Arctic Ice Discussion (The Melt)

[Methuselah]

A wee note to all: please refrain from any attempts to belittle others. Thanks!

[BornFromTheVoid]

I was looking up when the successor to the AMSR-E sensor would be up an running, and it seems it's already been launched (May 18th) aboard the GCOM-W1 satellite in May. They've had some successful tests and are just putting the satellite into it's correct orbit on the "A-Train" constellation orbit, which will take about 45 days from May May 19th, they will also need about 3 months for calibration work and extra testing before continuous data is released.

It seems likely we'll have this high resolution sea ice data then for the beginning of the re-freeze, and perhaps the end of the melt season if we're lucky.

http://www.jaxa.jp/press/2012/05/20120519_shizuku_e.html

[Gray-Wolf]

Returning to the 'thin ice' all along the NE Passage. Would escalating methane seepage be enough to mix the water column, in the shelf area, leading to this poor ice formation?

The end of 2010/11 winter saw ice three times as thick there (1.5m) so there must be some reasonable explaination as to why we have seen such a drastic reduction over such a short span of time?

Again we are seeing an area once famed for it's ice production seemingly turning into an ice graveyard over a short (15yrs?) time period. With such young ice in the 'babies arm' (south beaufort over to east siberian sea) and the prospect of warm water at the end of it's journey we could find even less ice in the central basin this year with the ice min showing us where we will find ice come sept from now on (along the North coast of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago), The only problem with this seems to be that this is the very area we see ice flushed into Fram from (and out of Nares). The thin ice melts out in situ and the older, thicker ice, is flushed out through Fram.

With this new order established it is easy to see than a high transport winter could cost us the most resilient ice in the basin even before the melt season begins in earnest! To me I think it possible that this year could well prove to as big a shocker as 07' was. With some 'pattern matchers' using 07' as an anologue for our summer to come are we in for the 'perfect storm' scenario across the Arctic?

[BornFromTheVoid]

Returning to the 'thin ice' all along the NE Passage. Would escalating methane seepage be enough to mix the water column, in the shelf area, leading to this poor ice formation?

The end of 2010/11 winter saw ice three times as thick there (1.5m) so there must be some reasonable explaination as to why we have seen such a drastic reduction over such a short span of time?

I doubt there is enough methane being released yet to upset the ice formation. I'd say the most likely explanation is simply the -ve dipole anomaly during the winter, causing extra ice advection away from the Eurasian coastline. You can get an idea of it from the wind vector anomaly from Dec-Mar.

Again we are seeing an area once famed for it's ice production seemingly turning into an ice graveyard over a short (15yrs?) time period. With such young ice in the 'babies arm' (south beaufort over to east siberian sea) and the prospect of warm water at the end of it's journey we could find even less ice in the central basin this year with the ice min showing us where we will find ice come sept from now on (along the North coast of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago), The only problem with this seems to be that this is the very area we see ice flushed into Fram from (and out of Nares). The thin ice melts out in situ and the older, thicker ice, is flushed out through Fram.

With this new order established it is easy to see than a high transport winter could cost us the most resilient ice in the basin even before the melt season begins in earnest! To me I think it possible that this year could well prove to as big a shocker as 07' was. With some 'pattern matchers' using 07' as an anologue for our summer to come are we in for the 'perfect storm' scenario across the Arctic?

I agree with much of this, though I wouldn't be so sure about how this summer will turn out. While the +ve dipole has been very prevalent this melt season so far, rarely do years that have a strong dipole in Apr and May maintain it during the whole summer. 2007 was close to average in May and June before becoming stronger in July, August and September.

If this year did maintain such a strong dipole during the summer, after such a strong start, it would be very unusual and would add to the evidence that the ice loss is acting as a feedback and promoting the dipole pattern.

The closest analogue to this year was 1990, which had a strong +ve dipole in April and May, but then went strongly -ve in June and July. Similar occurred in 91 and 93, both of which had negative Junes and Augusts.

The one caveat would be 1968, that started off quite strong and went on to produce the strongest melt season +ve dipole on record, but even that ended up weaker than average by September, when the correlation between with sea ice extent is at its highest.

[cooling climate]

Look at the pressure pattern CC, it is a clear +ve dipole.

If you're having difficulty understanding, here is the pressure pattern from November to the end of March with some annotations.

The temperature anomaly backs this up

As does the wind vector anomaly. Note the added northerly winds through the Bering Strait and anomalous southerlies in the Barents/Kara sea.

And because it is a dipole "anomaly", here clearly shows the negative anomaly pattern.

All of the above, to me at least, clearly shows why the sea ice anomalies into spring were the way they were.

Here is the pattern since April first, where you will see that it has been largely reversed.

See we have a classical +ve dipole pattern now, with low pressure to the Eurasian side and high pressure to the Canadian side.

The wind vector chart shows the extra wind forcing through the Fram strait, which is why the dipole drives extra sea ice export.

Here is the anomaly

Low pressure is being maintained to the south of Alaska, which is causing north easterly winds in the Bering sea. As the Arctic, and more specifically Alaska has been warming up, the ice in the Bering sea has been blown south and replaced with open water as it's not cold enough to refreeze and temperatures have returned close to average. You can see that on any ice concentration/area/extent or visual satellite image. Here's the temperature anomaly chart anyway, showing temps close to average since April over the Bering sea, a reduction in the positive anomalies over the Barents and Kara (still +ve due to the open water) -ve anomalies in the Greenland and North Sea, due to the strong northerlies here.

SSTs are very low around the Bering sea due to the northerly winds all winter and spring and because of the -ve PDO, so despite the ice being blown southward, and combined with the fact that there was an extra 400,000km2 of ice there, it's taking longer than normal to melt out (current anomaly is about +90,000km2).

Hope that helps CC. Any other questions, then feel free to ask and I'll do my best. On summer hols now so for the most part I have plenty of time.

My previous post which shows an update from NSIDC for may clearly shows that the

positive dipole was not present in May. Your post that I have quoted does not help me

or anyone else for that matter in fact to the less knowledgable it is quite misleading and

should have been removed.

[Gray-Wolf]

I suppose this is the nub BFTV.

Have we , or have we not, entered a new and novel phase in the Arctic?

If we have gone beyond all other 'natural' variations in the Arctic then we can expect new and novel climatic influences arising from there. I believe the evidence points us toward this conclusion. The new 'faux high' that arises at summers end as the heat of the season escapes back into the atmosphere (ever larger amounts of energy, year on year, bled back into the climate system, energy that was once bounced straight back into space by a health ice/snow cover) before refreeze can begin. Surely this new forcing does just that and 'forces' novel changes to the circulation in the northern hemisphere?

Were this a 'one off event' then our climate system would soak it up surely? But an occurrence growing in size year on year? An occurrence that feeds upon itself leading to an ever increasing cycle of Arctic change?

We are seeing ice levels over winter (inside the basin) now reducing.

Areas which once held perennial ice and helped keep up ice levels across the basin are now active in the destruction of summer ice cover (as we will see this year with Kara and Barentsz!)

Sadly, BFTV, I cannot accept parallels with past 'healthy' arctic synoptics, I do not believe they can be relied upon as a guide to the way our new arctic will act this year? I do not think that you can exert influence upon the northern hemisphere's circulation, for a part of the year, and then expect things to instantly settle down once that forcing abates?

Let us also not forget that we are still supposed to be in the grips of 'cooling' for the coming years...... good job eh?

[BornFromTheVoid]

My previous post which shows an update from NSIDC for may clearly shows that the

positive dipole was not present in May. Your post that I have quoted does not help me

or anyone else for that matter in fact to the less knowledgable it is quite misleading and

should have been removed.

The positive dipole is represented by high pressure across the Canadian side of the Arctic and low pressure across the Eurasian side of the Arctic, which is exactly what was shown on the NSIDC chart you showed. Here it is marked for you

I made an effort to demonstrate why the ice pattern was the way it was with charts and evidence. You just dismissed it, used nothing to back yourself up with and then threw out a few more of your derogatory comments, which you've had numerous posts deleted for in recent months. I really don't see how you could be surprised?

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm sad to see you taking flak BFTV.

When I'm projecting the hurt I see coming then I can see why folk would choose to ignore/deride such but when you do such a fine job of bringing us the facts, to date, it is unfair to have you treated so.

Try and remember that most folk only view this thread (for info) and take no part in it.

I'm sure most all of those 'lurkers' value your input!

[BornFromTheVoid]

I suppose this is the nub BFTV.

Have we , or have we not, entered a new and novel phase in the Arctic?

If we have gone beyond all other 'natural' variations in the Arctic then we can expect new and novel climatic influences arising from there. I believe the evidence points us toward this conclusion. The new 'faux high' that arises at summers end as the heat of the season escapes back into the atmosphere (ever larger amounts of energy, year on year, bled back into the climate system, energy that was once bounced straight back into space by a health ice/snow cover) before refreeze can begin. Surely this new forcing does just that and 'forces' novel changes to the circulation in the northern hemisphere?

Were this a 'one off event' then our climate system would soak it up surely? But an occurrence growing in size year on year? An occurrence that feeds upon itself leading to an ever increasing cycle of Arctic change?

We are seeing ice levels over winter (inside the basin) now reducing.

Areas which once held perennial ice and helped keep up ice levels across the basin are now active in the destruction of summer ice cover (as we will see this year with Kara and Barentsz!)

Sadly, BFTV, I cannot accept parallels with past 'healthy' arctic synoptics, I do not believe they can be relied upon as a guide to the way our new arctic will act this year? I do not think that you can exert influence upon the northern hemisphere's circulation, for a part of the year, and then expect things to instantly settle down once that forcing abates?

Let us also not forget that we are still supposed to be in the grips of 'cooling' for the coming years...... good job eh?

We have entered a new phase, that's for sure, but whether anthropogenic forcing is currently enough to drive the Arctic towards a seasonal state within the next few years remains to be seen. Whilst it is looking likely that the up tick in the positive dipole since 2006 is likely related to the rapid sea ice reduction, it still isn't quite exceptionally strong enough or a long enough stretch to confirm that. With my dissertation, I found that the 50s had nearly as strong a dipole as the 00s, which makes me believe we need a little more time to confirm that the current pattern is related to a feedback from the ice loss. As we saw with the strong -ve dipole and early minimum last September, we can't discount natural variation over-riding the ice-ocean-atmosphere feedback.

Don't get me wrong, I think the sea ice is in a bad way and I think there's a small chance of going seasonal before the end of the decade even, but most likely around 2025 imo. I just think that other things can over-ride the effect of sea ice loss. If whatever natural factors caused -ve dipole patterns in the past kicked into gear and slowed ice export, we may even see a slow down in ice loss for a number of years. But this stuff is moving more towards the realm of personal opinion and without clear evidence, it's unlikely either of us will change our opinions on this!

Cheers for your positive comments and encouragement though GW!

[songster]

Returning to the 'thin ice' all along the NE Passage. Would escalating methane seepage be enough to mix the water column, in the shelf area, leading to this poor ice formation?

No.

East Siberian methane releases are estimated at ~0.5 Mt per year (= 0.5 x 10^9 kg). Methane's density as a gas is 0.66 kg/m^3, so that comes out to be 0.75 x 10^9 m^3 of methane released per year. The area of the East Siberian shelf is >2 million km^2 (=2 x 10^12 m^2). Divide one by the other, and you have 375 cubic centimetres of methane released per square metre per year. That's one bubble with a diameter of ~1.5 cm per day per square metre. That one bubble per day is supposed to mix the entire water column of 50-100m depth?

It's not even within four or five orders of magnitude!

[cooling climate]

IJIS showing a downturn in ice the last couple of days but without

a proper + dipole in place this may be only temporay.

Hudson bay still holding up well compared to recent years.

Starting to feel a little more confident on my 5 million min this year.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Take the losses on IJIS over the last 2 days with a pinch of salt CC, they tend to get adjusted a lot.

I wouldn't quite say Hudson Bay is holding up well as it's still below average, but conditions do look like improving over the next 5 days, so provided the ice isn't thinner than we think, it should move close to average.

Also, the +ve dipole that has been in place looks like finally fading over the next 2 days, with more of a +ve AO type pattern taking hold, which is good for maintaining the cold over the Arctic Basin and keeping the sun off the ice with increased cloud cover.

Here is an updated graph, based on a blend of the NASA team algorithm based sea ice extent and the IJIS data up to June 8th

And for a closer look at the first 10 days of June (with this years data up to the 8th)

Here the years since 2007 are thicker and in progressively darker shades of grey, with 2012 in black. The 2 years caught in between the greys are 2006 & 2005

[BornFromTheVoid]

With an extra day in hand now, we can see that the losses shown on the IJIS page are still quite large, even after their usual adjustments, with a loss over ~190,000km2 from the 8th-9th.

Looking at both the MODIS Arctic mosaic and the IJIS concentration charts, we can see that the large areas of blue ice on mosaic are being shown as low concentration on the IJIS chart (an issue songster mentioned previously), so the large drops may be something of an illusion and perhaps a rapid slow down may be on the cards soon, as happened when the blue ice in the Laptev sea was mistaken for low concentration last week on cryosphere today?

Here's a chart, similar to the one I posted yesterday, but showing the extent for the month of June, which I think is better for comparison with other years and showing the relative rate of change, rather than showing the whole 12 months.

I might update this every few days

[songster]

I don't think the "blue ice" phenomenon should affect IJIS unless it's being seen as under 15% concentration.

Looking at the images here, IJIS counts everything other than open water when calculating extent - you can see the East Siberian and Leptev seas are still counting as fully ice-covered except for the polynyas north and west of the New Siberian Islands (which are clearly visible on the MODIS mosaic). So it looks to me as though the losses are real. Looking at the high-res images, you can clearly see the blue ice beginning to melt through to open water in any case - the whole region is peppered with darker blue dots.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r05c04.2012162.aqua.1km

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/imagery/subsets/?subset=Arctic_r04c05.2012163.terra

[Gray-Wolf]

Ever the hopeful BFTV!

With a goodly proportion of springs 'high' extent outside the basin and inside the basin up to a million below I would expect a steady decline from now on?

As for a 'seasonal pack' I think we will run into the first instance the next 'perfect storm' synoptics the basin sees. If 'average' summers lead to top 4 low extents then what will the type of summer that brought us 07' bring now?

The more dark water earlier in the season the more ice gets impacted by the warming that can occur. We had a lot of 'dark water' at the start of melt season (sea areas not holding ice where it would once hold perrenial ice) and this will play out over the summer by allowing even more melt out of the remaining pack.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I don't think the "blue ice" phenomenon should affect IJIS unless it's being seen as under 15% concentration.

Looking at the images here, IJIS counts everything other than open water when calculating extent - you can see the East Siberian and Leptev seas are still counting as fully ice-covered except for the polynyas north and west of the New Siberian Islands (which are clearly visible on the MODIS mosaic). So it looks to me as though the losses are real. Looking at the high-res images, you can clearly see the blue ice beginning to melt through to open water in any case - the whole region is peppered with darker blue dots.

http://www.ijis.iarc...itor.cgi?lang=e

http://lance-modis.e...012162.aqua.1km

http://lance-modis.e...5.2012163.terra

Just looking at the changes on the IJIS concentration charts from the 8th to the 10th, I'm not really seeing any large areas of loss that would explain the drops in extent we've seen. The biggest changes seem to be down to the blue ice areas showing up as very low concentration, when their still, as far as I can see, almost 100%.

As for the holes in the blue ice, I'm not really seeing much? The area in the first modis image you linked was an area that's been of lower concentration area for over a week, that recently turned blue. As far as I can see, the blue lanfast ice is still close too 100% concentration

This is the same area from 8 days ago http://lance-modis.e...012155.aqua.1km

The large losses are also on the cryosphere today (now lowest on record again, with ~270,000km2 lost yesterday). One example is the East Siberian sea, which has shown large losses in the last 5 days, which appear on the animation to be entirely from lowering concentration in the blue ice area.

http://arctic.atmos....ic.color.0.html

EDIT: Just to be clear, I do think we are seeing some quick ice melt in parts, such as the Beaufort and Kara seas. I just think the incredibly large losses shown the last few days are in part due to the blue ice issue again.

Edited June 11, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[BornFromTheVoid]

The large drops continue on the IJIS, with the last reliable daily loss from the 9th-10th being about 90,000km2, with the average for June at 47,000km2/day. So for extent, currently 4th lowest on record, about 270,000km2 behind 2010 (lowest on record)

Meanwhile, on Cryosphere Today, we are now lowest on record for the time of year by 270,000km2, with the last 4 days (up to day 161, June 9th) averaging a loss of ~200,000km2/day, making this the earliest time on record to get below 9 million km2. Leaving aside the blue ice issue, there have been large losses in the Kara, Greenland, Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian seas, the Arctic basin and Hudson Bay.

The Kara sea is currently lowest on record for the time of year, and conditions look like remaining very mild over the coming days, with uppers of between 0 and 15C stretching from the Kara sea coastline across the the Beaufort sea for at least the next 3 days.

[Gray-Wolf]

With the overflight data on the NE Passage putting the ice average at 50cm at winters end i think the recent losses (and rate of losses?) there are set to continue. We have NSIDC telling us the Beaufort is only averaging a 1m thickness at winters end (and breakup there already) and now Hudson (a little late?) looking set to let go i'm worried that the recent rate of loss is set to continue.

If we then look to a L.P. system setting up over the central basin is this not going to disrupt the thin ice further (with any 'over-wash' hastening melt out)?

I keep hearing the usual suspects telling us about the ice being 'thicker' in the basin this year? The only area of 'thickness' is the north shore of Greenland and this seems to be destined for Fram over the season.

This appears (to me) to be the future model for the basin with the only thickness arising from thin ice over-riding on the north shore of Greenland/north Shore of the Canadian Archipelago.....both areas actively exporting to Fram. Whilst 3m plus ice will not readily melt out in the basin it sure will in the Atlantic!

The rest of the basin all looks prone to melt out esp. if we see large expanses of open (dark ) water over the high summer (with top melt and ocean warming at it's greatest). if we drop low at this time of year then all we do is increase the ocean heating leading to the basal melt of remaining ice.

A seasonal basin during a 'perfect storm ' year is one thing. To see us setting the scene for 'average years' to bring us seasonal ice is another!

[BornFromTheVoid]

I think it's even becoming increasingly difficult for me to see many positives or hope for recovery any time soon. The sea ice does appear to be in a very delicate state for now.

Anyway, the impressive/concerning losses continue. On Cryosphere Today the area is still currently lowest on record, now by 420,000km2 compared to the next lowest, 2010.

For extent, the IJIS data shows the large losses continuing also, with 100,000km2 lost between the 10th and 11th. This leaves 2012 at 3rd lowest for the time of year, behind 2011 and 2010.

[BornFromTheVoid]

I emailed the NASA EOSDIS last week asking about the cause of the blue ice, they forwarded the question to the NSIDC and I got a response today. Tis pretty straight forward and kinda what I was expecting (even if slightly too simplified).

You are correct. For the most part the cause of the blue sea ice in the Laptev, East Siberian and now the Chukchi sea is most likely melt ponds. Water absorbs more red wavelengths than blue wavelengths of light causing the melt pond to appear blue.

Please let me know if you have further questions.

Best regards,

Molly

NSIDC User Services

nsidc@nsidc.org

Edited June 13, 2012 by BornFromTheVoid

[knocker]

8. June 2012: North-East Passage soon free from ice again? Winter measurements show thin sea ice in the Laptev Sea, pointing to early and large scale summer melt

Bremerhaven, 8 June 2012, The North-East Passage, the sea route along the North coast of Russia, is expected to be free of ice early again this summer. The forecast was made by sea ice physicists of the Alfred Wegener Institute for Polar and Marine Research in the Helmholtz Association based on a series of measurement flights over the Laptev Sea, a marginal sea of the Arctic Ocean. Amongs experts the shelf sea is known as an “ice factory†of Arctic sea ice. At the end of last winter the researchers discovered large areas of thin ice not being thick enough to withstand the summer melt.

"These results were a great surprise to us“, says expedition member Dr. Thomas Krumpen. In previous measurements in the winter of 2007/2008 the ice in the same area had been up to one metre thicker. In his opinion these clear differences are primarily attributable to the wind: “It behaves differently from year to year. If, as last winter, the wind blows from the mainland to the sea, it pushes the pack ice from the Laptev Sea towards the North. Open water areas, so-called polynyas, develop in this way before the coast. Their surface water naturally cools very quickly at an air temperature of minus 40 degrees. New thin ice forms and is then immediately swept away again by the wind. In view of this cycle, differently sized areas of thin ice then develop on the Laptev Sea depending on wind strength and continuity“, explains Thomas Krumpen. (See info charts)

http://www.awi.de/en/news/press_releases/detail/item/will_the_northern_sea_route_be_icefree_early/?cHash=26c17842ee8bb597cf456325b046674a

[stewfox]

. This leaves 2012 at 3rd lowest for the time of year, behind 2011 and 2010.

If your an optimist you could call that a slow recovery ?

[4wd]

"These results were a great surprise to us“, says expedition member Dr. Thomas Krumpen. In previous measurements in the winter of 2007/2008 the ice in the same area had been up to one metre thicker. In his opinion these clear differences are primarily attributable to the wind: “It behaves differently from year to year.

Note this.

[BornFromTheVoid]

That's something I mentioned at the top of this page. Just part of the winter/spring wind patterns.

The problem is, we expected the ice on the opposite side of the Arctic to have thickened up as the sea ice drifts across the Arctic, but the early break up and melt along the Beaufort sea and the edge of the Arctic basin shows that, unfortunately, this hasn't happened.

[Gray-Wolf]

The only good news was the Bering Sea ice.

Sadly this was seasonal and is now gone.

As I suggested back in March we should look inside the basin to see the 'real' picture.

Ice age plots show young ice in the central region. Ice overflight measurements show Beaufort with 1m ice at the start of melt season and the NE Passage with as little as 50cm (at the start of melt season). Kara and Barentsz fell 0.7million short of last years winter max (which itself was low!)

At least the optimists had 5 weeks of feeling good about a 'recovery'.... until the realist predictions started to manifest.

All downhill from here.

The only 'unexpected' in the mix is the El-Nino in the offing.......

Edited June 13, 2012 by Gray-Wolf