Arctic Ice Discussion (The Melt)

[Gray-Wolf]

Modis shows Nares ice bridge on the crumble;

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/imagery/single.cgi?image=crefl2_143.A2012179144500-2012179145000.250m.jpg

No crack on the 10a.m. image and now a large crack developing on the Canadian side of the bridge. With the high temps over the next few days we should see a rapid collapse up to the novel crack (just before Lincoln) and ship out there after.

Might be worth watching the main NW Passage channels over the next 5 days?

[BornFromTheVoid]

A large chunk has come off from Nares, with a lot of open cracks along the edge of the ice

http://rapidfire.sci.gsfc.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r03c02.2012181.terra

[Gray-Wolf]

A large chunk has come off from Nares, with a lot of open cracks along the edge of the ice

http://rapidfire.sci...2.2012181.terra

Folk need to remember that this is only a thin skim of ice over a deep channel. The berg that calved from Petermann was 200ft thick and had no problems with bottoming out in the channel as it moved on into Baffin.

Provisional figures on IJIS seem pretty high for the day? Is the warm weather already torching areas of the basin?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Folk need to remember that this is only a thin skim of ice over a deep channel. The berg that calved from Petermann was 200ft thick and had no problems with bottoming out in the channel as it moved on into Baffin.

Provisional figures on IJIS seem pretty high for the day? Is the warm weather already torching areas of the basin?

Very mild conditions on the Canadian side of the Arctic, uppers widely over 5C. Looks like continuing for the next week at least, as well as varying between a weak +ve dipole and a -ve AO, so no shortage of high pressure and likely clear skies.

[BornFromTheVoid]

As of June 30th, SIE is at 2nd lowest on record. Here's the June graph, a final update on that

[BornFromTheVoid]

No doubt about it now, the Nares strait is giving way. On the animation below, you can see that not only is the front breaking apart, but many cracks are now spreading through the ice and the entire bridge had moved west by a few km in the last 24 hours.

Back to lowest on record on CT also, up to day 180 (June 28th)

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm actually getting pretty concerned about things now BFTV?

When you consider we've only just entered the month of 'mega melt' the amount of broken/low concentration ice in the basin, coupled with the high temp/clear sky forecasts, make me wonder just how low we can go this season?

If my ideas about the way the heat absorbed by the open water can impact the remaining thin ice then I can honestly see another 07' in the offing.

The difference this year is we have no more 'perennial ice' to fend off/slow the onslaught.

C.T. now shows the only 'Deep purple' in the basin from Pole to Fram (some over by Siberia but this is in a high melt area so I feel will naturally succumb?) so any Di-pole puts the majority of thick ice left in the basin at the mercy of the the Trans Arctic drift and winds.

If ,by seasons end , we are left with only bits of F.Y. ice then I think the notion of low ice impacting N. Hemisphere weather will be far easier to link and see occurring (esp. at solar max?).

All in all I'm a tad scared at the prospects and esp. them happening so quickly?

If there is any 'upside' it will be the silencing of the W.U.W.T. type deniers.

EDIT: Recovery!

http://lance-modis.e...190000.250m.jpg

Check out the growth in ice 'extent' (15% or 30%) from 3 days ago to today on the ice front at the southern end of Nares!!!

Maybe I should tell Mr Watts?

If each pixel is 250m then thats sq kms of growth and in the 'melt out' time of year too!!!

Edited July 1, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[BornFromTheVoid]

Total June sea ice extent loss from 79-12

[loafer]

For balance, Arctic and Antarctic anomaly charts;

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/n_plot_hires.png

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/s_plot_hires.png

[Gray-Wolf]

For balance, Arctic and Antarctic anomaly charts;

http://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index/images/n_plot_hires.png

http://nsidc.org/dat..._plot_hires.png

I'm not quite understanding the relavence of this?

Are you saying that the seasonal sea ice around Antarctica is a model for the soon to be 'seasonal' sea ice of the Arctic?

I'd say it would be a lot harder to get the Arctic into a seasonal Ocean as it covers the geographic pole unlike the Southern oceans which surrounds a vast continent which covers the Geographic pole???

Edited July 2, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[Methuselah]

Total June sea ice extent loss from 79-12

I wonder how long it'll be before WUWT invert that chart and present it as 'evidence'?

[Gray-Wolf]

I'd be careful; Pete or you might find yourself on the list of folk they'd like to see publicly flogged!

[4wd]

I wonder how long it'll be before WUWT invert that chart and present it as 'evidence'?

I thought WUWT highlighted curious inversions on the other side actually

I'd be careful; Pete or you might find yourself on the list of folk they'd like to see publicly flogged!

I think it's the AGW fanatics want to imprison all dissenters.

Since you are taking the thread off-topic into tribal nonsense.

[4wd]

Here's a un-death-spiral extent chart.

Gentle un-dramatic and un-tipping-pointed un-accelerating decline through the entire properly recorded period.

Does this show an inverted correlation with CO2? Or something else?

Edited July 2, 2012 by 4wd

[BornFromTheVoid]

Actually 4wd, I think they all show something of an accelerating decline, as as the actual extent has been below the trend line for most of the time since 2005.

A few figures to throw into the debate... the mean minimum of the last 5 years is 30% lower than the 79-00 average minimum, 33% lower than the 80s average minimum and 34% lower than the average minimum of the first 5 years on record.

Last year then, was 33% lower than the 79-00 minimum, 35% lower than the 80s average minimum and 37% lower than the average minimum for the first 5 years on record.

[Cheshire Freeze]

I'm actually getting pretty concerned about things now BFTV?

When you consider we've only just entered the month of 'mega melt' the amount of broken/low concentration ice in the basin, coupled with the high temp/clear sky forecasts, make me wonder just how low we can go this season?

If my ideas about the way the heat absorbed by the open water can impact the remaining thin ice then I can honestly see another 07' in the offing.

The difference this year is we have no more 'perennial ice' to fend off/slow the onslaught.

C.T. now shows the only 'Deep purple' in the basin from Pole to Fram (some over by Siberia but this is in a high melt area so I feel will naturally succumb?) so any Di-pole puts the majority of thick ice left in the basin at the mercy of the the Trans Arctic drift and winds.

If ,by seasons end , we are left with only bits of F.Y. ice then I think the notion of low ice impacting N. Hemisphere weather will be far easier to link and see occurring (esp. at solar max?).

All in all I'm a tad scared at the prospects and esp. them happening so quickly?

If there is any 'upside' it will be the silencing of the W.U.W.T. type deniers.

EDIT: Recovery!

http://lance-modis.e...190000.250m.jpg

Check out the growth in ice 'extent' (15% or 30%) from 3 days ago to today on the ice front at the southern end of Nares!!!

Maybe I should tell Mr Watts?

If each pixel is 250m then thats sq kms of growth and in the 'melt out' time of year too!!!

And what are your thoughts on the potential consequences of all of this on NH atmospheric circulation?

I wouldn't worry about sea ice decimation, it'll be reinstated pretty quickly once the impending ice age is triggered; it can't be long now.....I have no evidence to back this assertion up and is merely conjecture.....but then again a lot of what I've just read in this thread is.....

For sure, an intriguing thread but one which is limited by the hard facts that are evident to us....and they would seem to suggest that Arctic ice is reducing at a dramatic rate. Where we go from here, who knows? However, my money wouldn't be on a sustained NH warm up, infact quite the opposite. In my very honest opinion, variables are so complexly interlinked that the eventuality will be for the atmosphere to retaliate to the warming occurring over the Arctic in a way that we at present cannot understand.

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi C.C.!

I too would hope that it is all 'wheels within wheels' and that mother N. has some big negative feedbacks that would normalise temps up north to allow the re-growth , and thickening, of the ice cover there?

We all know U.S.A. is having some heat issues a.t.m. but just look at these stats from Resolute;

June 28th: Resolute finished 14.5C this broke the old daily high temp record of 13.5C set in 1996.

June 29th. Resolute finished 12.4C this broke the old daily high temp record of 11.7C set in 1998.

June 30th. Resolute finished 18.2C this broke the old daily high temp record of 13.9C set in 1951.

July 1st. Resolute finished 18.8C this broke the old daily high temp record of 15.0C set in 2011

July 2nd. Resolute finished 20.5C this broke the old daily high temp record of 17.4C set in 2010

apparently they've only has 1 hr or so in the past 5 days that was below 10c! The models did not have a proper handle on the temps as it should have been tempered by snow cover/sea ice off shore but , in it's absence, this is what we got. most of this heat was moving out over the ice (data compiled by C.Biscan over on Neven's 'sea ice' blog from; http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-27_metric_e.html ).

The whole of the Canadian Archipelago has a 'Greek Islands in spring' look to them for the coming week which will fatally wound the ice in the N.W. Passage there.

I struggle with the huge amounts of energy now being absorbed across the basin at the moment. When I first saw the impacts of the way the heat was lost over late autumn/early winter I was equally shocked. it knocks man made climate influence out of the park. When you look at sea areas that 10 years ago would have been ice sealed, and have a -30 2m temp, being 'open water' and leaking heat into the full depth of the atmosphere you get some idea!

Imagine if those temp anoms were to be found across our shores in late Oct? instead of it being 7c it was 37c for 6 to 8 weeks? Would folk sit up and take notice??? Well we have been seeing this in parts of Barentsz and Kara for over 10 years now and , more recently, now other sea areas in the basin are following suit.

How can we have such a huge difference ,over such a long time period, without it messing with the 'normal' workings of the atmosphere at that time?

When we look at what was left in the ocean at the end of the 07' melt we find it was predominantly perennial ice (and paleocryistic ice). This year we only have ice 4yrs old and under to fend off the end of season 'warm ocean' onslaught. What we do not need right now is an ocean under full sun (remember the sunlight is still warming the ocean through 1m of ice!) but it looks like this is what we have for the next few weeks at least.

07' dropped ice area, from it's previous average, by 2 million sq km. Do that to the new average an we go below the 1 million 'seasonal pack' threshold. I'm not saying that this is what is in store but then no one thought 07' was on the way did they?

And what then for the atmosphere above? I'm sure it would take a few years for anything 'new' to settle into it's pattern (as we have seen with the pressure patterns driven by the low ice levels across Barentsz/Kara) but I'm sure it would lead to some novel weather here straight away.

To me Autumn is the time that the polar jet sweeps over ,and to the south , of us and we get our first cold P.M. air masses invading. What would autumn be like without P.M. air masses (well P.M. modified by the warm water they've sat over?)? What would it do to our temps (esp. night time)?

To my simple mind the loss of 'deep cold' over the basin in Autumn must instantly change our weather patterns merely because of the temp. changes?

[picog]

Getting mushy on one of the NP webcams. I wonder what came to visit — see the footprints?

[Gray-Wolf]

Getting mushy on one of the NP webcams. I wonder what came to visit — see the footprints?

Not all temp driven though as the cam has fare scooted off towards Fram since deployed?

Looks to have webbed feet whatever popped down for a look at the cam?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Not sure if this has been posted http://www.arcus.org...tlook/2012/june

It's basically the September Arctic sea ice outlook, based on the September minimum extent as guessed, modelled and however else by numerous experts, and even with a contribution from WUWT based on a poll they held. The median forecast value is currently at 4,400,000km2 (2nd lowest on record).

While we don't have a whole lot of time now, perhaps for the August update we could arrange a poll on netweather and see if that could contribute to the outlook?

I might set up a thread with a poll for the sea ice minimum, like on the site linked above, we could update the poll each month to get an idea of the changing opinions during the melt season?

EDIT: If I set up the poll, is everyone ok with using the IJIS extent data? Or any other suggestions?

Edited July 3, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[stewfox]

Not sure if this has been posted http://www.arcus.org...tlook/2012/june

It's basically the September Arctic sea ice outlook, based on the September minimum extent as guessed, modelled and however else by numerous experts, and even with a contribution from WUWT based on a poll they held. The median forecast value is currently at 4,400,000km2 (2nd lowest on record).

While we don't have a whole lot of time now, perhaps for the August update we could arrange a poll on netweather and see if that could contribute to the outlook?

I might set up a thread with a poll for the sea ice minimum, like on the site linked above, we could update the poll each month to get an idea of the changing opinions during the melt season?

EDIT: If I set up the poll, is everyone ok with using the IJIS extent data? Or any other suggestions?

Haven't seen that posted this year. Great idea, I would go with IJIS , it has its limitations but at least its been posted on artic thread almost daily for many years.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Lowest on record still on CT, now by about 250,000km2.

However off it seems, there are a few yearly minimums that we could pass within the next 10 days or so.

Current sea ice area is 6.31 million, here are some yearly minima that are quite close

1979 - 5.31

1980 - 5.51

1983 - 5.39

1986 - 5.38

Something to watch for anyway.

[knocker]

I don't know whether it's of interest but the station plots for the Arctic ant 00z. Quite warm.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The first update for July, up to the 4th.

[Gray-Wolf]

We are approaching the time that 07' has generally 'ousted' other challengers over recent years. Somehow I do not think this can happen this year? With temps up 20c forecast to sweep over the Siberian side of the Basin and high temps already on the Alaskan/Canadian side of the Basin I would imagine us now starting to see that thin ice we measured there in spring to now begin disappearing quite fast?.

We still also have bits and bats of 'easy ice' to disappear as well?

All in all it should get quite colourful on the Bremen/C.T. concentration maps in the coming weeks?

I think we may also see another 'spurt' to wards Fram from the older ice.

To me this is the most worrisome part of this season. You could predict the loss of the thin ice due to past years ablation rates, in -situ, but you could not predict the weather patterns and how this would impact the oldest ice?

The one 'straw' to clutch at was the thickening of this ice over the past 2 years and now a fair percentage has been lost to the Atlantic with goodness knows how much more set to take that trip.

The lack of dissent over the past 3 weeks also drives home how bad things are now looking. I think it will be 're-freeze' before we hear any mutters of 'cool down' or 'recovery'?