Model Output Discussion 14th May 2012 Onwards

[Deluxe]

I read a few months ago that the 6z had the lowest verification stats of the four runs.

Well I do know the 06z is sometimes referred to as the pub run for the very reason you state, but it will be correct sometimes!

[NL]

Well I do know the 06z is sometimes referred to as the pub run for the very reason you state, but it will be correct sometimes!

The 18z is known as the pub run and not the 06z..

Edited May 23, 2012 by NL

[Radiating Dendrite]

Well I do know the 06z is sometimes referred to as the pub run for the very reason you state, but it will be correct sometimes!

It is the 18z that is known as the pub run.

The 6z has become slightly less reliable, but it is always best to stick with one run and see how it changes day to day.

[Deluxe]

It is the 18z that is known as the pub run.

The 6z has become slightly less reliable, but it is always best to stick with one run and see how it changes day to day.

Whoops, well count me embarrassed! I honestly thought it was the 06z! You learn something new every day...

[Methuselah]

What are people's thoughts regarding GFS 06z? Worse than ECM and Met Office charts in the mid-term, and way off the mark with regards to the 18z and 00z runs. Is it on to something, or is it likely to be an outlier? I'm inclined to think the latter, but that might be my preference for a high pressure dominated summer clouding my thoughts!

If you use it, in conjunction with other runs/models, as nothing more than a guide to what looks most likely, and don't get too carried away with the details, it can be a marvellous tool. Otherwise, as I can testify from personal experience, you are likely to see a lot of disappointments...

[95 Degrees]

Slightly cooler if not wetter week next week.

July is looking really nice with 30* for most of the month, possible 33*C in sme places up to the 17th July. with 40*C not a problem in southern france, northern spain.

29-30*C in Scotland, 34*C + easily reached in London/Kent. Rainfall does seem to be quite high, I guess it could mean a very stormy hot July. Not sure what the CFS is going on about with temperatures like that and rainfall that it's showing.

Overall June could be pretty unsettled and thundery, but warmer than of late. The fact you have 20-24*C 850hpa sitting over Spain worries me, that if the high/lows position right.... that air will stream up towards the UK and you have yourself a August 2003 again.

40C is Southern Spain/Northern France would be crazy, because that would mean the third year that 40C has occurred widespread in that area, with 4 years in a row in some areas, the models do look good though, but remember last year, when everyone was saying shades of 76 or 95 and that kind of optimism, things could still end up like last year, even if it looks good now.

[Gordon Webb]

40C is Southern Spain/Northern France would be crazy, because that would mean the third year that 40C has occurred widespread in that area, with 4 years in a row in some areas, the models do look good though, but remember last year, when everyone was saying shades of 76 or 95 and that kind of optimism, things could still end up like last year, even if it looks good now.

Yeah , I remember that shades of 76 forecast last year , the only thing that was near the 76 mark was the number of days of mediocre weather

Don't want it stifling hot but a decent summer is certainly due but whether we'll get it remains to be seen and so I'm not drifting off topics as for the models I think Kate Moss looks great

[Robbie Garrett]

40C is Southern Spain/Northern France would be crazy, because that would mean the third year that 40C has occurred widespread in that area, with 4 years in a row in some areas, the models do look good though, but remember last year, when everyone was saying shades of 76 or 95 and that kind of optimism, things could still end up like last year, even if it looks good now.

I didn't know that, but I guess odds are on then?? It's great that these low's continue though especially in a southerly route, as that could mean they eventually may get stuck or die out and you will get a nice way of pumping that hot air up

[Summer Sun]

A fairly unsettled picture from GFS tonight once we get into next week, still ample time for that to change of course

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[J10]

Looking at CAPE charts, chance of some thundery showers on Thursday in central southern parts of the UK, with the risk extending westwards during the evening, the risk for for South western areas on Friday, but less than on Thursday,. Saturday sees a lower risk again, but an increased risk for South western areas Sunday night.

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120523/12/30/ukcapeli.png [Thu 6pm]

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120523/12/54/ukcapeli.png [Fri 6pm]

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120523/12/78/ukcapeli.png [sat 6pm]

http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20120523/12/102/ukcapeli.png [sun 6pm]

[Summer Sun]

High pressure anyone?

No breakdown in sight yet with high pressure dominating into next week

[Essan]

Yes, UKMO looks good tonight. I think that HP is going to hang around a while, though some thundery showers for the Jubilee weekend and maybe not quite as hot as it is atm

[Robbie Garrett]

High pressure anyone?

No breakdown in sight yet with high pressure dominating into next week

Yeah but most importantly look at that trough to our west/south west... perfect positioning for a mega summer heatwave.

[Summer Sun]

Yeah but most importantly look at that trough to our west/south west... perfect positioning for a mega summer heatwave.

Things seem to going right this year everything is going into place just in time, hopefully things will continue to look good as we move into June

[A Winter's Tale]

High pressure anyone?

No breakdown in sight yet with high pressure dominating into next week

Good news, it'll be interesting to see how long this theme of high pressure lasts, hopefully a good while before we can get some brief wet conditions to keep the plants happy and then get more of the high pressure. Bring it on I say!

If these charts continue to show a theme of high pressure into June, perhaps a 2006 style summer could be on the cards.........

[ANYWEATHER]

Cant see where Gavin is coming from TBH. General consensus is for pressure to fall away from the South......during the weekend!

[Summer Sun]

Cant see where Gavin is coming from TBH. General consensus is for pressure to fall away from the South......during the weekend!

Nothing to do with me UKMO is showing HP to dominate

http://www.null/ds/ukmo.htm

[Summer Sun]

It will be interesting to see which way this goes with LP to the west and high pressure building to the east

[ANYWEATHER]

Nothing to do with me UKMO is showing HP to dominate

http://www.jp2webdes....uk/ds/ukmo.htm

I know you like high pressure Gavin. but Ecm and Ukmo show potential thundery allbeit warm muggy conditions for next week.

[Summer Sun]

I know you like high pressure Gavin. but Ecm and Ukmo show potential thundery allbeit warm muggy conditions for next week.

Nothing better than a good thunderstorm to clear the air

[Summer Sun]

Aberdeen's ensemble take a dive next week

London's aint as bad, with a rise showing into June

Its a while since we saw charts like this

Edited May 23, 2012 by Gavin D

[Weather Wizard]

It will be interesting to see which way this goes with LP to the west and high pressure building to the east

Those charts scream warm, muggy and great thunderstorm potential

[Milhouse]

London's aint as bad, with a rise showing into June

Not often we see the mean that much above average in FI. Just shows that there is good support for a renewed push of heat from the south for the beginning of June.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Those ECMWF charts bring in returning polar maritime air, but I doubt there would be widespread thundery activity with such strong winds around the periphery of the low- we might get sunshine and showers from those charts but ideally for widespread thunder we'd need a slacker south-westerly flow. The ECM continues with its theme of sending the Atlantic in, but the change doesn't start until T+168 and is subject to further revision, especially given the lack of support from UKMO and GFS.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

dont like bring bad news!! look like the long weekend coming next weekend going to be a wash out!!