Wales Cymru Autumn Weather Discussion

[Methuselah]

Whatever tilt the met office puts on the 3inc of snow that fell in Bath and the surrounding areas .they ignored the GFS from yesterday there strong signals of back edge snow in these areas and they badly let down the local councils who would been ready if they were warned.

Aye, a 10% chance?

[keithlucky]

Aye, a 10% chance?

No if you saw the late forecast only the the wet snow over high ground with no problems to travel.

[andymusic]

Aye, a 10% chance?

yep that's what Ian Ferguson reported back from the meto about the chances of this happening - so they obviously considered the chances to be very low - and in a small area - I suppose on a knife edge situ like this morning - it's a real gamble - warn and it not happen and you put people out that didn't need to be - not warn like today and some roads get closed and are dangerous etc - councils in the report stated that they couldn't grit because of all the rain washing the treatment away - so they had a problem also!

I think when it comes to the weather it isn't always easy to cope with what it throws at us - mind you - other countries seem to manage much better - but you do get reports where even abroad they struggle to cope with this cold weather with multiple pile ups/accidents etc - the weather is a much bigger/stronger and more powerful beast than we realise sometimes - and through all our struggle with it - we just sometimes have to - "Ride Out The Storm" - the best we can

Edited November 4, 2012 by andymusic

[TonyH]

Snow is slightly tricky to forecast Keith, mo did well highlighting snow risk for the south a few days before it came, albeit to somewhat lower levels due to evaporative cooling.

[keithlucky]

Yes i know that T but the forecaster was quite blazay about the snow prospects.

[J10]

When it comes to professional forecasting, is it better to overestimate or underestimate snow amounts, on here it doesn't really matter if we get it wrong.

Quite often recently there has been a tendency to issue Severe Weather Warnings at the drop of a hat, and atm it seems to me that possibly too many are issued rather than too little, but many of these highlight the risk of something happening rather than saying some events will actually happen.

[Liam Ellis]

Had a great journey up to North Wales today, wintry scenes on the hill tops plus a few even lower down, as seen here in Blaenau Ffestiniog!

[Snowmadsam]

At time of writing (5/11/12) longer range models are hinting at colder prospects towards the end of the month.....

Edited November 5, 2012 by Snowmadsam

[swales]

Temps dropping lovely here, 3.2c. Fireworks are doing my head in though, everybody seems to have some in my village tonight.

Showers in-coming judging by the radar... NMM about 3c out for my location at the moment, clear skies see.

[whiskers]

currently nought degrees here,but somehow doesnt feel that cold? love this crisp weather

[andymusic]

yep - unsettled/windy/and cool - order of the day the next 10 - 14 days according to the latest model outputs - typical autumn fair I'd say

[mikeocarroll]

-3.4c here last night, brrr. Interesting to see Stewart/GP's 'winter thoughts' - I'm mostly sceptical of seasonal forecasts but he is pretty bullish in the indicators for a negative AO dominated winter (which would make cold weather much more likely).

[alijoe]

It was really cold last night and was so lovely walking the dog in caldicot castle this morning. Gorgeous ground frost, little ice patches in the puddles and the sun was shining, lets hope we get some more days like this and fingers crossed some snow as well this winter

[andymusic]

GFS 18z giving us some "cold" interest tonight - slowly but surely - cooling us down over many days (nights) towards the 3rd part of this month - as if maybe preparing us for some "major" cold! - you never know - too far off to be certain - and to be fair the 18z is a little untrustworthy - but it's always possible this could be a "trend" to keep an eye out for! - Meto in their longer range text forecasting seems to think below average temps are possible towards the end of this month also - so 2 pieces of the puzzle in place for the moment!

[Snowangel-MK]

Time for a nice new regional thread for you lot.....here you go ...

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74928-wales-cymru-regional-discussion/

locking this one up now !

Edited November 8, 2012 by MKsnowangel