Arctic Ice Discussion (The Melt)

[jethro]

Or perhaps folk are content to just wait for the end of season figures.

Can't speak for anyone else but for me personally, I find this watching every square inch of ice rather tedious.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Or perhaps folk are content to just wait for the end of season figures.

Can't speak for anyone else but for me personally, I find this watching every square inch of ice rather tedious.

They weren't content to in March and April!

Nobody is forcing you to read any sea ice analysis, but some do find the changing sea ice dynamics and atmospheric influences interesting. Do you post on every sub forum/thread that you don't like just to tell them you don't like it?

[Methuselah]

Even WUWT seems to have gone very quiet.

Even so, what's happening this year could be down to synoptics? Then, of course, the synoptics could be a result of the ice-loss? Who knows?

[jethro]

They weren't content to in March and April!

Nobody is forcing you to read any sea ice analysis, but some do find the changing sea ice dynamics and atmospheric influences interesting. Do you post on every sub forum/thread that you don't like just to tell them you don't like it?

Only those which have participants who interpret no comment as having greater meaning than just, no comment.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Synoptics are certainly playing their part, but some of what we're seeing this year are clearly due to a very thin and fragile pack.

Take this these MODIS images for instance, showing roughly the 4th of July for the years 2009-2012.

The ice around the Pacific side is in really awful condition already this year, and much worse than recent years.

If synoptics were the only thing at play, we'd expect summer temperatures so far this year to be much warmer than recent, but they're not. The last 3 years are quite similar, and 2010 looks slightly warmer even.

Jethro, the thread title is "Arctic Ice Discussion (The Melt)". If you find discussion of the topic tedious, shouldn't you find something better to do with your time than post here? Or are you just posting out of spite?

[jethro]

Synoptics are certainly playing their part, but some of what we're seeing this year are clearly due to a very thin and fragile pack.

Take this these MODIS images for instance, showing roughly the 4th of July for the years 2009-2012.

The ice around the Pacific side is in really awful condition already this year, and much worse than recent years.

If synoptics were the only thing at play, we'd expect summer temperatures so far this year to be much warmer than recent, but they're not. The last 3 years are quite similar, and 2010 looks slightly warmer even.

Jethro, the thread title is "Arctic Ice Discussion (The Melt)". If you find discussion of the topic tedious, shouldn't you find something better to do with your time than post here? Or are you just posting out of spite?

Why would you interpret a comment directed at GW in answer to his interpretation of no comments, as having greater meaning than just no comment, as spite?

We've been here before BFTV, very recently. There is no conflict between GW and I, why you continue to try to either provoke some or interpret my posts as having some bizarre unspoken meaning is beyond me. Perhaps as I asked before, you could explain via PM why you continue to persist in this attitude.

Or should I just assume that no opposing views are welcome in here and any means necessary will be used in order to deter dissenting voices from joining in?

[cooling climate]

Or perhaps folk are content to just wait for the end of season figures.

Can't speak for anyone else but for me personally, I find this watching every square inch of ice rather tedious.

couldn't agree more. same couple of posters dishing out the same old drivel. Pop into the

thread to see if there is anything of interest that has been posted and normally pop out

just as quick.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Why would you interpret a comment directed at GW in answer to his interpretation of no comments, as having greater meaning than just no comment, as spite?

We've been here before BFTV, very recently. There is no conflict between GW and I, why you continue to try to either provoke some or interpret my posts as having some bizarre unspoken meaning is beyond me. Perhaps as I asked before, you could explain via PM why you continue to persist in this attitude.

Or should I just assume that no opposing views are welcome in here and any means necessary will be used in order to deter dissenting voices from joining in?

Nothing to do with you and GW, so no need to go off on one and accusing me of provoking anything.

It was this quote that I was referring to...

Can't speak for anyone else but for me personally, I find this watching every square inch of ice rather tedious.

I read no opposing view in that line, just an exaggerated comment, belittling those who follow the sea ice changes in detail on a daily basis (but how I wish we had data accurate to the inch!)

Hopefully the bizarre interpretation I made of your comments makes sense now.

[Devonian]

couldn't agree more. same couple of posters dishing out the same old drivel. Pop into the

thread to see if there is anything of interest that has been posted and normally pop out

just as quick.

Fine, you're not told to read this thread?

I find the on going data of interest. Bftv and otherd are interested in the Arctic sea ice - day to day. I'm fine with that like I'm fine with people who post a lot to model thread, or convection thread or (dare i say) threads about possible snowfalls.

[jethro]

Nothing to do with you and GW, so no need to go off on one and accusing me of provoking anything.

It was this quote that I was referring to...

I read no opposing view in that line, just an exaggerated comment, belittling those who follow the sea ice changes in detail on a daily basis (but how I wish we had data accurate to the inch!)

Hopefully the bizarre interpretation I made of your comments makes sense now.

So are you saying that if I express an opinion and make it absolutely clear that it is my personal opinion, then I am belittling people? Again, I find that a bizarre interpretation. You express your opinion regularly in this and many other threads, no one accuses you of belittling others, people, including myself accept that it is your opinion and that you are entitled to it. I think that kind of respect should be afforded to all, in fact it is a stipulation of the code of conduct.

Had I have said I think you and others who contribute here are fools or idiots to follow the ice melt, then I would expect a rebuke - in fact I'd have had to delete my own post. If I were ever to make such a post feel free to rebuke me or report it, but please stop this nonsense of interpreting my posts as having sinister under currents. You're seeing things which aren't there; if I was going to be rude to somebody, I would just be rude, I wouldn't waste my time with insinuations.

[Methuselah]

couldn't agree more. same couple of posters dishing out the same old drivel. Pop into the

thread to see if there is anything of interest that has been posted and normally pop out

just as quick.

How is posting the latest data 'dishing out the same old drivel'? We can make of it what we like?

[BornFromTheVoid]

So are you saying that if I express an opinion and make it absolutely clear that it is my personal opinion, then I am belittling people?

Nope that's not what I'm saying, as I'm sure you know.

Again, I find that a bizarre interpretation.

Well, you did make that straw man up all by yourself!

You express your opinion regularly in this and many other threads, no one accuses you of belittling others, people, including myself accept that it is your opinion and that you are entitled to it. I think that kind of respect should be afforded to all, in fact it is a stipulation of the code of conduct.

I agree completely.

Had I have said I think you and others who contribute here are fools or idiots to follow the ice melt, then I would expect a rebuke - in fact I'd have had to delete my own post. If I were ever to make such a post feel free to rebuke me or report it, but please stop this nonsense of interpreting my posts as having sinister under currents. You're seeing things which aren't there; if I was going to be rude to somebody, I would just be rude, I wouldn't waste my time with insinuations.

If I went and posted in the model output discussion thread and said

Can't speak for anyone else but for me personally, I find this watching of the weather models every day to be tedious

How do you think they'd react? How long would my post even remain?

Or maybe if I go onto a thread in the hurricane watch thread and say

Can't speak for anyone else but for me personally, I find this watching every square inch of this hurricane rather tedious

I doubt my post would be received well.

But it's ok to post it in this thread?

[jethro]

Oh I give up. If you want to be annoyed at what I said, then be annoyed. If you want to endlessly and needlessly pick up on every post I make here, then do so. I won't however be responding any more, you'll have to find somebody else to moan at.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Here's another tedious moan, so better avert your eyes!

Anywho, the Beaufort sea has been at least partially open for the over 6 weeks now, as the SSTs are beginning to climb quite a lot, with temperatures widely in the mid single figures but above 10C near the coast. The Beaufort Gyre may begin pulling these very mild waters under the already broken up ice of the Pacific side of the Arctic basin, accelerating the melt further.

http://polar.ncep.no...t_NPS_ophi0.png

http://pafc.arh.noaa...ice.php?img=sst

http://ocean.dmi.dk/...te/index.uk.php

It may be interesting to see how high these ssts can get in the next 2 months.

For those that find this alarmist, boring, tedious, or just pointless drivel but still choose to read, here's a gif of a cat putting on sun glasses, just for ye

[Rainy]

Oh my. Let's get back to the observations. Be thankful. We are living in a time when we are privileged to be able to capture information in remote places in all sorts of ways. Personally I find this forum fascinating and grateful to the contributors..

[Gray-Wolf]

How is posting the latest data 'dishing out the same old drivel'? We can make of it what we like?

I kinda feel that there are two things occurring at once here Pete?

I think the first is that the Arctic ice is reducing at an alarming rate and some folk would wish not to be reminded of this fact.

I think the second is that whenever 'ice loss' gets a mention in the news it is always portrayed as the 'Canary in the coal mine as far as AGW is concerned.

Some folk appear to view climate change as some kind of 'game' that is to be won or lost?

When one of the supposed 'indicators of AGW is showing such frightening changes in line with AGW's prediction' then the folk 'against' AGW feel they are 'losing' (I'm sure the extreme weather in the USA is doing much the same to the 'anti-AGW' crew?) and get a tad 'snipey'.

I'm sure we both know that AGW is no game/conspiracy and we are all the losers should the predictions prove to be correct.

It is a shame that some folk discriminate in this way for there are a few of us that do hold a deep interest in witnessing the changes that are occurring in the Arctic (and trying to understand how these changes are evolving over time and how quickly they are occurring!) and it is hurtful to be belittled for following something we are interested in.

Ho hum, takes all types eh?

EDIT: Hi BFTV!

I believe that this is what is happening at the moment and I'm sure we have an array of Buoys, set up last year to measure changes in the Gyre, that will show us just that? It'll be tomorrow now but I will have a rummage around to find out which group placed the equipment and check the data?

I think we have to understand that anywhere that has had low ice over the past 6 weeks will also be damaging the ice close to it (Barentsz/Kara/East Siberian sea/Baffin).

With Nares in a state of full collapse we will be able to watch how quickly the ice transported into the bay succumbs to the warmth and maybe use that as a guide for other areas within the basin?

I think we are now also seeing the C.A. melting? Oddly it appears to be doing so from the inside out??? Must be those high temps you pointed out taking their toll over the ice.

Edited July 5, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[keithlucky]

Lets get a bit of prospective Since 2007 atmospheric CO2 levels have continued to rise and the Arctic ice sheet has increased in size, satellites are showing the second highest recorded extent of ice in the Bering Sea which is literally choked with ice, while the polar ice cap has grown, increasing in area by twice the size of Texas.

Yet another failed warming alarmist prediction to join all the other non events they have failed to happen.

[Methuselah]

Lets get a bit of prospective Since 2007 atmospheric CO2 levels have continued to rise and the Arctic ice sheet has increased in size, satellites are showing the second highest recorded extent of ice in the Bering Sea which is literally choked with ice, while the polar ice cap has grown, increasing in area by twice the size of Texas.

Yet another failed warming alarmist prediction to join all the other non events they have failed to happen.

What prediction was that, then?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Keith, you need to stop just cutting and pasting things.

That's stuff is clearly from a few months ago. We're currently running below 2007 on extent, thickness and area. There is no ice bridge across the Bering strait and hasn't been since March, in fact, the Bering sea and strait are practically ice free.

Edited July 5, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[keithlucky]

Example This article appeared in National Geographic News in December 2007.

An already relentless melting of the Arctic greatly accelerated this summer—a sign that some scientists worry could mean global warming has passed an ominous tipping point.

One scientist even speculated that summer sea ice could be gone in five years.

Greenland’s ice sheet melted nearly 19 billion tons more than the previous high mark, and the volume of Arctic sea ice at summer’s end was half what it was just four years ago, according to new NASA satellite data obtained by the Associated Press (AP).

“The Arctic is screaming,†said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the government’s snow and ice data center in Boulder, Colorado.

2012

Just last year two top scientists surprised their colleagues by projecting that the Arctic sea ice was melting so rapidly that it could disappear entirely by the summer of 2040.

This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.â€The point is all the doom and scaremongering Have not and will not happen.

Edited July 5, 2012 by keithlucky

[Methuselah]

Well, whatever our respective bias, we'll know, at the end of summer 2012...

[Devonian]

Lets get a bit of prospective Since 2007 atmospheric CO2 levels have continued to rise and the Arctic ice sheet has increased in size, satellites are showing the second highest recorded extent of ice in the Bering Sea which is literally choked with ice, while the polar ice cap has grown, increasing in area by twice the size of Texas.

Yet another failed warming alarmist prediction to join all the other non events they have failed to happen.

Keith, if you're going to post cut and pastes will you PLEASE provide the link.

Most of your post came from this blog. Objective isn't the word I'd use for it, indeed it's overtly political - science it isn't.

Edited July 5, 2012 by Devonian

[stewfox]

Only those which have participants who interpret no comment as having greater meaning than just, no comment.

To be fair BFTV excellent updates has reduced this year the mindless banter . Previous years every day the new IJIS reading led to some bias commentry.

Anyway I can see ice reduction 3-4th July slowing down with an alarming speed, a early re freeze ??

Edited July 5, 2012 by stewfox

[stewfox]

Well, whatever our respective bias, we'll know, at the end of summer 2012...

My concern is the Polar bears by end of summer 2012 if we have 10 sq metres left what do we do ???

[Devonian]

Example This article appeared in National Geographic News in December 2007.

An already relentless melting of the Arctic greatly accelerated this summer—a sign that some scientists worry could mean global warming has passed an ominous tipping point.

One scientist even speculated that summer sea ice could be gone in five years.

Greenland’s ice sheet melted nearly 19 billion tons more than the previous high mark, and the volume of Arctic sea ice at summer’s end was half what it was just four years ago, according to new NASA satellite data obtained by the Associated Press (AP).

“The Arctic is screaming,†said Mark Serreze, senior scientist at the government’s snow and ice data center in Boulder, Colorado.

2012

Just last year two top scientists surprised their colleagues by projecting that the Arctic sea ice was melting so rapidly that it could disappear entirely by the summer of 2040.

This week, after reviewing his own new data, NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.â€The point is all the doom and scaremongering Have not and will not happen.

And the above is from the same blog - tedious.

Edit: actually, it's the same post.....

Edited July 5, 2012 by Devonian