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Uk Convective General Discussion & Forecasts - May 2012 Part 3

Jane Louise
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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

SkyWarn forecast from this morning:

SKYWARN UK SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #022

ISSUED: 1030UTC MONDAY 28TH MAY 2012 (GB/SM)

SKYWARN UK HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING REGIONS:

SOUTH-EAST ENGLAND

IN EFFECT FROM 1030UTC MONDAY 28TH MAY 2012 UNTIL 2359 MONDAY 28TH MAY 2012

COLD FRONT PUSHING NORTH EAST THROUGH ENGLAND INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES AND HIGH INSTABILITY

THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER AFFECTING THE INDICATED REGIONS IN THE TIME PERIOD SPECIFIED. THREATS WITHIN THIS WATCH INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO:

LIGHTNING...HAIL...HEAVY RAIN...LOCALISED FLOODING

DISCUSSION:

COLD FRONT MOVING NE INTO HIGH TEMPERATURES AND RESULTING HIGH INSTABILITY IS LIKELY TO CAUSE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH BOTH LLS AND DLS IS WEAK TO ALMOST NON-EXISTENT SOME OROGRAPHIC FORCING WILL HELP TO PROMOTE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

UHI EFFECT TOWARDS THE SOUTH-EAST IS EXPECTED TO PLAY A LARGE PART IN TODAYS DEVELOPMENTS AND A CONVERGENCE ZONE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THUNDERSTORMS HERE. WITH LIGHT WINDS + LITTLE SHEAR, THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO BE SLOW MOVING, COUPLED WITH PW VALUES >2.8CM LOCALISED FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

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Suburban Streamer Explorer

Suburban Streamer

Posted
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms & all extreme weather
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
Posted

Big towers going up to my e/ne. So far my location seems to be cooking up some great towers and sending them all east

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

And yet nothing from estofex...

Their forecasters must be on holiday :( Darn.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted
zsfclcldif.curr.1600lst.d2.png
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Team Jo Accomplished

Team Jo

Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
Posted

Very hazy now, clouds over to the West looking almost battleship grey.....

So it begins!

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Hammer Aficionado

Hammer

Posted
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
  • Location: Sawbridgeworth, Hertfordshire
Posted

Little bit of activity just west of Tilbury, Essex on the latest 2.30pm radar. Which seems about right when you then look at visable sat.

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swash Rookie

swash

Posted
  • Location: Epping by day/Bexley by night
  • Location: Epping by day/Bexley by night
Posted

something popping up on the radar near Dartford

They're under starters orders............

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Carl46Wrexham Rising Star

Carl46Wrexham

Posted
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and thunderstorms
  • Location: Wrexham, North East Wales 80m asl
Posted

Strong surface convergence looking at the wind observations/ Sea breeze from the North Welsh coast clashing directly with a S/SWly gradient drift, would appear to explain the convection firing North East Wales area.

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Tom Montalbano Maestro

Tom Montalbano

Posted
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snowy Weather
  • Location: Lee, London. SE12, 41 mts. 134.5 ft asl.
Posted (edited)

I would agree with S.S from Barnet, similar scenario here in S.E.London. Some towers developing and drifting slowly NE.

I would suggest N and E of London, if any storms do develop, look the favoured areas down here.

Regards,

Tom.

Edited by TomSE20
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Team Jo Accomplished

Team Jo

Posted
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Sun, Deep Snow, Convective Goodness, Anvil Crawlers
  • Location: Hilversum, Netherlands
Posted

That would be what I can see outside, looking west towards London.

Ooh!

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

permission to get a tad excited?! clapping.gif

Excited for you!

How id love a proper storm potential! So jelly right now!

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liambailey09 Rookie

liambailey09

Posted
  • Location: Stevenage, Herts
  • Location: Stevenage, Herts
Posted (edited)

Something more substantial developing just to my west. Perfect view out one of my upstairs windows, shame I don't have a camera to get a time lapse!

Showing up on radar now

Edited by liambailey09
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Robbie Garrett Seasoned

Robbie Garrett

Posted
  • Location: London, UK
  • Weather Preferences: MCC/MCS Thunderstorms
  • Location: London, UK
Posted

Some decent TCU towards my east, the ones I took a picture of earlier are now massive towers.....**** SAKE!!

Because now to my west it's pretty much just high cloud, and nothing else behind on satellite. Sorry to sound disappointing, but I hope that's not it.....

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Neilsouth Experienced

Neilsouth

Posted
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Storms and Snow
  • Location: Home near Sellindge, 80m/250feet, 5miles from Coast
Posted

Cell popping up over dartford way :D

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Request for pictures:

Whilst I know your all really excited, Can I ask that should you get an awesome storm / hail / flooding. Grab some pics and keep us in the loop :)

No one loves pictures of hell breaking loose more than the people in this thread.

;) Good luck yall.

Fyi.

Its like 27c here and crystal clear.

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Coast Veteran

Coast

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
  • Location: Eastbourne, East Sussex (work in Mid Sussex)
Posted

I think if we see anything today, the MCS Propagation chart from GFS highlights the areas of interest in red:

gfs_pw_eur12.png

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Mapantz Maestro

Mapantz

Posted
  • Location: Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: warehamwx.co.uk
  • Location: Dorset
Posted

Request for pictures:

No one loves pictures of hell breaking loose more than the people in this thread.

Totally! A picture is about as close as i'll come to a storm. lol

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geg1992 Rookie

geg1992

Posted
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Severe thunderstorms, Heavy snow
  • Location: Ipswich, Suffolk, UK
Posted

I think if we see anything today, the MCS Propagation chart from GFS highlights the areas of interest in red:

I'm just about included in the area so fingers crossed! Need to see more development first though!

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DAVID SNOW Veteran

DAVID SNOW

Posted
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
  • Location: Near Romford Essex.
Posted

BBC News24 seemed to be circumspect about t/storm risk ... although it was said that there was a 'heavy thunderstorm' risk ....

Possibly, the weak cold front?

I guess so,the UHI Effect playing its part now.

Nice cell gone up to the East of London,as Tom says East and North of town looking good ATM.

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D-J-V Rookie

D-J-V

Posted
  • Location: South West London
  • Weather Preferences: Stormy
  • Location: South West London
Posted

Might chase these after work! blum.gif

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Suburban Streamer Explorer

Suburban Streamer

Posted
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow, thunderstorms & all extreme weather
  • Location: Barnet/south Herts border 130m asl
Posted

I think if we see anything today, the MCS Propagation chart from GFS highlights the areas of interest in red:

gfs_pw_eur12.png

I'll take that!

For now tho things seems to be organising themselves in line with the metoffice warning area. Early days of course :)

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Lynxus Aficionado

Lynxus

Posted
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and thundery or Cold and snowy.
  • Location: Abbeymead ,Glos Member Since: July 16, 2003
Posted

Wow, Those power showers are really getting going daaamn quick!

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StormyLincs Enthusiast

StormyLincs

Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost, thunderstorms and sunny summer days.
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
Posted

another cell just popping up north-east of rugby. good luck all those in the firing line!

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