Model Output Discussion 14th May 2012 Onwards

[The Northern Ramper]

I am seeing a fi trend developing of height rises over the UK for the week and weekend after the bank holiday with warm air being pumped up from the south. Yes it is deep in FI but it has been a recurring theme of the last few runs and looks plausible to me.

[Summer Sun]

Rather unsettled GFS tonight before FI brings high pressure back

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

UKMO Looks to me as if the start of the bank holiday weekend will be best in the west

http://www.null/ds/ukmo.htm

[Summer Sun]

The bank holiday weekend is on a knife edge at the moment a slight shift of the high pressure from west to east would give us a dry weekend but there is always the chance of it going the other way the next few days should give us a clearer picture, only thing that is certain is the warm temperatures of this week won't be repeated sadly

Edited May 27, 2012 by Gavin D

[PubliusEnigma]

The bank holiday weekend is on a knife edge at the moment a slight shift of the high pressure from west to east would give us a dry weekend but there is always the chance of it going the other way the next few days should give us a clearer picture, only thing that is certain is the warm temperatures of this week won't be repeated sadly

No knife edge there. Cloudy.. Stratocumulus. North East breeze 13 - 15oC would be a safe bet.. Clearing skies at night could lead to a grass

frost in prone areas.. Some heavy showers likely in the east, and central and SE parts.. A good 25oF colder than this weeked quite likely !!

[bluearmy]

please lets not make the mistake of over analysing op charts beyond day 7. wait for the ens. PE - 2 weeks ago, you were a disciple of the daily express and look what happened. what is incredible is the persistence and strength of the retrogressive signal in our part of the hemisphere. i think that could well mean some pretty hot conditions as we move through the second half of june if the pattern holds.

[Deluxe]

No knife edge there. Cloudy.. Stratocumulus. North East breeze 13 - 15oC would be a safe bet.. Clearing skies at night could lead to a grass

frost in prone areas.. Some heavy showers likely in the east, and central and SE parts.. A good 25oF colder than this weeked quite likely !!

13-15c is underdoing it a little I feel - remember how strong the sun is and what we've just had. I think it'll feel chilly in the wind but 16-18c is more likely, with some sheltered spots hitting 20c

[Summer Sun]

Tonight's ensemble for London starts to rise again as we head towards the 2nd full week in June

[ANYWEATHER]

please lets not make the mistake of over analysing op charts beyond day 7. wait for the ens. PE - 2 weeks ago, you were a disciple of the daily express and look what happened. what is incredible is the persistence and strength of the retrogressive signal in our part of the hemisphere. i think that could well mean some pretty hot conditions as we move through the second half of june if the pattern holds.

TBH. there is fairly sound agreement on the upcoming weekend ,of course some changes will exist. Ecm and Gfs and Ukmo are all singing from the same Hymn sheet at t+144 of course FI, but the models have at last had a consensus of tying togeather there outputs! Certainly makes a change than of late!!!

Edited May 27, 2012 by ANYWEATHER

[PubliusEnigma]

please lets not make the mistake of over analysing op charts beyond day 7. wait for the ens. PE - 2 weeks ago, you were a disciple of the daily express and look what happened. what is incredible is the persistence and strength of the retrogressive signal in our part of the hemisphere. i think that could well mean some pretty hot conditions as we move through the second half of june if the pattern holds.

No one forecast this hot spell correctly, not the MO or anyone here. The chart preceding this hints strongly of the Upper trough moving SW towards

the UK in a weeks time - Its preferred position. If it sets up shop if it lasts as long as it did last time it will still be there come mid July.. What makes you thing we will have hot conditions from the middle of June ? Remember not to over analyse charts beyond 7 days, especially if they show a return to the average British summer.. This time next week the UK is surrounded by High Pressure to the SW, NW, NE and further SE.. with the only place for LP to go, over the UK..

Tonight's ensemble for London starts to rise again as we head towards the 2nd full week in June

Wow that is some drop in temps as we go into the beginning of June !

[Scorcher]

No one forecast this hot spell correctly, not the MO or anyone here. The chart preceding this hints strongly of the Upper trough moving SW towards

the UK in a weeks time - Its preferred position. If it sets up shop if it lasts as long as it did last time it will still be there come mid July.. What makes you thing we will have hot conditions from the middle of June ? Remember not to over analyse charts beyond 7 days, especially if they show a return to the average British summer.. This time next week the UK is surrounded by High Pressure to the SW, NW, NE and further SE.. with the only place for LP to go, over the UK..

You were further away than anyone in your forecasts for this past week! I don't get how this spell we have just had proves that the patterns of April are set to repeat- I see it as quite the opposite, looking at the ensembles I feel this may well be a temporary cooler spell before warmer conditions move in again.

[Cloud 10]

Looks like northern blocking is the form horse as we head into the start of summer with the

NAO heading very much into negative figures and the AO starting to follow.

CPC - Outreach: NOAA Climate Press Releases

Mean height comparisons for ECM/GFS tell the same story.

A cooler and more unsettled outlook is looking very likely,but not looking as bad

as most of April was as long as the jet-stream stays pretty weak!

I await GP's summer forecast with anticipation and trepidation!

[davehsug]

Please don't feed the troll. He's been absent whilst the outlook looked good for summer lovers. Now it's a bit less favourable, he's back to stir. God knows why he isn't banned!

Edited May 27, 2012 by davehsug

[camiscool]

Get ready for a crap summer everyone

[Hairy Celt]

Terminal decline now, we've had our summer. 850 temps down to -5C in a few days. The Day of the Lobster has gone.

[bluearmy]

Just a note that the latest naefs run has picked up a 2 day 'plume' for the southeast beyond the bank holiday. this in conjunction with the Atlantic trough getting close to the west of the uk and euro hi building to our se. Wasn't there on the 00z run so maybe just a rogue run. My point is that to say it's going to be cool for a long time beyond the current warm spell is supposition, just as saying it will be warm would be.

Edited May 28, 2012 by Osbourne One-Nil

[ribster]

Indeed Dave - I'm just conscious that there be people reading this forum in search of information. If certain viewpoints are left uncorrected, they may be misled. I would normally leave it but felt it was 'my turn' to intervene.

What a great point, '...there might be people reading this forum in search of information'. While I don't care for PE's posts, as he will have the opposite view whatever the season. However, are you going to tell me that Gav D's posts are informative? They are often misguided, misinformed and nothing more than half a sentence with a number of charts showing high pressure. If his posts are allowed to stand, then it's only fair that PE's are allowed to stay.

[Alex]

On the basis of the models, I would say the teleconnections are showing pretty mixed signals so anything beyond this bank holiday in my eyes will change alot in the next few days.

Edited May 28, 2012 by Osbourne One-Nil
To remove off topic information

[camiscool]

PIECE OF ADVISE FOR EVERYONE ON HERE : DONT LOOK BEYONG 5 DAYS ON THE MODELS. THEY ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE

[Alex]

I checked the AO and NAO and it looks like the decline in both those teleconnections is temporary, before it shoots back up again. As for the MJO I had a browse at it earlier and it is heading to phase 3, can't assume what that would bring however would mean probably a mid atlantic ridge meaning the west of the country would fare best and towards the east doesn't fare as well. Wonder what the stratosphere state is ATM as I believe that it can influence pressure patterns?

Stratospheric conditions are less pronounced in summer unlike winter, but the slight rise may help along with other teleconnections for northern blocking to form.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

[rob48]

I think the difference is that PE seems to like to stir where Gavin D isn't trying to stir he just likes anticyclonic weather.

On the basis of the models, I would say the teleconnections are showing pretty mixed signals so anything beyond this bank holiday in my eyes will change alot in the next few days.

Which makes his posts less informative than PE's.

[Cheese Rice]

I'm no expert but it does seem pretty exceptional to see sub -5 850s across NE England/Scotland in June. I know it can happen but it doesn't seem common.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It would be good if this thread's emphasis went back towards the model outputs rather than people's preferred weather (or trolling, as the case may be with certain posts)?

Tomorrow looks set to be the last of the hot sunny days, with the chance of some well-scattered, but heavy & thundery, showers getting going, particularly over the Midlands. Tuesday and Wednesday will be cooler but still bright and warm (highs of 19-22C generally) and increasing probability of thundery showers, perhaps some more organised rain spreading into the north on Wednesday.

Changes for the Bank Holiday weekend have revised the high pressure further west and brought in more of a direct arctic maritime airflow. This means more chance of scattered showers breaking out, but also less chance of eastern England seeing a stubborn stratocumulus sheet, with the relative instability of the airmass instead promoting broken convective cloud and sunny intervals. It will be rather cold, especially by night, if that setup comes off, though I'm sure that the GFS is over-egging some of the low minima.

[Robbie Garrett]

Just had a look at the models and GFS believes the upcoming - "Summer is over!!" spell is potentially over before it starts, Looool!!

GFS and GFS-E pretty confident on high pressure building in over Europe with a normal Azores high.

One thing for sure, is have we found a solution to our problem yet???!! What will the Summer weather prevail, the fact that there has been a lot of arctic outbreaks lately probably means less likely to be an Atlantic onslaught but there does seem to be a southwesterly on the last few hours into FI. CFS also indicative of a southwesterly/westerly regime.

There are so many options and I cannot see a clear forecast of what the weather will do, I don't think anyone can. But a Euro Ridge, Atlantic trough looks the likely option and I don't even think a Greeny high is likely to stay put.

I wouldn't be surprised to see another 1-2 of these 7 day 25-29*C lovely weather days over the course of the next 3 months, that will probably surprise us like this one did. Some people seem to forget it's only May, and even forget that you can get lovely weather in October, I take it most people have forgotten the 2 weeks that we got over 25*C and record temperatures and clear blue skies which beat this current spell hands down last year??

[mushymanrob]

Looks like northern blocking is the form horse as we head into the start of summer with the

NAO heading very much into negative figures and the AO starting to follow.

CPC - Outreach: NOAA Climate Press Releases

Mean height comparisons for ECM/GFS tell the same story.

A cooler and more unsettled outlook is looking very likely,but not looking as bad

as most of April was as long as the jet-stream stays pretty weak!

I await GP's summer forecast with anticipation and trepidation!

Those charts do not make for good viewing IF its summery warmth youre after. Theyve swung away from 'better' synoptics towards a more usual (of late) summer type with (as you say) northern blocking (which has spoilt so many recent summers). lets hope subsequent runs do not confirm this set up.

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I've just been through and removed quite a few posts, many of which I agree with, but none of which add anything to the discussion. Even at this time of year, can we please stay on topic? If there's a particular member you don't like, send them hate mail, just don't litter this thread with comments.