Model Output Discussion 14th May 2012 Onwards

[Geordiesnow]

Just outside the reliable time frame a bit of late spring/early summer could be on the cards. After a while winds swing more to the east which should bring the old problem of low cloud and coastal fog to the east. As ever the question will be how fast this burns off.

I think we can say with a fair amount of confidence pressure will rise but there is disagreements on placement of the high therefore what weather we may get. Its fair to say you would assume the best of the sunshine will be in the West(away from the approaching weather front from that large Atlantic weather front) and with quite warm upper air temps, it will be very warm if not even slightly humid feel. The east will be more in line for low cloud especially on the coast but its a wait and see process I suppose.

All in all, an warmer and much less wet set up is in the offering for next week.

[Summer Sun]

High pressure on course to move in next week, just what we need

[I remember Atlantic 252]

High pressure on course to move in next week, just what we need

Not sure if that looks all that warm? NE wind, very prone to north sea misty low cloud, feel chilly in the midlands

[Milhouse]

ECM looking good so far. I have had to settle for the fact that the east coast will always see the coolest temperatures and the greater chance of mist and low cloud lingering. However as long as the wind stays easterly instead of northeasterly i am hopeful that we will see some decent cloud breaks. A northeasterly would bring endless low cloud and very cool temperatures over here.

[peterf]

any chance of a post saying LP is to retreat over the comming days?really is wearing thin now.

[PubliusEnigma]

High pressure on course to move in next week, just what we need

Wow that last chart, if it were in winter !!!

[Summer Sun]

ECM looking great so far

Warm uppers all week as well so in the sun temperatures could get to 25c for some

[lorenzo]

Some cracking charts on the ECM, that week of the fine weather for May trend just will not be broken even against all odds it seems.

Courtesy of Matt Hugo on Twitter - how is this for a summer seasonal anomaly prediction..

Wow..

[Hathers]

The Met office 6to15 day forecast looks great. Warm to possibly very Warm conditions. Also June looks to start settled as well. Bring on the heat wave lol

[Thundery wintry showers]

Some subtle changes on tonight's model runs. The GFS produces the warmest/sunniest scenario for next week with the cloudy weather retreating to southern England by Monday and being gone on Tuesday, leaving warm dry sunny weather for the vast majority, low cloud not really making significant inroads into eastern areas until Friday. However, I see that UKMO/ECMWF are showing a more pronounced easterly flow which may bring low cloud into some eastern areas by Wednesday/Thursday. There appears to be a reasonably strong consensus for dry sunny weather on Monday across the northern two-thirds of the country and almost nationwide on Tuesday before the easterly sets in.

A good setup for warmth/sun/dryness if you live in the west, though warmth and sunshine remains less certain the further east you are- if the UKMO/ECMWF verify then the Tyne and Wear area might be limited to just a couple of sunny and relatively warm days, whereas places like Manchester and Glasgow look favoured for at least 4-5 such days.

[Summer Sun]

Some cracking charts on the ECM, that week of the fine weather for May trend just will not be broken even against all odds it seems.

Courtesy of Matt Hugo on Twitter - how is this for a summer seasonal anomaly prediction..

Wow..

WOW! that is just what we want for a cracking summer, bring it on!

[I remember Atlantic 252]

UKMO 144 chart looks a certain Stafford north sea low cloud day, also if 4 months earlier, or 6 months later snowfest SE

[PubliusEnigma]

All eyes to the east as we enter next week, as a nasty looking low pressure threatens to bring cloud, wind and maybe a LOT of rain into the south east corner of England.

Will need to keep our eyes on this !!

[Milhouse]

ECM looking good so far. I have had to settle for the fact that the east coast will always see the coolest temperatures and the greater chance of mist and low cloud lingering. However as long as the wind stays easterly instead of northeasterly i am hopeful that we will see some decent cloud breaks. A northeasterly would bring endless low cloud and very cool temperatures over here.

And it looks like i get what i want from the ECM. High pressure remains to the east of the UK maintaining a continental easterly flow instead of a more cloudy northeasterly.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2161.html

[Methuselah]

I don't think I'd worry too much about that, PE...

[Summer Sun]

EC 32 dayer going for high pressure now to last into early June, tweeted by Matt Hugo

Definite shift in the EC 32 day fcst towards higher pressure late May/early June - However, low pressure returns towards mid-June at the mo!

ECM ends less settled, but high pressure is never far away

Edited May 18, 2012 by Gavin D

[Milhouse]

Some subtle changes on tonight's model runs. The GFS produces the warmest/sunniest scenario for next week with the cloudy weather retreating to southern England by Monday and being gone on Tuesday, leaving warm dry sunny weather for the vast majority, low cloud not really making significant inroads into eastern areas until Friday. However, I see that UKMO/ECMWF are showing a more pronounced easterly flow which may bring low cloud into some eastern areas by Wednesday/Thursday. There appears to be a reasonably strong consensus for dry sunny weather on Monday across the northern two-thirds of the country and almost nationwide on Tuesday before the easterly sets in.

A good setup for warmth/sun/dryness if you live in the west, though warmth and sunshine remains less certain the further east you are- if the UKMO/ECMWF verify then the Tyne and Wear area might be limited to just a couple of sunny and relatively warm days, whereas places like Manchester and Glasgow look favoured for at least 4-5 such days.

When i see an easterly in the models i can help think back to late May 2009 when East Yorkshire saw 3/4 days of unbroken sunshine and temperatures in the high teens. And that was from an easterly like what the ECM is showing. I suppose you are 100 miles further north so the wind has more of the North Sea to travel over so maybe its that which will make all the difference. Eastern Scotland in particular does look right in the firing line for some stubborn cloud judging by the ECM. We might escape the worst of it down here.

[ANYWEATHER]

From the gfs and ecm the forecast for next week will see a lot of fair weather during midweek for just about all, question is .How long will it last?? Both ecm and gfs show a breakdown from the SouthWest during next weekend?!

[Thundery wintry showers]

When i see an easterly in the models i can help think back to late May 2009 when East Yorkshire saw 3/4 days of unbroken sunshine and temperatures in the high teens. And that was from an easterly like what the ECM is showing. I suppose you are 100 miles further north so the wind has more of the North Sea to travel over so maybe its that which will make all the difference. Eastern Scotland in particular does look right in the firing line for some stubborn cloud judging by the ECM. We might escape the worst of it down here.

I reckon that it's going to be pretty hard to pin down the amount of low cloud that we get, even close to the time. I recall that the first halves of Mays 2000 and 2001 both had persistent east to north-easterly winds- the 2000 instance was dull and dry with warm nights here but the 2001 one was exceptionally sunny. I remember a stark contrast in May 2008 when the second week had easterly winds and warm sunshine even along the Tyne and Wear coast, but the second half had persistent low cloud even in East Anglia and the SE (I remember this as I was in Norwich at the time).

I recall that in the late May/early June 2009 I was able to predict the onset of low cloud using the GFS humidity outputs, which suggested that humidity would be too low over the North Sea for widespread cloud generation until after the 2nd, and it then projected a more humid airmass spreading in on the 3rd. The result in Tyneside was that it was sunny and quite warm until the 2nd June and then the low cloud did indeed arrive on the 3rd. Using the same forecasting method the GFS is suggesting largely cloudless skies near the east coast during Monday to Thursday next week, although I think the GFS is likely to fall into line with UKMO/ECMWF which will probably change that assessment.

[Methuselah]

Doesn't it also depend on the SST, Ian? It 'should' be warmer than it was at the same time in the last two years...

[J10]

Of course that FAX chart is 24 hrs of date, being T+120 for Next Tuesday, so issued 12Hz yesterday.

[Aaron]

FWIW, here in Leeds, late May/early June 2009 had easterly winds here and it was warm and sunny with temperatures reaching 30 degrees on the 1st of June..

[Alex]

I reckon that it's going to be pretty hard to pin down the amount of low cloud that we get, even close to the time. I recall that the first halves of Mays 2000 and 2001 both had persistent east to north-easterly winds- the 2000 instance was dull and dry with warm nights here but the 2001 one was exceptionally sunny. I remember a stark contrast in May 2008 when the second week had easterly winds and warm sunshine even along the Tyne and Wear coast, but the second half had persistent low cloud even in East Anglia and the SE (I remember this as I was in Norwich at the time).

I recall that in the late May/early June 2009 I was able to predict the onset of low cloud using the GFS humidity outputs, which suggested that humidity would be too low over the North Sea for widespread cloud generation until after the 2nd, and it then projected a more humid airmass spreading in on the 3rd. The result in Tyneside was that it was sunny and quite warm until the 2nd June and then the low cloud did indeed arrive on the 3rd. Using the same forecasting method the GFS is suggesting largely cloudless skies near the east coast during Monday to Thursday next week, although I think the GFS is likely to fall into line with UKMO/ECMWF which will probably change that assessment.

Essex and Kent seem to mostly do ok under easterlies, yes sometimes there is some low cloud around in the morning up to 10/11am but generally 90% of days start or become sunny, I would assume this is because of the little stretch of sea compared to other Eastern areas? For example the spells in the May 2008 & 2009 had nil cloudy days in the anticyclonic spells from low cloud in Chelmsford.

Edited May 18, 2012 by Alex

[A Winter's Tale]

I've not had a look at the models in a while and it's great to hear that we could be seeing some sunny and warm weather at long last. About time we got something like that. But what I'd like to know is whether this anti-cyclone will bring sunshine to most areas of the UK without the same old story of northern and western parts missing out and what sort of temperatures could be expected if current charts are to happen.

Thanks.

[Milhouse]

I've not had a look at the models in a while and it's great to hear that we could be seeing some sunny and warm weather at long last. About time we got something like that. But what I'd like to know is whether this anti-cyclone will bring sunshine to most areas of the UK without the same old story of northern and western parts missing out and what sort of temperatures could be expected if current charts are to happen.

Thanks.

I think we can safely assume that northern and western parts will see the lions share of the sunshine. I would say that jugding by the ECM for Friday next week Western Scotland could well be looking at 25c. Maybe a 26c somewhere in the west country.