Wales Cymru Autumn Weather Discussion

[TonyH]

Cold one tonight, dipped to zero already.

[virtualsphere]

Nice to see the sun again this afternoon, hoping for more of the same tomorrow before the wet weather returns next week!

Just out of interest what is the annual rainfall record here in Wales - I guess we're probably not going to break it as it wasn't that wet before April / May?

[dyl232]

Some heavy hail here in north wales. Lets hope this winter brings us all a gud un!!

[mikeocarroll]

Finally an air frost here last night, got down to -1.0c, it's -0.2C currently.

It's been a fairly cool October so far, tentatively looks like the second half may be a little milder. Still another 6 weeks until the start of winter, the crappy summer seems to have made the run up to winter seem longer than usual.

[welshgritter]

If I remember rightly it started around the last week or few days of Nov 2010 and went on through December till boxing day at least!

I carry out private gritting for western power/welsh water/boc gases etc etc. In 2010 I started gritting in the last week of November and it went right through to the second week of January. It kind of fizzled out then for the second half of January and all of February was mild. We did the odd gritting in this period but it was neither here nor there. Winter then had a sting in its tail and come back in March where we done a tidy amount in January before spring took over. Good Year over all !!!

[Cwmbran Eira]

1st notable ground frost this morning.

not sure what temperature we got down to though. Think the temp monitor needs a new battery

[TonyH]

A look at the week ahead:

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4486-weather-guide-monday-15th-to-sunday-21st-october-2012/

[andymusic]

Well folks GFS 6 and 12zs starting to possibly show some colder weather on it's way towards the end of this month - admittedly model ens outliers - but, could well be a trend setting up for some early snowfall as we prepare for November - Joe B has already said to prepare for a cold November and a brutal winter 2012/13 - so this could well be an early start of the winter proceedings - we await further model runs over the coming days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

latest tweet from Joe B -

"Much of europe to turn cold for November too.. N Hemisphere in for a wild winter this year Global warming will turn to climate change"

interesting article - http://www.dailymail...t-prove-it.html

Edited October 16, 2012 by andymusic

[alijoe]

Well folks GFS 6 and 12zs starting to possibly show some colder weather on it's way towards the end of this month - admittedly model ens outliers - but, could well be a trend setting up for some early snowfall as we prepare for November - Joe B has already said to prepare for a cold November and a brutal winter 2012/13 - so this could well be an early start of the winter proceedings - we await further model runs over the coming days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

latest tweet from Joes B -

"Much of europe to turn cold for November too.. N Hemisphere in for a wild winter this year Global warming will turn to climate change"

interesting article - http://www.dailymail...t-prove-it.html

ummm that time of year again, let the rollercoaster begin and let it be a Good one this year, fingers crossed

[andymusic]

ummm that time of year again, let the rollercoaster begin and let it be a Good one this year, fingers crossed

Hi Ali, yep seems to be starting early this year (possibly) - hope you've had a good year so far, and looking forward to the season ahead!

[alijoe]

Hi Ali, yep seems to be starting early this year (possibly) - hope you've had a good year so far, and looking forward to the season ahead!

Thanks Andy, yep all good here, hope you have too. Looking forward to all your fab updates and hopefully talk of your sledge shopping trips and blizzards lol, we live in hope

[keithlucky]

First general cold snap for Wales early next week with a keen cold North wind blowing with general frost around ,Winter on its way strange though mentioned on radio 5 and Bbc this morning but no met office mention of cold snap next week.

[TonyH]

Warm snap more like Keith, 18c or so Monday and Tuesday, then a big cool down by the following weekend.

[andymusic]

Colder weather pretty much guaranteed now end of next week - just further detail needed on how cold and for how long - looks like scotland and northern england at least could see some low level snow - but we in Wales will definitely feel the lower temps! - terrible news about the incidents today in Cardiff - hope everyone is ok that has been hit by this van - but already some rumours that there might be some fatalities!

edit:- unfortunately one 32 year old has been killed - so 31 year old driver is now on a murder charge - very very sad!!!

edit 2:- ECM 12z model giving us unbelievable extreme cold weather for October in the UK for the end of next week now! WOW!

Edited October 19, 2012 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

For days now metcheck which is consider very unreliable(based only on GFS output)had general sleet across the UK for Friday looks like winter starting early this year.

Edited October 19, 2012 by keithlucky

[TonyH]

First a pleasant mild week to come...and possibly the final spell with temperatures into the 60's til next Spring?

Tuesday bearing in mind GFS can undercook maxima:

Decidedly cool by the weekend, although sleet or snow must surely be restricted to very high ground?

In any case we should be dry:

Edited October 20, 2012 by TonyH

[andymusic]

A SNOW teaser for the 29th October

Joe B - Euro temps going into wintery tank as the arctic presses its agenda. Coldest start to Nov in many a year shaping up

Edited October 20, 2012 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

Looking good Andy

[TonyH]

A look ahead to the expected conditions this week:

http://forum.netweather.tv/blog/309/entry-4487-weather-guide-for-the-west-wales-and-central-midlands-for-the-week-monday-22nd-to-sunday-28th-october-2012/

[welshgritter]

Surely Winter aint coming this early ?

[andymusic]

Surely Winter aint coming this early ?

looks like the cold will be with us by the end of this week - detail for any rain/sleet/snow/icy conditions yet to be formulated!

[whiskers]

Has anyone else noticed mushrooms growing in their garden? ive had loads,never had them b4, a sign of anything?

[welshgritter]

Is this it? Is it all systems go?? Or is it a one off two day event and the mild comes back?

[keithlucky]

Is this it? Is it all systems go?? Or is it a one off two day event and the mild comes back?

Wait and see at the moment seems that the first part of November plenty of frosts ,but no mild s westerlies wind from Friday onwards.

[mikeocarroll]

Is this it? Is it all systems go?? Or is it a one off two day event and the mild comes back?

I agree with Keith, it's still up in the air (literally).

The intial cold blast - cold for Oct rather than for winter, so not expecting snow away from mountains - comes next Friday night with -5c uppers just about reaching us. GFS, ECM & UKMO all show this although there is still a small chance that the cold uppers will head further east and miss us altogether. GFS at 132 then ECM at 144 hours:

After that there is quite a divergence with the GFS allowing high pressure and slightly warmer uppers to drift over us, which would still mean some pretty cold nights, but eventually drifts into a cool westerly pattern deeper into FI:

The ECM meanwhile develops a feature sinking south over the UK, which keeps the cold uppers longer and would also bring precipitation, which would possibly be wintry over hills and snowy at the tops of Snowdonia mountains.

Both the above charts are for 192 hours, i.e. 2-3 days after the cold arrives, so you can see there is still very much divergence as to how long the cold will last for. It will feel quite wintry for the time of year especially with the hour going back.

It's all very interesting watching this develop and it's impossible not to hope that it will upgrade will bring us some early snow, but realistically it is very hard to see how that could happen. I'm looking forward to some cold nights though, and those who haven't had a proper frost yet should get one.

And then it will be interesting to see what November brings, and after that, finally, winter. Let's hope it's a good one.

Edited October 21, 2012 by mikeocarroll