Wales Cymru Autumn Weather Discussion

[Wales123098]

-1.6c right now. Actually colder than last night which I'm surprised at.

[TonyH]

A look at the week's weather (gone and to come) for where I now live and where I hail from:

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4494-weather-guide-monday-29th-october-to-sunday-4th-november-comparing-west-wales-with-the-midlands/

[blackrose73]

I wish I was in Avoriaz in the French alps:

http://livecam.avoriaz.com/

[andymusic]

I wish I was in Avoriaz in the French alps:

http://livecam.avoriaz.com/

yes the alps have had a good amount of snow now - and with all the blocking around we should get ours soon in the not too distant future - I think the 2nd or 3rd week of November!

[TonyH]

I would not hold your breath, snow is still pretty unusual historically even through November - 2010 being a remarkable exception!

Would be great to experience that cold and snow so early again, but more likely we will have many years to wait.

Edited October 28, 2012 by TonyH

[keithlucky]

http://www.dailystar...chilly-winter/I never thought i see i see the day when the met would agree with Joe B you could have knocked me down with a feather lol.

[Wales123098]

already down to 3.5c at 9pm. Might dip down close to zero or slightly below at this rate. Cold for time of year

[keithlucky]

This is the best chart of the day IF it comes off a white bonfire night for Wales

[TonyH]

Not sure why your chart suggests wintriness Keith, as this chart from the same model run certainly does not:

Well, except for on high ground possibly.

Edited October 29, 2012 by TonyH

[andymusic]

early morning snow this coming friday apparently!

[J10]

I would not hold your breath, snow is still pretty unusual historically even through November - 2010 being a remarkable exception!

Would be great to experience that cold and snow so early again, but more likely we will have many years to wait.

The best snow locally we had locally in November was in 2005 (25th November 2005 and I have attached my weather blog for that day.)

25^th November 2005

In the early morning at around 1am, There was continuous snowfall but drizzly, and although, the cars and grass were covered, it wasn't sticking on the paths, so I hoped for a whiteout, but I thought that although there probably would be more snow on the grass and car, that would be about it.

At 6am, I woke to see a whiteout outside, there was heavy snow and the temperature was -1c. The Depth on the car was probably around 5 inches, about 4 inches on the grass, with 2 inches on the roads, as it had been wet before, Very Nice Indeed.

Wet down the hill in the car to see the snow, but by the tie we got back, the road was impassable, I walked the hill to get ready for work and on the return a fire engine has got stuck in the middle of the road, which got stuck as it tries to get up the hill. So I finally managed to get to work 1 and half-hour late, I had phoned in and there were no real problems.

In work, thaw snow on lower ground had started to thaw, but on my return to home, there had hardly been a thaw. It now looks almost certain, that we are going to have a snow day to meet the Met Office snow rules (of 50%) coverage for 2 successive days for the first time in about 5 years. Maximum Temps at around 3c on low ground, closer to 1c here. This is the first time I can ever remember such an event in November, and just goes to show that with a cold NNW wind, we are very well placed, to see heavy snowfalls.

In contrast, in November 2010 we did badly but other parts of Swansea did much better even on much lower ground.

But these events were at the end of November, the start of November makes such events very unlikely.

Edited October 29, 2012 by Jackone

[TonyH]

Not seen much in the way of November snow in my time, probably a once in 10 year affair to settle and then never above a couple of inches.

[TonyH]

Report from my COL bulletin from Nov 2005:

Swansea City: The main event of the month was the much

forecast, but still unexpected for this area, heavy

snow showers late evening and overnight

24th/25th; 5cm depth lying at 0800GMT/25th. This

was the heaviest local snowfall in November for

over 30 years. Needless to say, it caused chaos in

the morning rush hour with many schools closed.

Edited October 29, 2012 by TonyH

[J10]

Not seen much in the way of November snow in my time, probably a once in 10 year affair to settle and then never above a couple of inches.

2005 was the only decent snow event in November, there was one event in the mid 90s when there was an overnight covering towards the end of November. so on this basis 1 in every 10 years is about right. Looking back at my records there was no lying snow here in November 2010, although most other areas did better. Strangely enough in 2005-06, there were 2 good snow events one in November and one in March (1st), nothing of note in Winter itself.

Probably 2 inches was about right for lower ground, but there was a lot more than that on grass on higher ground, measured to Stratosferric measurements no less!!. When it got colder overnight the snow setted on all surfaces, but struggled initially to settle on lower ground and on pavements etc, giving quite a variety of snow depth on different surfaces.

I have still got some snaps in my gallery of those snow events.

http://forum.netweat...58-image879jpg/

http://forum.netweat...57-image946jpg/

Edited October 29, 2012 by Jackone

[TonyH]

The most I have seen in Nov was the end of 2010, when 5cm fell and lay for the next 2 weeks - remarkable so early on.

Edited October 29, 2012 by TonyH

[J10]

The most I have seen in Nov was the end of 2010, when 5cm fell and lay for the next 2 weeks - remarkable so early on.

We missed out on that.

It snowed here but didn't settle.

[Wales123098]

I remember snow around the November 15th time here in SE Wales? I must of been about 12 at the time so I can't really remember. Also November 2010 towards the end of the month we saw snow like most did in Wales.

[J10]

A few other photos from March 2006

However these as you might have guessed were not taken locally but in a skiing trip to Avoriaz. - the webcams shown elsewhere don't really do it justice.

[Marcus_surfer]

I remember 25th November 2005 greatly, it was very unexpected and left quite a dumping of snow (around 3 inches) i remember it melting quite quickly however.

Jackone do you do a write up of every snowfall event? If so i Would love to see what you have written for the winter of 2009 and 2010 snowfalls if you dont mind me asking .

[J10]

I remember 25th November 2005 greatly, it was very unexpected and left quite a dumping of snow (around 3 inches) i remember it melting quite quickly however.

Jackone do you do a write up of every snowfall event? If so i Would love to see what you have written for the winter of 2009 and 2010 snowfalls if you dont mind me asking .

For each winter since I got a computer in 2001-date, I have done a spreadsheet, containing forecasted weather and actual weather, before this I did a paper versions of the same Unfortunately my computer crashed in 2004, so I lost a few years complete records but I did backup snow summaries.

Indeed Here is the complete snow records for winter.

1999-2000

14-Dec-99 Wintry Showers

18-Dec-99 Ice Flakes Early On, Saw Major Snow In Bath in Evening

19-Dec-99 Plenty of Snow in Bath

26-Dec-99 Wintry Showers

28-Dec-99 Wintry Showers

Since 2005 I have also done a winter weather blog detailing the weather from around November onwards until around Mid March, however at the weather gets milder in March the entries get shorter and shorter.

Does that make me a weather nerd, no, but the fact that I posted 14000+ entries on the weather forums suggests I am.!!!!!

The blogs are available for anyone who wants them, however please note that there are spelling mistakes aplenty.

Edited October 29, 2012 by Jackone

[andymusic]

Could be some interesting weather coming through Wales tomorrow. A squall line will move through sometime in the afternoon - potential for some "stormy" weather + thursday morning potential on nae for a little high altitude snow in southern Wales -

GFS 18z update

Edited October 30, 2012 by andymusic

[mikeocarroll]

That's the smallest blob of pink ever, not really convinced, perhaps there'll be some sleet at the top of the Brecon Beacons?

The cold front tomorrow looks interesting, should be windy through the day and then some heavy rain when the front passes, some great images here from NMM model for 1pm tomorrow:

Edited October 30, 2012 by mikeocarroll

[mikeocarroll]

OK 18z is a bigger pink blob. I'd still be surprised to see white stuff, but hey some chance is better than no chance!

[Marcus_surfer]

I reckon the beacons will have quite a decent covering of snow say above 700m by Saturday

[andymusic]

OK 18z is a bigger pink blob. I'd still be surprised to see white stuff, but hey some chance is better than no chance!

agreed - models are very "fluid" with this set up at the moment so I suppose it could go either way! But from temps etc it looks like only highest altitudes will be affected anyway at the moment - still early in the season though - lots to play for!