Wales Cymru Autumn Weather Discussion

[andymusic]

Hi Welshwizard - according to both GFS and ECM the wind and rain will probably get going on wednesday itself!!!!!! (for towing I would defo keep a close eye on the latest forecast) - colder spell is only gonna be a shortish affair now up until about monday/tuesday, although we are not going to bounce back into the high teens afterwards into next week - probably stick around single figure temp numbers from now on!

Edited October 25, 2012 by andymusic

[mikeocarroll]

The latest couple of NMM runs are an upgrade for the next couple of days IMO, with sub-528 thicknesses spreading right across Wales on Friday night and upper air temps of -6 to -8. If there was any heavy precip, it would have a decent chance of falling as snow even to low levels. Sadly it doesn't look like there will be any precip at all and it's hard to see how there could be with an NE / NNE flow not being strong enough to pull showers across from the east coast of England.

This won't stop me checking the radar obsessively though!

[keithlucky]

Interesting for the next few weeks no sign of warmth from a few different sources WINTER’S first freeze arrives tomorrow as snow hits the North and temperatures fall towards -10C (14F).

Weathermen forecast half-term tobogganing next week and an “exceptional†autumn cold spell lasting until late November.

The Met Office said Arctic air is expected to bring snow to Scotland and sleet to the Pennines and North York Moors as English schools break up tomorrow.

Gritters are being readied in northern England to cope with a widespread cold snap. Weathermen said Saturday would see wintry showers of hail down the east coast and snow later in Scotland, with other parts sunny but 4C highs in the North and 8C in the South, with -2C nights.

The Weather Outlook said snow also threatens hills in the South next week, with the risk of “significantly below-average temperatures†for the next two weeks in an “exceptional†cold spell for the time of year.

[mikeocarroll]

LOL is that the Mail or Express or something. Temps approaching -10c? Half-term tobogganing? Perhaps if you're planning a holiday to Norway? And as for snow next week on hills in the south, not the south of England or Wales I don't think.

Got to love tabloid newspapers!

[keithlucky]

Yes agreed north uk as far south as the white stuff will get at the moment but plenty of promise over the next few weeks.

[welshgritter]

Thise headlines have to be the Daily Mail. They love to strike fear into the British public !!!!

[TonyH]

And the British public still pay for it!

Cool, rain at times, some heavy later next week (probably not enough for much in the way of flooding though), some brighter drier days, some slight night frosts between rain areas- seems to be the theme for the next week or so.

Edited October 26, 2012 by TonyH

[andymusic]

GFS 12z - discussed at length in the model thread - we are very close to some cold/snowy weather for Wales - all depends or the orientation of this "storm" low we are gonna be having next week - one of the solutions today gives Wales a chance to benefit from being on the colder northerly wind side of the low leading to some snow - of course add in some cold gusty winds and you could have the recipe for some "interesting" winter conditions

[Marcus_surfer]

down to 4 degrees here, pretty chilly

[Snowmadsam]

down to 1 here...dp 0.5

a dangler looks to be setting up....

[mikeocarroll]

Reached a max of 9.0C today in the sunshine. 4.2C here currently which is a little warmer than I was expecting; it's cloudy out now I think. I'm still hoping for a decent frost, perhaps sub -2C for the first time this season, but the temps will have to get a move on if they want to get down that low tonight.

GFS 12z - discussed at length in the model thread - we are very close to some cold/snowy weather for Wales - all depends or the orientation of this "storm" low we are gonna be having next week - one of the solutions today gives Wales a chance to benefit from being on the colder northerly wind side of the low leading to some snow - of course add in some cold gusty winds and you could have the recipe for some "interesting" winter conditions

It's great to have something to look at at this time of year, amazing synoptics for the start of Nov. I think even the best case shown on today's GFS 12z was marginal for snow though, and was cold compared to its ensembles. Could be pretty windy on Weds/Thus, and will feel raw.

@stormmadsam (time to go back to snowmadsam?) - there is the possibility of some precip from a dangler type set-up over Pembrokeshire. I would think the risk is low, and I'm not sure that precip would be snow (you're that bit further from the cold uppers coming from the NE), but definitely worth watching out for tonight.

[Snowmadsam]

Reached a max of 9.0C today in the sunshine. 4.2C here currently which is a little warmer than I was expecting; it's cloudy out now I think. I'm still hoping for a decent frost, perhaps sub -2C for the first time this season, but the temps will have to get a move on if they want to get down that low tonight.

It's great to have something to look at at this time of year, amazing synoptics for the start of Nov. I think even the best case shown on today's GFS 12z was marginal for snow though, and was cold compared to its ensembles. Could be pretty windy on Weds/Thus, and will feel raw.

@stormmadsam (time to go back to snowmadsam?) - there is the possibility of some precip from a dangler type set-up over Pembrokeshire. I would think the risk is low, and I'm not sure that precip would be snow (you're that bit further from the cold uppers coming from the NE), but definitely worth watching out for tonight.

Snowmadsam is back!!!

on the border line now.....coming into -6 air....will have to wait and see

[TonyH]

Pretty sure these light showers will be of rain, the dp and temp will rise with the cloud when they come over.

[Snowmadsam]

Pretty sure these light showers will be of rain, the dp and temp will rise with the cloud when they come over.

thats funny.....I have some very light gains of snow falling

[keithlucky]

thats funny.....I have some very light gains of snow falling

You will have to move Sam to the N east snowing there and they will have a good covering by the morning, looking at the radar.The favoured city of Aberdeen could see 6cms tonight . Edited October 26, 2012 by keithlucky

[Snowmadsam]

You will have to move Sam to the N east snowing there and they get a good covering by the morning, looking at the radar.The favoured city of Aberdeen could see 6cms tonight .

ohhh lovely....i'm sure we will get something later on

[TonyH]

Down to -3.7c earlier, very chilly for this stage in the proceedings.

You snowed in Sam?

[Snowmadsam]

Down to -3.7c earlier, very chilly for this stage in the proceedings.

You snowed in Sam?

No..sadly

[TonyH]

October snow is extremely rare, I have only seen it twice, and only on the ground once (2008), and I am 52.

Not as cold as Oct 2010 when it got down to -5.6c.

My sister had thundersnow near Newcastle last night!

Edited October 27, 2012 by TonyH

[welshgritter]

First two grits of the winter. Last night and today (just got home)....... Can't see me gritting next for a couple of weeks I wouldn't have thought.

[Marcus_surfer]

Close to -2C this morning, very chilly wind today, but plenty of sunshine.

[mikeocarroll]

-2.1C min here overnight, chilly but not exceptional for the time of year. Max today appears to have been 8.6C, so a touch cooler than yesterday. Glorious sunshine all day long, has been the nicest day in ages!

[Scarlet_Snow]

Had a low of -0.2c here this morning with a decent frost too

[J10]

Very sunny here today, warm in the sun, cold in the shade.

[mikeocarroll]

-2.9C here now, that's more like the cold I was expecting last night! Coldest of the season so far. Milder air should move in after midnight though so not expecting temp to fall much further.