bristol any thoughts on that ?

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

not sure i a buy any downgrade talk...i'd need to see some evidence of it (even from ian).

the nae 06z wasn't a downgrade and the 12z won't be out for another 1.5hrs even for the meto forecasters.

Re chris question above, its all about dp's really in this situation as a small

plume of air sits over the sw from France, France has dp's down to -5 to -9 atm and this is keeping dps down to -1 for most of the region from now onwards. The colder dps are not reaching into cornwall and west devon hence the rain there.

Add in some evaporative cooling, a freezing atmosphere from 500, 850 and 925 to the surface and 850-1000 thicknesses below 130 you get all the

ingredients for snow.

personally i can't see anything but snow for eastern areas of our region.

Good post! I think this is going to be a radar watching event! My expectations have lowered now and until Ian comes back on board they will remain lower!

However this is a difficult situation to call, so I remain in the opinion that anything is still possible!

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Iceberg Seasoned

Iceberg

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

wet bulb is really just the difference between 2mt and dp they are both set to be below 0 between cardiff and bristol according to the nae 06z, it's possible that the ukv is saying that nearer the coasts they might be a little high, but i don't see it based on what we have.

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kumquat Seasoned

kumquat

Posted
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
  • Location: Winterbourne, South Glos
Posted

With dry bulb temps at zero or below and the dewpoint the same - I'm not sure Wet bulb temp would be a problem.

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Updated Met Office warnings still suggest 1cm - 5cm widely! I think I might have over-reacted to Ians tweets! They are of a concern, but I will await an update later tonight now!

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alex131297 Newbie

alex131297

Posted
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
Posted

Updated Met Office warnings still suggest 1cm - 5cm widely! I think I might have over-reacted to Ians tweets! They are of a concern, but I will await an update later tonight now!

Yeah think i may have too, he covers a large area and to say were all downgraded :)

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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

wet bulb is really just the difference between 2mt and dp they are both set to be below 0 between cardiff and bristol according to the nae 06z, it's possible that the ukv is saying that nearer the coasts they might be a little high, but i don't see it based on what we have.

Your the South West threads new best friend ... Set a Iceberg Weather twitter account up lol

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted (edited)

K.

Midnight tonight..( today? ) Fri 00

12021006_0906.gif

Lets have a look at the 850's shall we.?

They could be better IMO..

12021006_0906.gif

How about the DP's?

Once again.. Could be better but look very promising.

12021006_0906.gif

All in all id say theres a good chance.

Where the PPN actually lands is completely up in the air IMO. I think its going to be more eastwards that charted but we can only wait and see now.

Edited by Lynxus
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snowmadchrisuk Enthusiast

snowmadchrisuk

Posted
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
  • Location: Weston Super Mare , North Somerset
Posted

K.

Midnight tonight..( today? ) Fri 00

12021006_0906.gif

Lets have a look at the 850's shall we.?

They could be better IMO..

12021006_0906.gif

How about the DP's?

Once again.. Could be better but look very promising.

12021006_0906.gif

All in all id say theres a good chance.

Where the PPN actually lands is completely up in the air IMO. I think its going to be more eastwards that charted but we can only wait and see now.

We will see , but you have to remember the who thing is moving SW , it will exit from the SW so will hit our area eventually for sure.

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alex131297 Newbie

alex131297

Posted
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
Posted · Hidden by alex131297, February 9, 2012 - No reason given
Hidden by alex131297, February 9, 2012 - No reason given

Local forecast points west so thats devon,cornwall included Somerset only place to get the snow! Somerset comes under both forecasts so i dont get ians forecast on my tv :(

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warmintim Enthusiast

warmintim

Posted
  • Location: Warminster
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, stormy
  • Location: Warminster
Posted

Local forecast points west so thats devon,cornwall included Somerset only place to get the snow! Somerset comes under both forecasts so i dont get ians forecast on my tv :(

Sorry - don't understand what you mean? Does that mean only Somerset and not Wilts, Gloucs, Avon etc or do you just mean that Devon and Cornwall won't get snow?

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alex131297 Newbie

alex131297

Posted
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
Posted (edited)

Sorry - don't understand what you mean? Does that mean only Somerset and not Wilts, Gloucs, Avon etc or do you just mean that Devon and Cornwall won't get snow?

Sorry! I mean that all guys get Ian as your forecaster but i dont i get pointswest which includes cornwall, devon, somerset, dorest. And somerset is the only one which will recieve snow. where as ians forecast includes somerset, wilshire, glouster etc but i dont get ians forecast! Whiich may have been a bit more detailed for the snow prospects :/ Its all talk about the rain in my part of the region

Edited by alex131297
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alex131297 Newbie

alex131297

Posted
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
  • Location: Somerset, Outskirts yeovil
Posted · Hidden by alex131297, February 9, 2012 - No reason given
Hidden by alex131297, February 9, 2012 - No reason given

Sorry! I mean that all guys get Ian as your forecaster but i dont i get pointswest which includes cornwall, devon, somerset, dorest. And somerset is the only one which will recieve snow. where as ians forecast includes somerset, wilshire, glouster etc but i dont get ians forecast! Whiich may have been a bit more detailed for the snow prospects :/ because im on the edge of the east of the region Its all talk about the rain in my part of the region

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted

Should be out by 4pm!

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Nights King Accomplished

Nights King

Posted
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow and summer heatwaves.
  • Location: Shepton Mallet 140m ASL
Posted (edited)

Should be out by 4pm!

The final NAE is going to be nail biting waiting for..... boom or bust? :good: I hope we can get lucky just once at least this winter. ;)

I jumped of the fence with both feet at work this morning and said firday morning is going to be snowy! gulp :help:

Edited by mullender83
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