Wales Cymru Autumn Weather Discussion

[J10]

Actually, now you mention it, I think I'd prefer a few weeks of uninteresting, unwavering... SUNSHINE

Some low maxima for June/July forecast over the weekend, highs of just 13-14C according to GFS. That's interesting, just not the sort of interesting I was looking for (3 inch hailstones would do).

Same here, although perhaps a big thunderstorm every 2 weeks to keep everyone happy.

Meto are predicting temps a few degrees warmer than that, in the sun out of the wind it will feel warm, but in any cloudier spells in the wind, it will feel decidedly cool. [especially in showers]

And going by the past 2 days, the amount of cloud is difficult to pinpoint, perhaps Sunday a sunnier day [hopefully].

[mikeocarroll]

Meto are predicting temps a few degrees warmer than that, in the sun out of the wind it will feel warm, but in any cloudier spells in the wind, it will feel decidedly cool. [especially in showers]

Well Meto were right on that one, max crept up to 18.4C here this afternoon, which in fact that was a couple of degrees more than the meto forecast for here and way above the gfs, which does have its tendency to undercook daytime temps and overcook night time temps.

[Cwmbran Eira]

So it's the start of July. The height of summer. Instead of enjoying long hot evenings in the garden I'm wrapped up in water proofs worried about vitamin D deficiency due to the lack of sunlight.

I'm even thinking of lending a sun lamp from friend as I'm sure I'm showing symptoms of SAD usually associated with the depths of winter.

It really couldn't get any worse could it.

Edited July 2, 2012 by Cwmbran Eira

[Buzz]

So it's the start of July. The height of summer. Instead of enjoying long hot evenings in the garden I'm wrapped up in water proofs worried about vitamin D deficiency due to the lack of sunlight.

I'm even thinking of lending a sun lamp from friend as I'm sure I'm showing symptoms of SAD usually associated with the depths of winter.

It really couldn't get any worse could it.

Don't tempt fate!

Lousy here, as usual. Rain, rain, rain, rain, rain ................... etc.

[Cwmbran Eira]

Don't tempt fate!

Lousy here, as usual. Rain, rain, rain, rain, rain ................... etc.

I know what you mean.

Throughout the last 6 summers I've been saying "it can't go on like this, it'll get better soon". But it never has. It seems that summers have gotten progressively worse since 2006.

My parents have a caravan near Tenby and are seriously thinking of selling up due to lack of use. I keep telling them that as soon as they sell it we'll have the best summer for years. After all it can't go on like this. There I go again!

edit: just read the BBC monthly forecast. It has to be the worse I have ever seen for summer. Bye bye caravan

Edited July 2, 2012 by Cwmbran Eira

[TonyH]

A very wet week on the cards. Flooding may well be a feature for parts of Wales too.

[Buzz]

I know what you mean.

Throughout the last 6 summers I've been saying "it can't go on like this, it'll get better soon". But it never has. It seems that summers have gotten progressively worse since 2006.

My parents have a caravan near Tenby and are seriously thinking of selling up due to lack of use. I keep telling them that as soon as they sell it we'll have the best summer for years. After all it can't go on like this. There I go again!

edit: just read the BBC monthly forecast. It has to be the worse I have ever seen for summer. Bye bye caravan

Get them to sell that caravan, pronto. We may get some dry sunny weather then ................

[Buzz]

Weather alert ............ it's NOT raining!

Be still my beating heart .................

[J10]

Not a bad day at all today.

Big differences in terms of the modelling for tomorrow between NMM and NAE. Certainly looking very wet for the parts of the Midlands/NW England and this moving W or SW over Wales. At this moment in time Mid and North Wales and looking very wet [amber warning] with potential for heavy rain also for South Wales [yellow warning]. The low pressure is deepening massively, currently forecast to move NW from SE England early tomorrow and as such exact detail is a nightmare atm.

The warnings are based on the NAE (Hi Res Meto model, if they were based on NMM, would have South Wales in amber warning areas.)

NMM has South Wales much wetter than NAE.

NAE -> http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

NMM ->

NMM really seems a worst case scenario in terms of synoptics and rainfall as the heaviest rain seems a direct hit. Baring in mind that a few models in the past 24 hrs have shown completely dry weather for South Wales you can see the massive disagreements.

[mikeocarroll]

Not a bad day at all today.

Big differences in terms of the modelling for tomorrow between NMM and NAE. Certainly looking very wet for the parts of the Midlands/NW England and this moving W or SW over Wales. At this moment in time Mid and North Wales and looking very wet [amber warning] with potential for heavy rain also for South Wales [yellow warning]. The low pressure is deepening massively, currently forecast to move NW from SE England early tomorrow and as such exact detail is a nightmare atm.

The warnings are based on the NAE (Hi Res Meto model, if they were based on NMM, would have South Wales in amber warning areas.)

NMM has South Wales much wetter than NAE.

NAE -> http://www.weatheron...=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

NMM ->

NMM really seems a worst case scenario in terms of synoptics and rainfall as the heaviest rain seems a direct hit. Baring in mind that a few models in the past 24 hrs have shown completely dry weather for South Wales you can see the massive disagreements.

Thanks for that. Looks pretty wet either way although NMM has some scary rain totals not far from here, hard to believe after today being the first dry day in ages, and even got to 23.8C this morning, highest temp for a while.

[keithlucky]

Thanks for that. Looks pretty wet either way although NMM has some scary rain totals not far from here, hard to believe after today being the first dry day in ages, and even got to 23.8C this morning, highest temp for a while.

Nice to have111111111111 dry day should be normal but its not,

[Jackfrost]

South Wales seeming increasingly likely to join in with North and Mid Wales to get some extremely high rainfall totals, just perhaps at different times.

[mikeocarroll]

Some fairly heavy rain here in the initial wave, 6mm in the last 90mins or so. Its the stuff currently over Lincs, S Yorks though that could be dangerous is it swings Wales-ward. Well it'll still be problematic if it doesn't come this way, but for someone else not us!

[mikeocarroll]

Well has rained here steadily all day, never torrential just steady, and is up to 19.2mm now since midnight. Lucky some of the more torrential rain forecast never came as otherwise it would be crazy.

[Buzz]

Steady rain here too - not heavy. But, of course, wet (funny that!). Still we at least managed a dry day yesterday .............

[Bobby]

Fairly heavy persistent rain seems to have set in here.

[TonyH]

Here too, still not really heavy, nonetheless another half inch in the gauge so far today.

[J10]

Synoptically it looked as if NMM called this right (rain edging south west this afternoon/evening. but overdid the rainfall totals. With NAE getting this better in this regard, generally 10-20mm of rain in South Wales, 20-30mm generally in Mid Wales, 40mm locally.

The rain here varied from drizzle to heavy in bursts, but persistent for 4-5 hrs, finally reverting back to drizzle.

[PeteB]

After this mornings/afternoons deluge we now have blue skies!

Pete

[keithlucky]

Synoptically it looked as if NMM called this right (rain edging south west this afternoon/evening. but overdid the rainfall totals. With NAE getting this better in this regard, generally 10-20mm of rain in South Wales, 20-30mm generally in Mid Wales, 40mm locally.

The rain here varied from drizzle to heavy in bursts, but persistent for 4-5 hrs, finally reverting back to drizzle.

Thank god they got it wrong ,more to come i noticed today even the water birds are getting out of the water lol.

[J10]

Thank god they got it wrong ,more to come i noticed today even the water birds are getting out of the water lol.

?????

Looking at rainfall yesterday was bad enough, with local stations NMM overestimated the of recording high 20mm rainfall, but not the mid 40s forecasted intensity of the rainfall but not the persistence and the duration. Not really calling NMM wrong for doing this, just highlighting the difference between forecast and actual.

[TonyH]

Rainfall event well modelled. Another very poor Summer week to come unfortunately, further showers or longer spells of rain and cooler if anything!

More detail in my blog tomorrow...

[snefnug]

looking out of window now (20.28) lovely blue sky,little cloud. Have been very lucky to have had no rain in this little part of The Marches today, really hope for the same tomorrow, as up at stupid time (05.00) to set up stalls for day 2 of our local (Oswestry) annual foodfest. Veg garden a washout and slug haven, but an ancient damask rose in our rampantly weed infested hedge, has a scent that makes up for all.

[TonyH]

This week's guide:

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4435-weather-guide-monday-9th-to-sunday-15th-july-wet-wales-and-central-midlands-specific/

[J10]

Not a bad weekend at all weather wise, yesterday was mostly dry, with the odd spot of rain at times. Today was dry with long sunny spells/intervals and quite warm although a bit cloudier for a time midday and late afternoon.

Given the weather so far this summer, would take this in the absence of hot sunny conditions which look as far away as ever.