Wales Cymru Autumn Weather Discussion

[andymusic]

29th October showing up again on GFS 18z - clocks will have gone back making the nights "feel" longer!

Edited October 21, 2012 by andymusic

[welshgritter]

Any updates today all ??

[keithlucky]

Better chart for Wales more of a North by Northwest flow.

Edited October 22, 2012 by keithlucky

[welshgritter]

will it be cold? wont it be ??? cant read charts - hopeless.

[andymusic]

will it be cold? wont it be ??? cant read charts - hopeless.

It will be noticeably colder - but still a little too early for anything majorly wintery just yet - may well get some more severe frosts over night though (if that gets your gritting work moving) - however - in these sorts of situations something more severe has the potential to surface once the colder temps start to dig in!

[mikeocarroll]

By my reckoning the charts for Fri/Sat are similar in terms of level of cold to those from yesterday, the more NWerly angle would help showers/precipitation for Wales, which would be great if the cold was embedded enough for snow, but that it unlikely to be the case this week.

However, overall the outlook is more negative in terms of lasting cold, the ECM & UKMO have moved towards the GFS solution, which I posted yesterday, showing heights sinking over the UK and then to the SW, moving the cold uppers away quickly, leaving us with a short (48 hour max) cold spell, giving way to a cool NWerly / straight Werly flow. This is today's GFS 12z forecast for next Monday - cool but not cold, wet and windy weather approaching:

[TonyH]

At last reached the magic 60f mark for the first time this month, this in spite of no sunshine!

[keithlucky]

Looks like the Northerly wind it set for the weekend with general frosts across Wales and possible snow showers for high ground for North Wales, If this set up was in a month time we would become keen radar watches again with possible Jackone snow streamers forming LOL.

[TonyH]

Sad but I am ALWAYS a keen radar watcher!

[keithlucky]

Sad but I am ALWAYS a keen radar watcher!

Yes we weather geeks T the worse time is when you see a large shower approaching your area then next radar shot it vanished .

[welshgritter]

Thanks for the feedback guys. My business (which is a welsh business not a national !) grits some gas stations/power stations as we as your usual office sites etc etc. the GS temp only has to hit zero degrees (red alert) at any point during the day (24 hour sites) and its all systems go (they don't like risk!). tbh i'm flat out anyway with other stuff, but I still have to be prepared !!

[mikeocarroll]

At last reached the magic 60f mark for the first time this month, this in spite of no sunshine!

Still not got that here, came close a couple of days, but nowhere near today. It happened on 15 days last October, but that was a remarkably warm month. It's been grim and murky all month here, lots of gloom and drizzle, and just 2 dry days so far, but not that much water falling from the sky, less than 60mm so far. Was a min of 11.6c last night which is fairly high for the time of year I think.

Looks like the Northerly wind it set for the weekend with general frosts across Wales and possible snow showers for high ground for North Wales, If this set up was in a month time we would become keen radar watches again with possible Jackone snow streamers forming LOL.

Some small changes to the models today suggest the cold spell will be more prolonged (though sadly not any deeper cold, so close to snowiness and yet so far), rather than the 48hr snap I was suggesting yesterday. The GFS ensembles show nearly all members going for cold for at least 10 days from Thursday, although it's quite possible that tomorrow the models will flip back and show something completely different, such are the dubious joys of model watching:

Thanks for the feedback guys. My business (which is a welsh business not a national !) grits some gas stations/power stations as we as your usual office sites etc etc. the GS temp only has to hit zero degrees (red alert) at any point during the day (24 hour sites) and its all systems go (they don't like risk!). tbh i'm flat out anyway with other stuff, but I still have to be prepared !!

Temps will certainly fall below freezing on Friday night, and probably for most nights over the weekend and into next week, so I'd get ready for some extra work!

[keithlucky]

ome small changes to the models today suggest the cold spell will be more prolonged (though sadly not any deeper cold, so close to snowiness and yet so far), rather than the 48hr snap I was suggesting yesterday. The GFS ensembles show nearly all members going for cold for at least 10 days from Thursday, although it's quite possible that tomorrow the models will flip back and show something completely different, such are the dubious joys of model watching:One thing Mike I cannot see any warm up in the next 10 days i had a look at the ensembles and bar the odd blip i cannot see any warmer spells http://www.wetterzen..._London_ens.png

[J10]

Looks like the Northerly wind it set for the weekend with general frosts across Wales and possible snow showers for high ground for North Wales, If this set up was in a month time we would become keen radar watches again with possible Jackone snow streamers forming LOL.

My name has been mentioned

Not really commented for a while as taken a bit of a break. Cold for time of year and it will certainly be a shock, but as others have said not the cold needed for any real wintriness for most. Might have been different a month later down the line, but even then possibly a bit marginal.

Looking forward Northern Blocking, and a southerly jet are all positive factors, fingers crossed that ENSO remains relatively neutral in its effects.

[TonyH]

Warm sunny intervals temp on the rise 15c. Porthmadog made 18c yesterday and somewhere should reach this level this afternoon.

[TonyH]

A thoroughly warm sunny spell now 17c easily the warmest of this month.

[A Gower Guy]

indeed a nice afternoon, nearest station (other side of Lougher Estuary) on wunderground is reporting 18.2°c

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=51.680%2C-4.141&sp=ICARMART4

[TonyH]

Yep accurate too that one in Llanelli Rob- an expensive Davis VP. Could be our last experience of warm sunshine and 17 to 18c until next Spring..

[Scarlet_Snow]

My station currently showing 19.7c, its not that accurate in the sun due to bad positioning on my part, but was surprised to see it climb slightly over 20 degrees earlier!

[andymusic]

Wales could well have some serious amounts of rain and wind next week leading to some further flooding problems!

[J10]

Yep accurate too that one in Llanelli Rob- an expensive Davis VP. Could be our last experience of warm sunshine and 17 to 18c until next Spring..

Indeed very pleasant out there today.

[welshgritter]

hows the cold still looking all??

[mikeocarroll]

Pah, all these people with lovely weather, still under murk & muck here in the vale of Powys, though it did get up to 13.7c earlier this afternoon, scorchio!

Not too much change re: cold forecasts, will know more tomorrow when it comes within range of the NMM. 10am Friday is showing a VERY slight snow risk over mountain areas.

And temps midday Friday just 4-5C over large parts of Wales, pretty brisk for October.

[judowidow]

Grey Muck in Abergavenny too, totally depressing, don't mind the cold as long as its Sunny and Dry :-)

[welshwizard]

Hi all been a while since i been posting on here,weather forcast said about getting colder over the next few days,dont mind the cold but this wind is quite strong up here today and i hate the wind,i notiuced Andy you said rain and wind next week,any idea what it be like on weds,we got to tow a large caravan on the motorways and hate towing in strong winds.would rather delay or not tow at all. i thought it was going to get cold and sunny for the next week or so with light winds and frosts. any adivse be great guys as i dont want to take a risk.