Model Output Discussion 14th May 2012 Onwards

[Summer Sun]

I just have a feeling that this summer is going to deliver to be one to remember for the right reasons this time

Back to the models and its as you were with HP still staying in control

ECM 12z

[I remember Atlantic 252]

I just have a feeling that this summer is going to deliver to be one to remember for the right reasons this time

Back to the models and its as you were with HP still staying in control

ECM 12z

Wednesday looks unsettled on there, I know it will be anyway as its my 0lympic torch day

[Summer Sun]

High pressure continues to build as we move close to the bank holiday weekend

[rob48]

I just have a feeling that this summer is going to deliver to be one to remember for the right reasons this time

Back to the models and its as you were with HP still staying in control

ECM 12z

Good of you to arbitrate on reasoning now too, as well as deciding our needs on our behalf.

[Summer Sun]

Well the bank holiday would start warm / hot if this were to come off

Edited May 24, 2012 by Gavin D

[phil nw.]

This current warm/very warm and essentially dry spell looks like extending well into next week based on the 12z outputs.

Heights are forecasted to be situated around the UK- and Western Europe generally-even by day5.

The NH 500 hPa UKMO chart at T120hrs. illustrates this clearly.

In the immediate outlook we will get a nice little Easterly for the southern half of the UK for a couple of days from tomorrow which will temper the heat just a little so it will feel quite refreshing with low humidity but the sun will still be deceptively strong in spite of the breeze.

So although temperatures may drop a little most places will exceed 21C through tomorrow and the weekend,especially further west .

As i said at the start the fine spell does look like extending beyond the weekend but there is a difference between GFS and the UKMO/ECM operational runs.next week.

GFS suggests a temporary break around midweek with low pressure extending into the UK from the Atlantic trough giving cooler and showery conditions.

This is not reflected in other outputs, including it`s own mean 500hPa data, so the GFS Op. looks like it`s on it`s own at the moment.

[syncmaster]

Do you get the feeling that we could be locked in this pattern for a while - Atlantic trough, euro high? MJO is progged to stay close to phase 8 and angular momentum is rather steady but low.

And for the less knowledgeable people this all means !!!!! LOL..

[Backtrack]

.. another fine example of the often randomness of the operational GFS. Bin.

meantime, GFS ensemble means..

http://raleighwx.ame...htAnomalyNH.gif

http://raleighwx.ame...htAnomalyNH.gif

Closed 500mb low locked in the Atlantic, and the draw of warm air from the south is unavoidable..

http://raleighwx.ame...omalyEurope.gif

http://raleighwx.ame...omalyEurope.gif

This is very conistent with low angular momentum (globally) and an upper atmosphere which is keeping tropical forcing in a phase 8 type state, not to mention cold surface waters in the Northern Pacific and a strongly positive anomaly over the equatorial eastern Pacific (Nino regions 1 + 2 are the warmest for several years).

Fantastic post as always GP.

A quick question from me, with the MJO forecast to move into phase 8, do you think the 'shades of 76' summer could be on the cards this summer?

I for one am a firm believer that this summer will be one to remember, and so far, the models are supporting me!

And for the less knowledgeable people this all means !!!!! LOL..

In simple terms, rinse & repeat of this week, with high pressure situated to our east, with Atlantic lows stalled out west, with the possibility of drawing some really warm air up from the Azores.

[ANYWEATHER]

For anyone who likes some interesting weather other than the endless blueskies like me, the charts for Monday/Tuesday next week,dont look too bad with something convective on offer and the latest meto12z offers that scenario further on with a slack area of pressure.

[Robbie Garrett]

If this chart came off and pressure distribution remained constant.. I would anticipate a +33oC or even +34oC somewhere to the

west of London, Northolt or Heathrow !!

Where have we seen this sort of setup before??? Early August 2003, very similar....and a week later, we all know what happened.

Even in a long term, with some chops and changes...

This is the sort of stuff the CFS is modelling, imagine what the GFS/UKMO/ECMWF would make of it..... Mid 30's and surely lots of Spanish Plumes, if the Atlantic can dig in every now and again through the Bay of Biscay. I think the MetOffice models in some respects are correct in saying unsettled, as I cannot for any one moment seeing June heavily settled.....with the trough lurking.

[Backtrack]

Come on guys, I am always on the lookout for settled weather & warm temperatures, but if you're anticipating temperatures into the mid-thirties, then you're on a long road to possible disappointment!

[syncmaster]

Fantastic post as always GP.

A quick question from me, with the MJO forecast to move into phase 8, do you think the 'shades of 76' summer could be on the cards this summer?

I for one am a firm believer that this summer will be one to remember, and so far, the models are supporting me!

In simple terms, rinse & repeat of this week, with high pressure situated to our east, with Atlantic lows stalled out west, with the possibility of drawing some really warm air up from the Azores.

Thank you backtrack thats what i was thinking, slowly getting the hang of it.. ive impressed myself lol,,,

[Robbie Garrett]

Come on guys, I am always on the lookout for settled weather & warm temperatures, but if you're anticipating temperatures into the mid-thirties, then you're on a long road to possible disappointment!

Hey,

It's happened quite a few times over the last decade. 2003, 2006 and 2011. Mid 30's are exceptionally hot, I went Turkey in 2009 and it was 40*C, that's unbearable. But we all want to see the 38.5*C broken

[summer blizzard]

Stonking outputs from the models, both of them.

In regards to Spanish Plume potential, i do not see it significantly. The setup that we have with low GLAMM is much more likely to lead to the trough being well west with the threat of a breakdown from the north as opposed to thundery potential from a trough breaking through from the west.

[Backtrack]

Hey,

It's happened quite a few times over the last decade. 2003, 2006 and 2011. Mid 30's are exceptionally hot, I went Turkey in 2009 and it was 40*C, that's unbearable. But we all want to see the 38.5*C broken

Would love to see it broken mate, just for the thrill of it, but I don't see any set-up on the charts at the moment that will provide near-desert like temperatures.

[summer blizzard]

Hey,

It's happened quite a few times over the last decade. 2003, 2006 and 2011. Mid 30's are exceptionally hot, I went Turkey in 2009 and it was 40*C, that's unbearable. But we all want to see the 38.5*C broken

2005 seems to have been forgotten, it had the hottest second half since 1976 with maxima in excess of 34C.

[Geordiesnow]

With such an unusually strong Greenland high and Arctic dipole, then the chances of a Northerly/NE'ly is quite high and the models hint at this, fortunately the Azores high is predicted to win out by most models at this moment in time but it only needs a trigger low to overide any Azores high and we will then be a cool northerly airflow and not a warm southerly one. The south looks more favourable to keep the warmth and sunshine whilst Scotland/shetland is more in risk having cloud being toppled down from the Northerly flow.

Its similar when you get a blocking high and the Atlantic trying to come into our shores in the winter season except this battle will be a North-South battle.

On my POV I hope the ECM is right as it suggests more favourable warmth even here with winds coming off shore.

[Robbie Garrett]

2005 seems to have been forgotten, it had the hottest second half since 1976 with maxima in excess of 34C.

Would love to see it broken mate, just for the thrill of it, but I don't see any set-up on the charts at the moment that will provide near-desert like temperatures.

Sorry, 2005 seems to always be forgotten. I do remember those years in secondary school being really warm, one of the Septembers was a stonker, not sure one.

I've always wondered and it's always fascinated me why the UK doesn't get extreme negative or extreme positive temperatures. The most I've seen is +20 in 2003 at 850hpa over the south east corner and -10/14*C down South. You see it heading our way, and it just fizzles out temperature wise to around about erm, average. LOL!!

The only way we can break the 2003 record, I guess it 20-25*C 850hpa being pumped up during early July - Mid August where Sea temperatures would be warmer, and the everything has come together. But give or take.

Just gotta await and see what the 18z run of the day shows, it might get a little tasty...

[bluearmy]

With such an unusually strong Greenland high and Arctic dipole, then the chances of a Northerly/NE'ly is quite high and the models hint at this, fortunately the Azores high is predicted to win out by most models at this moment in time but it only needs a trigger low to overide any Azores high and we will then be a cool northerly airflow and not a warm southerly one. The south looks more favourable to keep the warmth and sunshine whilst Scotland/shetland is more in risk having cloud being toppled down from the Northerly flow.

Its similar when you get a blocking high and the Atlantic trying to come into our shores in the winter season except this battle will be a North-South battle.

On my POV I hope the ECM is right as it suggests more favourable warmth even here with winds coming off shore.

the ecm spreads continue to show enough runs bringing that cooler air south across most of the uk (apart from the west ). how cool is open to debate and the spreads on thickness also show an appetite to take a shallow depression across us later next week. enough runs to show it as a defined feature and the ens mean appears to take a reasonable defined warm front ne middle next week off. maybe gfs op was closer to what may happen than some think although a middle ground solution would still be reasonable if not as settled as this week.

[Alex]

Stonking outputs from the models, both of them.

In regards to Spanish Plume potential, i do not see it significantly. The setup that we have with low GLAMM is much more likely to lead to the trough being well west with the threat of a breakdown from the north as opposed to thundery potential from a trough breaking through from the west.

Interesting thoughts SB however a breakdown from the north can also hold thundery potential - May 98 is an example I can remember where an anticyclonic spell was ended by a breakdown from the north and it ended in spectacular fashion here in Essex!

[J10]

This current warm/very warm and essentially dry spell looks like extending well into next week based on the 12z outputs.

Heights are forecasted to be situated around the UK- and Western Europe generally-even by day5.

The NH 500 hPa UKMO chart at T120hrs. illustrates this clearly.

In the immediate outlook we will get a nice little Easterly for the southern half of the UK for a couple of days from tomorrow which will temper the heat just a little so it will feel quite refreshing with low humidity but the sun will still be deceptively strong in spite of the breeze.

So although temperatures may drop a little most places will exceed 21C through tomorrow and the weekend,especially further west .

As i said at the start the fine spell does look like extending beyond the weekend but there is a difference between GFS and the UKMO/ECM operational runs.next week.

GFS suggests a temporary break around midweek with low pressure extending into the UK from the Atlantic trough giving cooler and showery conditions.

This is not reflected in other outputs, including it`s own mean 500hPa data, so the GFS Op. looks like it`s on it`s own at the moment.

Whiles South Eastern areas will be cooler tomorrow, it is set to be warmer in western areas as the wind will not be off the sea which has suppressed temps here in recent days. It does like being less warm as we move into next week, to me the uncertainty in the models makes it difficult to pinpoint any more than that.

[damianslaw]

Stonking outputs from the models, both of them.

In regards to Spanish Plume potential, i do not see it significantly. The setup that we have with low GLAMM is much more likely to lead to the trough being well west with the threat of a breakdown from the north as opposed to thundery potential from a trough breaking through from the west.

Good post this one, many appear to looking at developments to the south, but I believe all eyes should be to the north, the atlantic trough does look like stalling over the mid atlantic with a closed low going nowhere fast - locked into position thanks to the azores high ridging NE. As you say any breakdown is more likely to come courtesy of a scandi trough development joining forces with the way out west atlantic trough as we see strong greenland heights - may take a while but it would result in the trough once again languishing across the country.

Meanwhile it is a predominantly warm/very warm spell and mostly dry before we see more unstable air move in from the SW later in the weekend into next week with the chance of thundery showers becoming very widespread but temps will still hold into the low 20's - very respectable for the time of year and more akin to peak summer conditions.

The models suggest the azores high will ridge NE later into the week bringing potentially a very warm/hot and humid weekend, but its a long while off yet and with the import of more tropical air comes the greater risk of thundery downpours and much hazier skies, rather than the superb brilliant skies associated with easterlies, much cleaner and far more stable.

The current spell of weather bears similiar hallmarks to the synoptics of late May 2009 and also late April 2011, but it is foolish person to expect such synoptics to last through the whole of the summer.. some people never learn... recent similiar early summer set ups have come to a crash landing.. things may be different this year.. but as we know, changes can and often do occur out of the blue, just when you've been lulled into a false sense of them goingon forever, indeed I'm a firm believer in the longer and deeper a spell dig in the more likely it is likely to come to an almighty crash landing..this happens in winter as well as history shows us - think dec 2010 and what followed.

[PubliusEnigma]

Where have we seen this sort of setup before??? Early August 2003, very similar....and a week later, we all know what happened.

Exactly worryingly warm nights around 21 or 22oC !! the 00z was a spitting image of 10aug 2003 or was it 2006 ?

[Robbie Garrett]

Exactly worryingly warm nights around 21 or 22oC !! the 00z was a spitting image of 10aug 2003 or was it 2006 ?

Yeah, they are immensely horrible.... I think the last time we had a horrible night period was 2010... had a few of those. I remember watching BBC News/Sky News at the same time with the Raul Moat dude and thinking at least he ain't cold out there, I think the midnight temperature was 22*C, with room temperatures close to 30*C

Anyhow, will be worth noting with interest how next week plays out.... a possibility is the models are confused as to when this Thundery breakdown Monday/Tuesday occurs before temperatures go back up to where they where... could have potential to change things downstream.

Edited May 24, 2012 by Robbie Garrett

[Costa Del Fal]

GFS 18z falling in line with the ECM etc now and delivering very warm /hot weather by late next week. Still a week away yes but some very good agreement thus far now. GFS still going for a little midweek rain/thundery showers but quite insignificant really. Wednesday may be the coolest day if you can it that before temperatures are back into the high 20's with high pressure firmly establishing itself over the UK with a nice bubble of +10c 850hPa air.

Including this week, could we end up approaching at least 2 weeks of this very warm/hot weather???

Edited May 24, 2012 by Blizzards