Model Output Discussion 14th May 2012 Onwards

[The PIT]

Well it's going to be interesting to see how much cloud we get off the north sea. Plenty of times in the past we've been forecast high temps only to be stuck with laden skies and temps low teens. Other times of course grey rubbish forecast but the sun got through. Deep FI has a return to winter.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO

High pressure all the way from Wednesday, the only blip will be the SE on Monday and maybe Tuesday where there could be a few showers untill the low clears into SE Europe

Edited May 19, 2012 by Gavin D

[Summer Sun]

12z Ensembles

Hardly any rain there for the forseeable future warm as well

Slightly wetter down south at times remain fairly mild though

ECM remains very settled and warm from mid week Tuesday is a bit up in the air atm it could be slightly more cloudy than we first thought but wednesday onwards looks great

Edited May 19, 2012 by Gavin D

[Milhouse]

What can i say about the ECM . Firstly it delays the onset of the easterly so Wednesday is looking like a day of plentiful sunshine and very light winds nationwide. Secondly, winds veer southeasterly later on as a renewed Azores high ridge moves north.

[Summer Sun]

ECM ends slightly less settled but we shall not worry about that yet it will most likely be gone on the next run and replaced by high pressure, plenty of lovely sunshine on offer for next week

Edited May 20, 2012 by reef
Stick to the models please Gavin

[summer blizzard]

Any signs of the -QBO weakening SB?

Updated monthly, historical analogues suggest the peak to be anytime between now and July.

[damianslaw]

Reliable timeframe - something of a marked pattern change from what we have endured since the start of April. High pressure back on the scene and very much a dry much warmer outlook for most (exception eastern coastal strip which tends to suffer from low cloud and murk from such set ups at this time of year thanks to the cold N Sea).

SE parts may struggle to see sunshine on Monday but by Tuesday most places should see some very lengthy spells of sunshine boosting temps into the high teens and low twenties - lovely late spring conditions, the kind I associate with a decent May and the kind which in my view makes this time of year the best time for pleasant weather - before the humid hazy stickiness that often sets in by late June.

ECM keen on maintaining strong heights to our NE through to the end of the week but with a keen easterly setting in becoming more southeasterly, UKMO would also show such a set up if it programmed through to the weekend. Longer term - very much dependent on how the azores high behaves, for this to be the start of a pronounced lengthy dry sunny warm spell, we need the azores high to ridge NW squeezing the trough aside, however, there are signs the jetstream will scupper this as it becomes more meridional again with a trough setting up to our east forcing heights to retrogress NW into time ensuring azores heights remain firmly anchored far to our SW.

In the meantime, after 7 weeks of changeable often very chilly cloudy wet weather, we have a warm sunny dry week ahead and it will quickly feel like summer has arrived rather than an at times delayed spring feel.

[reef]

Please stick to discussing what the models are showing and not bickering about what weather people should or shouldnt want at the time of year. Everyone has their own favourite weather and it would be a boring place if everyone wanted the same thing.

Thanks

[bluearmy]

The interaction of the Atlantic trough and the block looks very interesting and quite complex. Strong oomph into the upstream jet due to sharp gradients on 850's over north America isn't going to help keep the Atlantic completely quiet. Hence, the trough should have enough energy to play its part over the next couple of weeks. That could translate into a euro high and low heights over Greenland scenario but I rather doubt it.

[johnholmes]

More on this tomorrow when the 10 day check is due but just to show how good the 500mb charts can be

On the left is the predict on 10 May for today and on the right the actual 500mb heights at 00z this morning.

The prediction since about Tuesday has been for the trough north and south of the Uk to warm out and be replaced by a large upper ridge centred north or NNE of the UK to give the marked change in weather pattern. This is looking increasingly like happening so a very good prediction by these charts again.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO

High pressure dominates in the north all week, whilst the south could see some rain on Saturday thanks to low pressure over France

http://www.null/ds/ukmo.htm

ECM

High pressure dominates the very far south west may be prone to some rain deep in FI, but before then the easterly has been delayed now till Friday, what's the odds the easterly don't hapen

http://www.null/ds/ecm.htm

GFS

The easterly is also delayed to Friday, then pressure remains high for a good while early June is becomes lower but thats nothing to worry about yet as its 11 days away yet, very dry the the east too at first then very dry for the north east and Scotland

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[Thundery wintry showers]

Current model outputs are suggesting that the grey weather will hold on tomorrow over East Anglia and the southeast, and possibly as far north as Linconlshire, while other parts become dry and sunny with temperatures approaching 20C in the west.

With high pressure anchored close to the north and a sluggish easterly flow, most places will be dry sunny and warm on Tuesday and Wednesday- highs of 20-23C will be very widespread and 24 or 25C is possible locally. Eastern coastal areas will be cooler but still look like remaining dry and sunny.

The weather may change in eastern and southern Britain towards the end of the week as a moister easterly flow becomes established, increasing the chance of low cloud spreading inland off the North Sea, while some thundery showers may extend from the SW into some western/south-western areas, but most of Scotland and NW England should remain dry, sunny and warm regardless.

[J10]

The general pattern for next week looks established, but minor changes can/will make big local variations, especially to cloud amounts,

I am really hoping that next weekend locally will be sunny and more especially dry, at this stage it is impossible to say whether it will or not.

[shedhead]

Whilst the expected change to better conditions has not surprised me, I must say the speed and scale of the change has, with 25-27c looking possible across inland parts of the south later this week - how many of us would have called that possibility even 3 or 4 days ago?

.

Below is a chart from a hot spell in the infamous Summer of 76, showing a pattern not to dissimilar to what's expected to evolove this week, with the Jet running into Iberia.

Edited May 20, 2012 by shedhead

[Polar Maritime]

Yes temps looking very pleasant on Wednesday.

[Summer Sun]

GFS remains settled for the north untill the 29th, low pressure then takes over for a few days before another area of high pressure set's-up for the long bank holiday weekend

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm

[Deluxe]

GFS remains settled for the north untill the 29th, low pressure then takes over for a few days before another area of high pressure set's-up for the long bank holiday weekend

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Looking much cooler going into the beginning of June, but it's just out of the reliable time frame at the moment so I'm not getting worried just yet. Disappointing FI though, although it looks pretty uncertain it must be said (Greeny high is back though!)

Going back to next weekend - could be some lively showers in the south and southwest

[J10]

Looking much cooler going into the beginning of June, but it's just out of the reliable time frame at the moment so I'm not getting worried just yet. Disappointing FI though, although it looks pretty uncertain it must be said (Greeny high is back though!)

Going back to next weekend - could be some lively showers in the south and southwest

Why is the chance of storms for next weekend something to be considered good?

Given the bank holiday weekend and the Olympic Torch Relay, warm sunny weather is far more preferable.

[Deluxe]

Why is the chance of storms for next weekend something to be considered good?

Given the bank holiday weekend and the Olympic Torch Relay, warm sunny weather is far more preferable.

Sorry, that did slip my mind. Of course that wouldn't be good for the events on for the weekend It'll be hit and miss even if it does come off.

I was speaking from my personal preference for storms, even though the north-east won't get any!

[phil nw.]

A nice warm up with sunshine for this coming week then.

Midweek- say Tues.and Weds. could well be the warmest days as we are situated in a col(slack flow between 2 highs and 2 lows).

Low 20`s C for many i would think

Then the Easterly is modelled to set in later in the week as the newly formed Scandi. High exerts it`s influence.

This will freshen things up a bit with some possible mist or low cloud towards Eastern coasts at times,however it should still feel very pleasant for many inland.

Some signs of showery activity from low pressure to the south around the weekend.This may spread north into central areas later and give at least a temporary break in the settled conditions although it`s a little early to be sure on this.

[Summer Sun]

ECM remains consistant tonight

Edited May 20, 2012 by Gavin D

[J10]

Sorry, that did slip my mind. Of course that wouldn't be good for the events on for the weekend It'll be hit and miss even if it does come off.

I was speaking from my personal preference for storms, even though the north-east won't get any!

We can have the storms after a 2 week hot spell, [wishful thinking mode on]

Looking a tonight's models it does look as if the chance of showers for SW areas is towards the Sunday perhaps late Saturday, one to keep an eye on.

[Summer Sun]

End of ECM turns more unsettled to the south but the north would stay fine with high pressure over scotland

Edited May 20, 2012 by Gavin D

[Thundery wintry showers]

To be honest I didn't really see a lot wrong with what Hartle posted- he didn't emphasise a desire for storms, just mentioned the possibility and put a smiley face afterwards, while in the meantime various highly subjective posts have gone on at length about a desire for high pressure/settled weather without being pulled up for it. There is a rather large double standard there, reminiscent of some that arise during the winter months.

It does seem that the peak of the warm sunny weather will occur during Tuesday-Thursday with Wednesday perhaps the absolute peak day with highs of 20-23C widespread, and some areas possibly getting to 24-26C, which would provide a huge contrast with our recent weather. During Friday and into the weekend the warm sunshine will be eroded on two fronts, the easterlies bringing more in the way of cloud and cooler airmasses into eastern areas, and the possibility of thundery showers breaking out towards the south-west. Nonetheless I think western Scotland and north-west England in particular look odds-on to hold onto warm sunshine for the foreseeable future.

[J10]

To be honest I didn't really see a lot wrong with what Hartle posted- he didn't emphasise a desire for storms, just mentioned the possibility and put a smiley face afterwards, while in the meantime various highly subjective posts have gone on at length about a desire for high pressure/settled weather without being pulled up for it. There is a rather large double standard there, reminiscent of some that arise during the winter months.

You have missed the specific point here, he mentioned that there may be storms in south western areas this weekend, this weekend first of all is a bank holiday and more importantly locally sees the Olympic Torch Relay pass through, something that is likely never to happen again, I have got no problem with storms as mentioned in my following post, but for 2 days I would wish for dry and preferably sunny weather, at least for here.

There was no mention about settled weather as I know that annoys some people. I also did a nice reply to Hartle, in that he can have his desire for storms after we have some sunny warm weather, just not this weekend.

A slight overreaction to my comment me thinks.