Model Output Discussion 14th May 2012 Onwards

[Methuselah]

But we are not all scientists; and even scientists sometime lose sight of objectivity...I know that subjectively-expressed viewpoints that differ from my own can be annoying at times, but we'd all get pretty bored if each and every post was unerringly passive?

[J10]

In an ideal world as well, there would be no regional bias on here, but there is even less chance of that happening, that is a bit off topic sorry.

If my post offended anyone or put anyone off posting their preference for any weather type, that wasn't my intention

It would be boring if we all thought the same.

[Geordiesnow]

For people in the east and not far away from the North Sea, for the early part of next week, it will be a case of how far inland any low cloud comes in and whether or not it will burn off or not during the day. It does look like the pattern to me is that as we head towards midweek beyond, the easterly breeze will pick up quite a bit and could even turn rather gusty and alot more cloudier in the South in particular and we may end up in a period of an easterly flow for potentially for the rest of the month although thats still too early to say.

Always a potential of a cool northerly if the high retrogress into Greenland successfully which the models do sort of hint at so enjoy the warm sunshine if your lucky enough to get it.

[ANYWEATHER]

Both Ecm and Gfs show an increasingly, very warm dry settled spell this week THEN.,a breakdown from the SouthWest . Look at these charts....

[Summer Sun]

Tonights ensembles

[Backtrack]

Tonights ensembles

Looking likely the operational run was a bit of an outlier then, good ensemble support for high pressure to stay in charge for the foreseeable future.

Edited May 20, 2012 by Backtrack

[The Northern Ramper]

Tonights ensembles

And?

[Wilks]

You have missed the specific point here, he mentioned that there may be storms in south western areas this weekend, this weekend first of all is a bank holiday and more importantly locally sees the Olympic Torch Relay pass through, something that is likely never to happen again, I have got no problem with storms as mentioned in my following post, but for 2 days I would wish for dry and preferably sunny weather, at least for here.

There was no mention about settled weather as I know that annoys some people. I also did a nice reply to Hartle, in that he can have his desire for storms after we have some sunny warm weather, just not this weekend.

A slight overreaction to my comment me thinks.

Firstly, this weekend is not a bank holiday weekend, the comments related to this weekend not the weekend after, which is.

Looking at the ensembles I'm not so sure that breakdown coming from the SW Sat/Sun is in fact going to happen and I can see that being weakened and pushed back or not happening at all.

[Summer Sun]

And?

Your answer is in post 211

[Thundery wintry showers]

You have missed the specific point here, he mentioned that there may be storms in south western areas this weekend, this weekend first of all is a bank holiday and more importantly locally sees the Olympic Torch Relay pass through, something that is likely never to happen again, I have got no problem with storms as mentioned in my following post, but for 2 days I would wish for dry and preferably sunny weather, at least for here.

There was no mention about settled weather as I know that annoys some people. I also did a nice reply to Hartle, in that he can have his desire for storms after we have some sunny warm weather, just not this weekend.

A slight overreaction to my comment me thinks.

My comment wasn't aimed just at what you said (apologies if it came across that way, it's easy to give the wrong impression online)- it was rather fuelled by frustration at the recent trend in this thread after a spell with only modest amounts of subjectivity and bias (I do agree with Solar Sausage, btw, that a certain amount of subjectivity is inevitable and doesn't really do any harm). I saw a post hinting at desire for storms get pulled up after weeks of posts that took it for granted that we're all after high pressure and absence of rain, and it's in that longer-term context that I reacted in the way I did.

Regarding the point made, though, on any given day there will be significant events occurring where people don't want them being rain-affected (traditional wedding celebrations for instance) and thus any desire for storms will always clash with other people's desire for dry weather- especially at weekends.

Meanwhile, I agree about the probable lack of a breakdown from the SW, and the models are often over-progressive at bringing about such an event. The low pressure to the SW looks more likely to slide eastwards to the south of Britain, maintaining dry sunny weather in the west (though not quite as warm as during the middle part of this week) whereas cooler cloudier conditions are likely to come into eastern areas from Friday onwards.

I don't think low cloud will be particularly widespread in the east midweek as the easterly flow will be sluggish and the airmass will not be particularly moist.

[J10]

Firstly, this weekend is not a bank holiday weekend, the comments related to this weekend not the weekend after, which is.

Looking at the ensembles I'm not so sure that breakdown coming from the SW Sat/Sun is in fact going to happen and I can see that being weakened and pushed back or not happening at all.

I genuinely thought next weekend was a bank holiday, You can take that spade off me now.

My comment wasn't aimed just at what you said (apologies if it came across that way, it's easy to give the wrong impression online)- it was rather fuelled by frustration at the recent trend in this thread after a spell with only modest amounts of subjectivity and bias (I do agree with Solar Sausage, btw, that a certain amount of subjectivity is inevitable and doesn't really do any harm). I saw a post hinting at desire for storms get pulled up after weeks of posts that took it for granted that we're all after high pressure and absence of rain, and it's in that longer-term context that I reacted in the way I did.

Regarding the point made, though, on any given day there will be significant events occurring where people don't want them being rain-affected (traditional wedding celebrations for instance) and thus any desire for storms will always clash with other people's desire for dry weather- especially at weekends.

Meanwhile, I agree about the probable lack of a breakdown from the SW, and the models are often over-progressive at bringing about such an event. The low pressure to the SW looks more likely to slide eastwards to the south of Britain, maintaining dry sunny weather in the west (though not quite as warm as during the middle part of this week) whereas cooler cloudier conditions are likely to come into eastern areas from Friday onwards.

I don't think low cloud will be particularly widespread in the east midweek as the easterly flow will be sluggish and the airmass will not be particularly moist.

Cheers for that, I didn't make it clear enough in my initial post about my specific reasons for wanting good weather locally. The past week has been mostly dry, next week is looking dry, although with a very realistic chance of niggling cloud, but that's another matter. Just our luck for a massive thunderstorm next Saturday into Sunday. given the option of 15c and sunny intervals next Saturday, I'd take it.

Sorry again.

[Thundery wintry showers]

Don't worry about it- the "it's easy to give the wrong impression online" applies to your post as well.

There appears to be a fair amount of uncertainty over the track of the low pressure to the south during the weekend- this will help determine the amount of shower activity in the SW as well as the amount of low cloud in the east. In my experience the GFS often overcooks shower activity in these setups, but it's too far out at present to be able to have much certainty over the outcome- by Tuesday/Wednesday we should have a better idea.

[skifreak]

It's going to be very difficult to pull off a sickie and hit CairnGorm Mountain this week - how do you explain the tan and panda eyes, but maybe just maybe they'll make it into the start of June with fresh snow if the 12z GFS is onto something, this might be a stonking outlier in the Aberdeen ensembles, but similar outcomes have come a few times since the end of May came into GFS range. It would be a fitting end to cap off perhaps the most bizzare snowsports season since lift served snowsports formally begun in Dec 1961.

[The Northern Ramper]

Your answer is in post 211

Perhaps you should add a description to what you are posting and not hope that somebody else can explain them for you.

[johnholmes]

The ouput from ECMWF and GFS 500mb charts this morning is something of a change from the last 5-6 days. It remains to be seen, ECMWF in particular, if its maintained and also supported this evening from NOAA but, if the change shown is maintained for a day or two, then the settled dry and warm/very warm spell, away from the east coast and parts of the SW may well be short lived.

[Polar Maritime]

It's looking likely to be only a blip of average temps/weather for the time of year, before things start to become cool/cold and unsettled with rain in the South and brisk N/E winds by the end of the week.

[Deluxe]

It's looking likely to be only a blip of average temps/weather for the time of year, before things start to become cool/cold and unsettled with rain in the South and brisk N/E winds by the end of the week.

I reckon it is very uncertain what will happen after the weekend. We are struggling to gauge cloud amounts this week with contrasts between media forecasts and what the models are showing, so although I expect showers in the south and stronger easterlies by the week's end, I think we will see a wide range of outlooks after t+144 especially.

Also apologies for inadvertently setting off a lively discussion during the previous few pages! Glad it has been sorted

[Frank Trough]

It's looking likely to be only a blip of average temps/weather for the time of year, before things start to become cool/cold and unsettled with rain in the South and brisk N/E winds by the end of the week.

hmmmm. The ECM ensemble mean from T+ 168 is rather different from the operational in what happens to the trough.

What does that mean, exactly?! is the operational likely to be nearer the mark in these situations or is the mean a better guide?

[Deluxe]

hmmmm. The ECM ensemble mean from T+ 168 is rather different from the operational in what happens to the trough.

What does that mean, exactly?! is the operational likely to be nearer the mark in these situations or is the mean a better guide?

Neither, the troughing is causing the uncertainty. More runs needed!

[Scorcher]

It's looking likely to be only a blip of average temps/weather for the time of year, before things start to become cool/cold and unsettled with rain in the South and brisk N/E winds by the end of the week.

I think 'cold' is a slight overstatement, GFS keeps things fairly warm into next week. Certainly no return to the kind of conditions we've had over the last few weeks.

[Deluxe]

I think 'cold' is a slight overstatement, GFS keeps things fairly warm into next week. Certainly no return to the kind of conditions we've had over the last few weeks.

True, the ensembles show temperatures returning to about average after above-average values for most this week.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It is looking like cloud will be rather more stubborn than previously expected in eastern areas today, though most of it should burn off tomorrow leaving a dry sunny day. Wednesday looks set to be the peak day for warmth and sunshine with temperatures reaching the mid twenties for some. Thursday looks fairly unusual on the GFS with cloud drifting in from the continent (rather than the North Sea) and daytime temperatures holding up at 20-24C- it may well be that GFS is overdoing the amount of cloud.

The warm sunshine looks set to be eroded from the NE (stratus and E/NE winds) and SW (possible showery rain spreading in) from Friday onwards, although the extent of the erosion is unclear- the ECMWF operational run, showing retrogression of the high to Greenland, is not well supported by its ensembles or by the UKMO.

[Summer Sun]

Ensembles for the 00z

Hardly no rain for the rest of May temperatures remain fairly warm

Slightly more rain for the south

[TonyH]

Looking increasingly like the warm dry spell will only last to this weekend at best, some pretty unsettled charts showing for next week:

For example.

Edited May 21, 2012 by TonyH

[Alex]

The ouput from ECMWF and GFS 500mb charts this morning is something of a change from the last 5-6 days. It remains to be seen, ECMWF in particular, if its maintained and also supported this evening from NOAA but, if the change shown is maintained for a day or two, then the settled dry and warm/very warm spell, away from the east coast and parts of the SW may well be short lived.

Hardly suprised with the MJO pushing into phase 1, I would expect a start to June to be similar to last year with a bit more warmth intact, it's very unfortunate and we do seem to be out of luck for a decent settled spell! At least it'll be warmer.