Model Output Discussion 14th May 2012 Onwards

[Summer Sun]

Tonight's Ensembles

[Costa Del Fal]

All eyes to the east as we enter next week, as a nasty looking low pressure threatens to bring cloud, wind and maybe a LOT of rain into the south east corner of England.

Will need to keep our eyes on this !!

If you stopped cherry picking charts and looked at the whole run and other models available you will know the Low will have little if any effect on the UK next week. High pressure will be firmly developing over the UK and into the North Sea next week. The Low which will stay to the SE will help push in the warmer uppers before slipping away to Central Europe.

Sorry PE but please take into account the wider context and other models before making rather thoughtless but wind up style posts. I wish to say no more on the matter but for newbies, this must be highlighted as its very misleading.

Still, next week really is shaping up to be very pleasant as per pretty much all models. Cloud amounts in the East will vary. It could affect Central zones overnight but the strong May sun should soon work it away. Snow? norfolk n chance, I know Stafford hardly has the best reputation up there for cloud but our region should do pretty well this upcoming week. Temperatures quite widely 18-23c over the coming week also, and I think we could be pushing 25c at times. Something to watch. ECM ends with High Pressure weakening but no signs as of yet of chilly Northerlies etc returning but this is way into FI right now.

[damianslaw]

Some promising late spring fayre on offer from the models tonight. All models support the build of heights to our NE as the trough squeezes and splits.

Whilst the weekend looks a rather drab affair with yet again dissapointing temperatures and lack of sunshine, as we head through next week it looks like an increasingly warmer sunnier and drier affair especially for western parts which will probably see the best amounts of sunshine and therefore temps- a typical late spring set up it has to be said, better late than never..

Late May can be the best time of year in the NW, often much better than the summer holiday period. Its the best time to visit the Highlands.

[Cloud 10]

any chance of a post saying LP is to retreat over the comming days?really is wearing thin now.

Another day of rain/drizzle/single figure temps to endure tomorrow,then a drying up/warming up trend

as we head into the start of next week.

LP is to retreat

[AWD]

We can but hope!

Just goes to show though there is plenty of time for Summer to arrive yet!

[peterf]

of course there is the swallows have only just arrived up here.

[Jason T]

To hell with it, This post will get deleted. WOOOOOOHOOOOO. Summer. So many times popped in here to see a post that states (from a knowledge'd) ONE. The heat is on.... JH is the one, The key is the 500 anomolies its the weather bible, if no real change is shown its the same old same old,If he spots a change then its HAPPY days,Depending on what we are all looking for. I would very much so take the pattern from present to past, as it can only be a bonus. To be honest FI,Driving me nuts as all to play for but no cigar. As of now everything to play for, ....Loving the post's.GP you are an eastwing well balanced. Goodwork.

JT

[Bottesford]

^ Glad I'm not the only one been on the sauce tonight! (and high on the joy of incoming warm sunshine).

But yeah now back them models from now on... 18Z on its way but will it have drank as much as we have?

[ribster]

Most confused by the model output this evening, fancy, just 12 days from the start of Summer, they show some sunshine and warmth? Most unusual!

[Timmytour]

Just watched the BBC forecast and it plays down how heavy the rain in the South East is for sunday. Yet GFS has consistently been showing, for a few days now, a pretty heavy spell of rain coming up from the south for the South East. A few days ago i thought it would interfere with my plans to play cricket tomorrow but now it looks like hitting over the early hours of sunday. But it looks a lot more intense on GFS than shows up on the BBC charts.

[Timmytour]

I appreciate the thing with PE might run deeper, but I can't see why his comments on the South East potentially getting a lot of rain on sunday should attract criticism....

Edited May 18, 2012 by Timmytour

[Summer Sun]

Cracking 00z high pressure is with us just about all the way

http://www.jp2webdes...o.uk/ds/gfs.htm

Much drier than of late

UKMO very settled, high pressure dominates

http://www.null/ds/ukmo.htm

ECM as above

http://www.null/ds/ecm.htm

Its about time we had this, just what we need

[Weather Boy]

I think that looking at the three main models HP in charge for at least this week once the SE gets any rain out of the way tomorrow, possibly even into Monday. Quite breezy in the latter half of the week from the Midlands southwards and I don't know if that will bring some North Sea cloud.

Just one point: is it not quite unusual for HP cells over Scandi and the Azores to link up in this way as they are forecast to do? With all models showing it, I'm not really doubting it, but it's not something I recall seeing often before.

[Thundery wintry showers]

It's not that unusual, especially at this time of year when the jetstream over the Atlantic is traditionally at its weakest. It is less common in July and August when we are more likely to have a train of low pressure systems tracking to the north of Britain.

Looking favourable for a warm dry sunny spell for a large majority of us between Monday and Wednesday of next week- even eastern coastal areas don't look like seeing much in the way of low cloud, and temperatures getting into the low to mid teens there, while approaching 20C in central and western parts of the country.

Re. the stronger easterly at the end of the week, cloud amounts will be sensitive to wind direction. NE England looks likely to see cloud spilling in, whereas in East Anglia and south-east England it depends on whether the wind direction is north of east (if it is we can expect cloud, if not, it will probably remain sunny). For the west, staying sunny and warm until at least Thursday/Friday.

[Pennine Ten Foot Drifts]

Summer's coming at last !!! Comparative to the last six weeks next week is a dramatic change. Whilst we may not be talking about a real scorcher there's every possibility of sheltered spots in the west hitting mid-high twenties by mid-week. And the extended outlook has a much more pleasant outlook at least in terms of temperatures on both GFS and ECM, so hopefully we've seen the back of north/north-easterly polar sourced air until at least the end of May, (and hopefully a lot longer than that !)

Edited May 19, 2012 by Pennine Ten Foot Drifts

[TonyH]

Weather guide (specific regions only) for the coming week based on recent trends and latest model output:

http://forum.netweat...lands-specific/

Edited May 19, 2012 by TonyH

[TonyH]

Looking favourable for a warm dry sunny spell for a large majority of us between Monday and Wednesday of next week- even eastern coastal areas don't look like seeing much in the way of low cloud, and temperatures getting into the low to mid teens there, while approaching 20C in central and western parts of the country.

Almost certainly an understatement! 23c progged by GFS in places, so 25 or 26c a possibility I should imagine.

Edited May 19, 2012 by TonyH

[Scorcher]

Almost certainly an understatement! 23c progged by GFS in places, so 25 or 26c a possibility I should imagine.

Yes I imagine we will see 23c being quite widespread in western areas by midweek going by GFS and somewhere like western Wales could well see 25c or higher.

[Summer Sun]

Looking warm and much drier than of late on the ensembles

[Hathers]

The Daily Express are reporting a long hot summer to come. Does anybody know if there are indications that this could happen??

[Ian Ballinger]

The Daily Express are reporting a long hot summer to come. Does anybody know if there are indications that this could happen??

If they are reporting it, then it will be a washout

[Summer Sun]

The Daily Express are reporting a long hot summer to come. Does anybody know if there are indications that this could happen??

They reported that winter was going to last to mid June just a short while back and they have cursed that, I hope they aint cursed the summer we are well over due a hot one.

[summer blizzard]

Looks to me as if summer for central and western areas will arrive Wednesday, high pressure looks like being near the UK afterward so it could last a while.

[Alex]

Looks to me as if summer for central and western areas will arrive Wednesday, high pressure looks like being near the UK afterward so it could last a while.

Any signs of the -QBO weakening SB?

[Summer Sun]

GFS ends unsettled tonight but it will be interesting to see if there is any support from the ensembles for this

http://www.null/ds/gfs.htm