Wales Cymru Weather Discussion Part 5

[J10]

Looking out of the window, i am not sure if it is all rain.

Indeed there is some drizzle in there as well.

[CRACKPOT]

Derek has tweeted the latest NOAA show most of the snow in England- ONLY rain/freezing rain for Wales - new it - winter going out with a whimper but has been whimpering since the start!

Very thick fog up here - temp increased 1.2 degrees in last 40 mins.Balmy at the moment.

JK

Edited February 9, 2012 by CRACKPOT

[andymusic]

Still a developing situation - quite complex - just keep an eye out - it could turn at anytime from now on!

[nwales]

Roll on the bloody spring !

Clywch, clywch! Let's hope the remaining seasons behave themselves. I'm looking a bit pasty after being glued to the radar/forums, could do with some sun!

[ourson]

nothing. nada. zilch. Drizzle and wetness and misst and beggar all else. Even If it does start to snow now it won't settle on wet ground. I officially give up on this winter. And my inlaws are getting more snow in Kent ! Arrrrgh !!!!

Roll on the bloody spring !

Na - PAID!! Ni'n cael eira yn aml yn ystod cyfnod yma'r gaeaf. Chwefror, Mawrth ac Ebrill weithiau yn dod a tywydd gaeafol, oer ayyb.

No DON'T!! We often get snow in this part of the winter. Feb, March and sometimes April deliver the cold and wintery weather.

Edited February 9, 2012 by ourson

[FROZENFOOT]

this will be only about the 2nd time i have not seen it either snowing , or a lot of laying snow outside my door for nearly 30 years. all of my kids were born in february and there has been snow every year from what i can remember............. however there is not a speck of snow any where near me this year.

[Elnonio]

Hmm..... that awkward feeling you get when you actually start believing all the ramping, and telling all your friends and looking like a d***head when it rains.

[Gavla]

Is the ppn still going to shift west my head is hurting looking for positive signs of snow? I cant get on rain today to check is there any other free radars so i can look as well

[Elnonio]

Is the ppn still going to shift west my head is hurting looking for positive signs of snow? I cant get on rain today to check is there any other free radars so i can look as well

Give up, go to bed. Much too much hot air for snow!!

[A_T]

1800 GFS charts give snow for msot of Wales in the next 24 hours

[Carl46Wrexham]

nothing. nada. zilch. Drizzle and wetness and misst and beggar all else. Even If it does start to snow now it won't settle on wet ground. I officially give up on this winter. And my inlaws are getting more snow in Kent ! Arrrrgh !!!!

Roll on the bloody spring !

Here here...this winter has been a steaming pile of dog's mess. Bring on the Spring.

[andymusic]

Worcester is getting a pasting at the mo not far from M50 on traffic cam - and it's heading this way!

[Gavla]

Give up, go to bed. Much too much hot air for snow!!

ok nite all see you next winter lol that made me laugh fair play

[TheWeatherGirl]

Na - PAID!! Ni'n cael eira yn aml yn ystod cyfnod yma'r gaeaf. Chwefror, Mawrth ac Ebrill weithiau yn dod a tywydd gaeafol, oer ayyb.

No DON'T!! We often get snow in this part of the winter. Feb, March and sometimes April deliver the cold and wintery weather.

Yn wir. Diolch !

indeed. Thanks !

[blackrose73]

Worcester is getting a pasting at the mo not far from M50 on traffic cam - and it's heading this way!

It needs to bring the colder uppers with it though!

[Penderyn]

This upper air temperature boundary is so fine it seems....I am nearly 1500ft asl...not seen a hint of sleet since early december

[TEITS]

Here is the reason why in my opinion it all went wrong.

I shall begin by looking back at last nights NAE because this is where it all went pearshaped due to the differences to the radar at that time.

http://expert-images...020821_0818.gif

During yesterday evening it was pretty clear the NAE had this wrong. The area of precip was much further SE with the rain across NE Scotland extending into the N Sea.

Moving onto this morning and the error from the NAE was even more noticeable.

http://expert-images...020909_0900.gif

The NAE suggested only light precip off the coast of NE England into the N Sea when infact it was much heavier and more widespread.

This is when the alarm bells should of been ringing!

http://expert-images...020915_0900.gif

http://expert-images...020918_0900.gif

The NAE suggested the heaviest precip would be towards the NW into N Ireland with only light precip into the N sea. This was wrong because at this stage the radar suggested a widespread area of rain extending well into the N Sea and lighter rain across the N/NW. So basically the models got it the wrong way round.

Now what the models suggested is they thought the heavier band of rain across the NW/N England would move SSW and bring heavy snow to W Midlands/E Wales. At the same time the models predicted only light precip across the E Midlands. They suggested this because according to the NAE only light precip would be over the N Sea. This is where the forecast went pearshaped because the area of across the N Sea was always going to move SSW and because this area was much more extensive it was inevitable this would bring more snow to the E Midlands than currently modelled. Now it isn't any coincidence that once the 12Z NAE got the precip about right the model was then forecasting more snow towards the E Midlands.

So in summary it all went wrong last night and not today. Due to this being further E this resulted in slightly warmer temps across the W and I believe some parts of Wales recorded 5/6C max temps. The area of snow that hit the E Midlands tonight was modelled wrongly because this area across the N Sea was always more widespread, heavier and further SE than the NAE predicted. The Pro forecasters got this wrong because for some reason they followed the models rather than the radar. If the NAE at +0 has the area of precipitation in the wrong place then you cannot base a forecast on the rest of the output. This is pretty much common sense and doesn't require much forecasting skills to realise this.

Im sure John H will defend the Met O but sorry you cannot defend this. Even at 1546 the Met O did not change the forecast from the morning for my region. They continued to predict only light flurries when a glance at the radar would of shown a huge area of precip extending SSW towards the E Midlands.

[Bonjangle]

Wheres this snow then , poddled of lamp post watching lol sour grapes .

[J10]

This is not the first time that there have been forecasts based on into which palpably out of date.

[Jackfrost]

Regarding the last paragraph in TEITS's post, I'd like to see more accountability from the Meto and admissions when they get these things wrong. While a bad weather forecast is hardly the crime of the century, the common whitewashing of inaccurate weather forecasts and the endless self-congratulations on their website when they get it right is a bit nauseating.

Turning sleety here now.

[welshwizard]

hi guys i must say i have drove down to cardiff and back tonight and its mild compared to what its been ov late,also its just drizzle all the way and also very foggy. not a snow flake or even sleet at any time during the drive. so has anywhere in wales had any snow at all as im sure the met said snow for east,and some even said snow in this area. has anywhere had snow? what about midlands etc?

[Summer of 95]

Given up on the "Midlands" thread; who in the England/Wales border region has seen a single day with snow lying this winter?

While people from Birmingham eastwards are raving about 10cm+, winter here has been:

A few days with sleet in mid-December, culminating in 10 minutes of wet snow on the 16th which briefly lay on car roofs.

Freezing Rain and ice pellets at between -1 and 0C all last Saturday afternoon, while less than 20 miles away it snowed for hours.

Now we have drizzle at around 1C while people east of Birmingham are again reporting over 10cm snow.

[alijoe]

Given up on the "Midlands" thread; who in the England/Wales border region has seen a single day with snow lying this winter?

While people from Birmingham eastwards are raving about 10cm+, winter here has been:

A few days with sleet in mid-December, culminating in 10 minutes of wet snow on the 16th which briefly lay on car roofs.

Freezing Rain and ice pellets at between -1 and 0C all last Saturday afternoon, while less than 20 miles away it snowed for hours.

Now we have drizzle at around 1C while people east of Birmingham are again reporting over 10cm snow.

Only had a very slight covering on saturday which lasted a couple of hourse,,,, absolute tosh. This just seems to be a year where only a few seem to get anything. So depressing.

[andymusic]

Looks like some really heavy precip on the way into Wales now - lets hope it's bringing the colder uppers also!

[Jackfrost]

Andy, doesn't it seem to be turning a bit more wintry down there? I'm certain it's now sleeting up here.