Model Output Discussion 14th May 2012 Onwards

[Summer Sun]

Looking like a cold start to the new year

What is the point of looking 8 months ahead? A wind up or what?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looking like a cold start to the new year

Nailed on that, given the close timeframe and all

What is the point of looking 8 months ahead? A wind up or what?

It's all in good fun. A bit of eye candy in the extreme that. Uppers approaching -20.....YES PLEASE!

[Milhouse]

It looks like much of next week will be dominated by a fairly unsettled regime with low pressure tracking to the northwest of the UK. However with a run of warm southwesterlies it shouldnt be that cool, except if you manage to catch a shower. For the SE these kind of setups do tend to give mostly dry and warm conditions. Although it all depends on how close that low gets to us next week.

[Downburst]

Well there isn't long now tomorrow is the last day of spring

thanks guys, tomorrow it is then. Not that I need it with Robbies updates on the CFS charts, but a bit of human input on the computer output is valuable.

[A Winter's Tale]

I'm going to use my very basic meteorological knowledge to see what the models are showing:

So far, 2012 has been quite an odd year for weather here in the UK, we saw a very mild January, followed by a cold start to February that was cancelled out by a warm second half, a very warm March followed by a very cold and wet April. The first half of May saw a continuation of the unsettled theme of April, until high pressure brought a fantastic warm spell that really doesn't tell the whole story of what has been a strange month. We've seen high pressure move from being present in the Azores and Siberia, to Scandinavia then Greenland. But what next, what synoptics in the NH can we expect to see during the first month of summer?

Early in the run, we see a different scenario from the weather of the past week or so. It's still summer for parts of the south, although further north we have more in the of cool and cloudy conditions in areas. High pressure here is still situated over Greenland - this was a regular occurance last summer, and has been persistent from April onwards, but surely this can't last into summer? Whatever happens, I'm sure most would want that Greenie High to disapear right now as most of us want more in the way of sunnier and warmer conditions in some shape or form. I'm sure that the tourist and holiday industries aswell as farming wouldn't want to see it continue for much longer either.

Above is the chart for Thursday 1500hrs.

As the GFS Precipitation chart shows, it looks like a wet affair tomorrow for most.

Northern and southern most regions may escape the wet conditions with the heaviest of the precipitation falling over Ireland, the east coast and highlands. I'm sure that the rain will be quite welcome for some farmers and gardners after a very dry few days. The synoptic chart aslo shows some warm air not too far away from the south coast of England and indeed warm air is plentiful over much of Europe.

But as we see here, the jet stream is active over the UK and northerly winds are present just to the north. Note the meandering nature of the track of the jet stream thanks to high pressure up to 1024mb over Greenland.

On Friday, we see contrastic conditions across the UK. The SW is more settled and under upper air of 10C, whereas NE Scotland is cool with northerly winds. Low pressure looks set to be situated around Scandinavia which more or less means cool and unsettled conditions for areas of the UK. High pressure over Greenland helps to assist this. 20C uppers over Spain are present and a change in synoptics could allow for much warmer air for southern areas, but it's a whole different story for Shetland where it's more like winter with -5C uppers.

A cooler day for most on Saturday, especially the further north you are. Low pressure still situated to the east is allowing for cold northerly winds.

This northerly is likely to bring cold temperatures for this time of year in the N and E with temperatures no higher than 8-9C in places. Whereas in the south, a pleasant 18C could be likely.

However, at least it is likely to be dry for most with some rain for the SW, Wales and Ireland.

The synoptic chart also shows 1024mb over Iceland not too far away from the north of Scotland, so some settled albeit cool conditions could be likely.

This chart here shows how high pressure to the north is having an influence on keeping low pressure systems at bay. You can also still see the low pressure over Scandinavia and the Baltics.

Sunday, 1500hrs has rainfall for southern areas in particular as well as lighter and showery precipitation scattered over northern and western parts. 1032 mb over Greenland however means that those warm uppers to the south won't be making an impression for areas of the UK anytime soon.

Monday looks wet for for western and central areas with the far NW and SE perhaps escaping from the rain. Temperatures of 15C widely in the south but only 9C likely over northern Scotland. High pressure still present over Greenland - this would mean that plants will get some rainfall but if this pattern were to continue I think most may begin to get quite frustrated.

Next Tuesday, we have SWly winds having an influence but hardly prolonged or special. And still, it's wet picture.

Now we are getting into the realms of FI, so reliability decreases.This chart would see spells of rain for quite a few areas, especially the west. 10C, uppers aren't too far away from the SE but likewise, cool uppers are still present at the far north thanks to a Greenland high.

Well into FI, and still 1024mb are over Greeland and a cool and wet theme for some is still present.

High pressure seems to decrease somewhat to the NW and looking at the warm uppers to the south, you'd expect it to include the UK at some stage.

High pressure decreases out in the NW but cool air in the Atlantic is present. However signs for something warmer in the south is there.

Very far out, and confidence is very low, but the trend in FI is to see lower pressure to the NW and warm air to the south starting to become more active.

Overall, for the forseeable future, High pressure to the north west will dominate resulting in unsettled conditions for most. For me, personally I could accept having unsettled conditions at this time of year as long as you get a decent share of sunshine, few suppresed temperature values and a bit of variety. But, values of 9C, and plenty of rainfall isn't very encouraging. However, I would be happy for this continue for a while until we see a change in pattern, FI is showing a change in pattern but confidence is very low and even FI charts aren't all that inspiring. If sunshine and some warmth is present at times during this pattern then I would be content, but probably won't be happy until a pattern change occurs. I'd say that we need to watch the models throughout June as we are in a period of transistion but equally so we could be in for a period where the Greenland persists all summer. Come the end of June, I think we'll have an idea about the theme for the first half-two thirds of the summer and hopefully by then we get some interesting and nice days out of June and be looking forward to an interesting July for varied but pleasant summer weather. I unfortuantly have my fears that we could see a similar summer to last year, with northern blocking. As a fan of the Great British weather and in particular winter weather, to some extent you can compare this situation right now to having a persistent, solid Azores High and PV in December - you know that you'll eventually get a change in pattern to something cooler and wintry at somestage, but the fear is that the regularity, duration and quality of cold spells may not come to frutrition. Right now, the pattern isn't what a summer fan (like myself) would hope for but you know that eventually you'll get sunshine and temperatures into the 20s, but on the scheme of things you have a fear that these spells would rare, short and hardly anything special. But what ever the weather, all forms do make for something interesting.

For the industries of the UK, farmers would welcome this cooler and wetter period after a very dry period, but wouldn't want it to continue for too long. Tourist industries wouldn't at all be happy at the current synoptics and would hope for a change.

So the next 15-30 days will be an interesting one to follow as warm spells like the recent spell can come out of the blue, and of course it will be interesting to see how the weather pans out in June and how July would be setting up. Any significant change in the synoptics could thankfully end any similarities between last summer, but on the other hand, the longer this theme of northern blocking continues, the more comparisons to an awful summer, unseasonal autumn and frustrating winter of last year. No two years are the same, but from a prespective for autumn and winter weather, I'd rather see this Greenland high go away. Hopefully, we'll see change this summer that will result in a different summer, autumn and winter to last year.

[johnholmes]

thank you for that ASWT-IF only others would use charts like that to give a view of what the models are showing rather than a very biased and selective comment or specially selected chart.

Everyone has a bias and you comment about yours but a first class post in my view-thanks again.

Edited May 30, 2012 by johnholmes

[Robbie Garrett]

Yeah someone on these forums (Crewe??) mentioned the state of the atmosphere was looking good for Winter. If we get charts like this on the GFS come early November, I think we might need a new Server. LOL!!

Edited May 30, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[Robbie Garrett]

Trend for northern heights to lower the bar.

With the realms of fantasy island pressure rising again towards the end of the ensemble runs for London.

They key for me is watching what the NAO does over the next week or two, if it falters then game on for a fairly decent Summer. If it's being hard to budge, then I can see a repeat of the last few years Summer, but IMHO I think it will budge.

Edited May 30, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[Summer Sun]

UKMO paints a fairly unsettled picture as next week begins

http://www.null/ds/ukmo.htm

[Deluxe]

UKMO paints a fairly unsettled picture as next week begins

http://www.jp2webdes....uk/ds/ukmo.htm

Well it looks OK up until Tuesday so I'm happy (going camping )

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yeah someone on these forums (Crewe??) mentioned the state of the atmosphere was looking good for Winter. If we get charts like this on the GFS come early November, I think we might need a new Server. LOL!!

Yes it was me, echoing thoughts by Chiono that there are tentative signs the strat may play ball this coming winter, based on its behaviour and break up this season just gone. All very early and tentative yet though so I wouldn't go buying sledges just yet! haha.

[95 Degrees]

Not a moderator but can we keep on topic with the current models please so that people don't get confused, and not the ones in 6/7 months time so that people don't get confused , we are here to dicuss the current models after all, I know it's great to have some humour in here, but there are many other threads for this.

[Jayces]

Not a moderator but can we keep on topic with the current models please so that people don't get confused, and not the ones in 6/7 months time so that people don't get confused , we are here to dicuss the current models after all, I know it's great to have some humour in here, but there are many other threads for this.

The CFS is still a model and I believe this thread is for any model discussion not just the near future but apologies if I am wrong.

[Summer Sun]

ECM offers a different outlook for Monday compared to the other models

For Tuesday we then enter a westerly set-up with some slightly milder getting pushed in

[A.J]

In reply to the previous few posts........For the 24,275,227th time, hit the report button to report any posts you consider questionable and let a member of the site team deal with it...., Please don't reply to said 'questionable' posts as all that results is the thread being thrown off-topic.... It never fails to amaze me how members can't follow the forum guidelines....

....and now, back to the Model Output Discussion......

Edited May 30, 2012 by ajpoolshark

[J10]

The Metoffice forecast is going for 14c here on Sunday with 19c Friday and 18c Saturday, not strictly model related and for more realistic than GFS temps.

[Alex]

Onto the models and I doubt 9/10c will come to fruition with 0-5c uppers across us and some bright weather. Interestingly enough I would think bright or sunny weather is probably going to happen for the majority from Saturday upto Monday only weak fronts may produce some cloud and some light showers. Prolonged rainfall and cold temperatures is unlikely with a ridge on top of us, I would think 15-20c is probably more likely. Tuesday is looking more unsettled ESP in the west but it's a little way off and subject to change.

[Cheese Rice]

Yes the temperatures look not that bad...

Seriously though its going to be chilly over the weekend. Some on here are either hope-casting or failing to accept the fact 10/12.c will be widespread max temperatures on Sunday.

Calling others 'trolls' makes no sense when these are the likely temperatures.

Edited May 30, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[Robbie Garrett]

Just had another proper look, June is throwing quite a few northerlies. Does seem to be reminiscent of April slightly.

[William of Walworth]

Who doesn't 'select' bits of charts ? Lets have some fairness please

Everyone does true. Not everyone manages complete objectivity either. But you're avoiding the obviousness with which that the particular poster mentioned is being deliberately selective with which ones are highlighted. And the extremity (indeed outlandish implausibility!) of the charts chosen, plus the timing, suggests to several here (not just me) that the purpose is far from purely meteorological.

If the moderators think I'm derailing, well they may have a point, but I'd also suggest they look at the real derailing cause rather than the effect, rather than instructing folks to 'just ignore it'.

On other forums I post on that get similarly disrupted,, warnings, and even temporary (?) suspensions from the administrators can sometimes have a productive effect. Posting from proper knowledge on this one.

Just had another proper look, June is throwing quite a few northerlies. Does seem to be reminiscent of April slightly.

Do you mean in the earlier stages? I can see possibilities for that if you do mean that, but beyond FI is surely far more up in the air. As FI and beyond always is

[William of Walworth]

Yes the temperatures look not that bad...

Seriously though its going to be chilly over the weekend. Some on here are either hope-casting or failing to accept the fact 10/12.c will be widespread max temperatures on Sunday.

Calling others 'trolls' makes no sense when these are the likely temperatures.

It depends which parts of the country you're talking about. And some posts about this increasing tendancy for chilier w/e conditionss (which I do accept are on the cards more than they were, ATM) still risk over emphasising the extremity of low daytime maxima IMO.

In any case even if they do verify (we'll see), for any contributor to deliberately pick the very coldest outlier-chart from a range, and then to focus only on that, while ignoring any other possible evolution also visible on other parts of the same-time output, is not good meteorology, whether it's trolling or not.

Edited May 30, 2012 by William of Walworth

[Robbie Garrett]

Do you mean in the earlier stages? I can see possibilities for that if you do mean that, but beyond FI is surely far more up in the air. As FI and beyond always is

Yeah, even in deep FI Northern blocking could continue. What it does show is a pesky Russian High, Greenland high, slack Azores so pretty much same old what we have seen the last few Summers developing after a short brief hot spell (probably akin to last June's) towards the end of June, where it goes then is definately DEEP FI for the long range 1 month model.

But it does show quite a few northerly outbreaks throughout the next few weeks, with the first one being very shortly.

There are two options, as I follow the CFS output on a regular basis as long-term forecasting has interested me.

1) The northern heights sink, and low pressure remains further north....Jetstream tracking North, maybe from a height rise from the Azores, followed by high pressure building into Europe and this jet tracking away from the UK. Low pressure building in between the Azores

2) High pressure builds again and we are having a 2009, 2010, 2011 Summer all over again..... and that's pretty much what we don't want.

This is the sort of solution we may come across with a fairly neutral NAO, come mid June - if the high pressure continues to build into Europe and doesn't over Greenland.

And this is how Summer started last June, with that massive heat we got...

It was all looking good, and that's exactly what the CFS is showing... northern heights decreasing, as well as the latest NAO backing this for a more neutral state NAO, and for me this is key in determining how Summer rolls of the Charts.

Edited May 30, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[bluearmy]

Sunday could be pretty wet in which case, across the higher parts of the country, temps could really struggle. Sleet however, is plain nonsense with uppers above zero.

Still intrigued about how the trough will really move in next week as opposed to the current model output. You do need to accept that the trough is coming - it's exactly how it takes control over our weather that remains a little unclear. Still signs on the extended ens that the trough will slowly lift out nw as we approach mid month. might not be so bad in the se after the initial setting in of the lower heights. I wonder where the area of mean precip between the troughing and warmer air to our se will set up?

[Cheese Rice]

In the short term southern England looks to hold onto the warmth for longest with temperatures creeping up to 20/23.c. Further north the cooler air will have set in suppressing max temperatures around the 10-14.c range.

Sunday/Monday looks to be the peak of the cold weather with widespread max temperatures of 10/12.c. Monday has the potential to be a very chilly day providing the front lingers over the south east, no higher than 10-12.c under the persistent rain. GFS has modeled this over the last few runs but this is likely to alter somewhat.

After a disappointing bank holiday conditions will improve with temperatures recovering to average across most of the UK. Struggling still in the far north. A more unsettled spell likely with southerly tracking lows bringing showers or longer spells of rain, particularly in the south. In-between though it should be pleasant and feel quite warm in the June sunshine. If we see these lows track further north then we could see a plume scenario. Although there isn't much suggest this will affect the UK.

Edited May 30, 2012 by Cheese Rice

[reef]

Quite a few off-topic posts have been removed. I suggest if you dont like a post instead of arguing on the open forum you report it and suggest why you think it might be against the rules and we can then take action. However, if a chart is showing then people are well within their rights to post it whether the type of weather is popular with the majority or not. This is the model output discussion thread, not the warm and settled weather discussion thread.