Model Output Discussion 14th May 2012 Onwards

[Glacier Point]

the cpc charts seemed to be quite solid on a decent mean block becoming established to the north of the uk 6/14 days and the troughing held over the continent. the fi ops are very keen to retrogress these heights quite quickly and bring in another trough to nw europe. the retrogression has long been the trend in the fi ens but not as quickly as the ops seem to want to do. at least a few better days in the offing later next week. beyond that, who knows. i wouldnt be so sure that the block will hold firm close enough to the uk to deliver more than a few days of better surface conditions. i guess any change in the long established lw pattern will take some time to be modelled correctly. maybe its just fi shannanigans from the ops.

I think there is a good case here for the atmosphere generally remaining in the forcing pattern that's it's been in for the last few weeks, but an effective change coming about because of seasonal wavelengths bringing about change into June. Case here would be for a rise in heights over Scandinavia and troughing (cut off) to our south-west as the pattern upstream relaxes a touch. I suspect CPC are not handling the development of a mean ridge south of Alaska too well (the net effect for us in helping to shift our mean trough westwards.

Edited May 17, 2012 by Glacier Point

[Geordiesnow]

That looks quite a cool and wet chart for parts of the country to me Gavin, there is hints we may see pressure rise quite significantly but at this moment in time, any pressure rise looks like will result in the orientation of any high pressure which is not favourable for our shores.

If the uppers do get warmer, then western areas could see quite high temperatures in cloud breaks whilst the East will be much cloudier and cooler.

[Paul]

Latest outlook and view on the models from Michael Fish

[Milhouse]

ECM op was not as much an outlier as i thought. The mean keeps high pressure anchored over Scandinavia right out to 240h. The development of an easterly seems the likely scenario for later next week. As its late May this could mean temperatures as high as the mid 20s for favoured western areas.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.html

[Milhouse]

It makes a change to see a nice bump of warm uppers coming up from the south affecting the UK. For so long we have been on the wrong side of the trough with below average upper temperatures feeding down from the north.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2402.html

[Scorcher]

It makes a change to see a nice bump of warm uppers coming up from the south affecting the UK. For so long we have been on the wrong side of the trough with below average upper temperatures feeding down from the north.

http://www.wetterzen...s/Reem2402.html

Yes it is great to see those green colours finally away to the north where they belong, will be great to feel some warmer air as it has been very 'fresh' recently.

[TonyH]

Yes but unfortunately GFS is showing an unsettled end to the week.

[William of Walworth]

But various runs on all models have fluctuated quite widely for a while, beyond the very reliable timeframe that is.

[Milhouse]

But various runs on all models have fluctuated quite widely for a while, beyond the very reliable timeframe that is.

Still some quite notable variations shown between the models. At the moment the main point of discussion looks to be whether high pressure will build strongly to the north, the north east, or the east. Many options still remain on the table tonight.

The GFS and the majority of the ensembles seem keen to build pressure to the north of the UK. The ECM has it more over to the north east whereas GEM and NOGAPS have the high orientated in a more north-south position over the UK.

[PubliusEnigma]

Looking ahead towards the latter part of May. The GFS has the northerlies still feeding south, low pressure in the could bring

south could bring some high rainfall totals and a risk of flooding once more.. that risk spreading northwards into central parts.

\\

We can only hope that large Anticyclone over Greenland doesnt hang around for too many weeks, as they can be incredibly

hard features to shift in summer months, as has often been the case in recent summers.. Some real hot weather over most

of Europe still away from the cool north west sector.

[bluearmy]

Looking ahead towards the latter part of May. The GFS has the northerlies still feeding south, low pressure in the could bring

south could bring some high rainfall totals and a risk of flooding once more.. that risk spreading northwards into central parts.

We can only hope that large Anticyclone over Greenland doesnt hang around for too many weeks, as they can be incredibly

hard features to shift in summer months, as has often been the case in recent summers.. Some real hot weather over most

of Europe still away from the cool north west sector.

and what if we ignore gfs fi PE ?? fwiw, your ideas about cooler air coming back towards us around a retrogressing block are currently well founded, judging by the fi naefs spreads on 850's. whether they quite make it this far is the current question though that may change as the modelling evolves over the next few days.

[Alex]

Looking ahead towards the latter part of May. The GFS has the northerlies still feeding south, low pressure in the could bring

south could bring some high rainfall totals and a risk of flooding once more.. that risk spreading northwards into central parts.

\\

We can only hope that large Anticyclone over Greenland doesnt hang around for too many weeks, as they can be incredibly

hard features to shift in summer months, as has often been the case in recent summers.. Some real hot weather over most

of Europe still away from the cool north west sector.

Come on PE are you trying to wind people up again cherry picking charts? You are becoming the Gavin of Greenland Highs in the summer.

If you read GPs comments above you will see all you need to see, that the atmosphere is being forced into a Scandi ridge/Atlantic trough scenairo but we may have to wait until June for a mainstream change.

[The Northern Ramper]

I don't care what anybody says regarding cloud orientation around the high, compared to the last six weeks next weeks charts look a welcome relief.

[KTtom]

I don't care what anybody says regarding cloud orientation around the high, compared to the last six weeks next weeks charts look a welcome relief.

Pretty good agreement on some 'summer weather' beginning next week and possibly lasting for around 10 days or so. Sunny with temps reaching the low 20's will be a welcome relief. The Met still a little concerning with predictions of rain heading north east over next weekend and then remaining unsettled. The models this morning however show High pressure to the north holding firm. Looks like next weekend will be key as to whether this is going to be a warm settled spell of a warm settled 'snap'.

[Alex]

Yes it seems like a much improved picture next week with uppers of 10c covering most of the UK and with winds off the continent then a sunny spell for most other than maybe north eastern coastal districts. Let's hope it lasts!

[Summer Sun]

Much better outlook for next week and not before time, with a bit of luck we'll all see some lovely warm sunshine for a time next week, its well over due

It's what we need now, crops are behind and this cloud and rain has been here too long now

Edited May 18, 2012 by Gavin D

[shedhead]

As I suggested earlier this week a slow, steady improvement in the overall pattern continues to emerge, indeed this mornings ECM looks pretty good, even very good compared to what we've endured for the last 6 or 7 weeks. OK still no sign of significant heat, but drier and warmer it most certainly looks as we progress through the final third of May, something I'm sure many of us would have settled for only a short time ago. Hopefully come Sept we'll be looking back on a Summer that just got better and better, rather than another one that started well and just went inexorably downhill.

[NUT]

Pleasing the fact that it is looking a lot better for next week at least. How long it will last is anybody's guess but anything better than the last month and a half? Think everybody will take that

[johnholmes]

I see nothing in the last outputs from the 500mb charts NOAA last evening and ECMWF-GFS this morning to alter my comments from yesterday morning

A far more settled end to May than seemed likely even 4-5 days ago, possibly into early June as well.

[Costa Del Fal]

ECM ensembles quite clearly agreeing with the op now on a much more High pressure dominated outlook next week. Touch wood, it looks like lasting longer than a few days too but by then were still into FI. However, very likely it will warm up next week now and turn drier at least for a few days. GFS painting a similar picture with 850hpa temps between 5-10c. Temperatures look like reaching 20-24c, maybe a touch higher if were lucky. This is certainly long waited for and a chance to enjoy the outdoors better! Lets hope changes are not for the worse for now!

[samadamsuk]

Models looking much more promissing. From my simple viewpoint, a favourable change was in the wind at the point we started to see the icy polar stream that was streaming down for weeks and mixing with continental heat, and the models have been good in the whole at indicating favourable HP to our north for a while now.

Cheers ,Sam

[phil nw.]

Well the promise of warmer and fairer weather as we go into next week continues this morning.

The cold upper trough that`s been ever present over our latitude finally warmed out and the polar air along with the jet stream located much further north.

The latest ens means at 500hPa at day 10 are also looking very pleasant..

A dry and quite sunny setup for many-not overally warm,around average perhaps a little higher in the south east but North Sea coastal areas would be, at times, prone to cloud and mist in the Easterly flow.

I am sure this would be a very welcome change for many of us.

[Thundery wintry showers]

The weather outlook for next week has certainly changed since yesterday on the GFS/ECMWF thanks to the models positioning the North Sea low further east. This crucially allows the high to ridge further south across the country, so what was previously looking like a cool dry cloudy week in eastern areas now looks set to be warm and sunny with only eastern coastal areas prone to more in the way of cloud and cooler temperatures. The UKMO keeps the low closer by to the south and southeast which would promote cooler cloudier conditions more widely in eastern areas, but doesn't appear to have much ensemble support from GFS or ECMWF.

Before that, many of us are likely to have a grey day tomorrow, with some light drizzle, though maybe brighter and warmer in the south during the afternoon with some scattered thundery showers. Sunday looks likely to be a mainly dry cloudy day, but with some sunshine coming through in north-western Britain, and then during Monday and Tuesday the cloud dissipates in most parts of the country (unless the UKMO is to be believed) under the strengthening high with only a sluggish easterly or south-easterly airflow. East Anglia and the SE may hold onto the cloud for longest, but during the latter part of the week the SE should become sunny and warm while it will mainly be the NE that sees any low cloud. Low pressure might approach the west towards the end of next week bringing some rain to Ireland and possibly thundery showers to the SW, but that's a long way off and subject to change.

In summary a dry warm sunny spell looks highly likely for central and western parts of the country starting on Monday; less certain for eastern areas but still with a substantial chance of some warm sunshine inland from Tuesday onwards if GFS/ECMWF are near the mark.

[MisfitDog3]

SE corner looks to remain fairly windy into mid-week...well on at least a few of the models!

[The PIT]

Just outside the reliable time frame a bit of late spring/early summer could be on the cards. After a while winds swing more to the east which should bring the old problem of low cloud and coastal fog to the east. As ever the question will be how fast this burns off.