Winter Forecast! - He's At It Again...

[Nick L]

Quite agree with you.

What I don't understand is why some LRFs are rubbished as soon as they appear yet others are treated like the second coming.

The people who praised the netweather summer forecast (on June 1st) the highest are, by and large, the ones moaning about the summer weather the loudest.

Doesn't quite equate somehow.

The style of forecasts and the reaction to feedback have a bearing on it though. The likes of Corbyn for example - he is very reluctant to delve into his methods and reasoning. That's the sign of a poor scientist, you can't just say "this is going to happen" and not give concise reasoning for your prediction. And then there's this one with Madden, people question his forecast (nothing wrong with that I'm sure you will agree) yet he refuses to publish the comments.

People have a lot of respect for GP and his forecasts because he extensively goes into the reasons why he thinks x will happen and when, as well as allowing full feedback on this forum. If the forecast is going wrong he also says why his forecast isn't going to plan.

If Corbyn and Madden did the same as GP, they would gain more respect, but because they don't and they frequently move the goalposts and refuse to acknowledge when they go wrong, they are derided and ignored by people (well, those who don't work with the tabloids of course).

[DAVID SNOW]

The style of forecasts and the reaction to feedback have a bearing on it though. The likes of Corbyn for example - he is very reluctant to delve into his methods and reasoning. That's the sign of a poor scientist, you can't just say "this is going to happen" and not give concise reasoning for your prediction. And then there's this one with Madden, people question his forecast (nothing wrong with that I'm sure you will agree) yet he refuses to publish the comments.

People have a lot of respect for GP and his forecasts because he extensively goes into the reasons why he thinks x will happen and when, as well as allowing full feedback on this forum. If the forecast is going wrong he also says why his forecast isn't going to plan.

If Corbyn and Madden did the same as GP, they would gain more respect, but because they don't and they frequently move the goalposts and refuse to acknowledge when they go wrong, they are derided and ignored by people (well, those who don't work with the tabloids of course).

People have a lot of respect for GP here at netweather, but that dont pay the bills.

Corbyn and Madden are there to make money,not gain respect.

[Methuselah]

People have a lot of respect for GP here at netweather, but that dont pay the bills.

Corbyn and Madden are there to make money,not gain respect.

Are you suggesting that they are both charlatans?

[bobbydog]

Quite agree with you.

What I don't understand is why some LRFs are rubbished as soon as they appear yet others are treated like the second coming.

The people who praised the netweather summer forecast (on June 1st) the highest are, by and large, the ones moaning about the summer weather the loudest.

Doesn't quite equate somehow.

i think many people fail to realise that LRF'S are really just a punt at the most likely seasonal weather scenario which may develop from current weather patterns. most forecasters include the caveats of 'low confidence' or 'more likely'. i've never seen professional forecasters claim that any given scenario will happen. professionals also realise that you cannot give forecasts with any credibility, more than a season in advance. they usually include the reasons for their forecasts also. unfortunately those who fail to realise these facts are those who are also the first to jump on the met office bashing bandwagon, when it proves inaccurate. weather forecasting is still a developing science, but some think that the met office, or any other professional forecasting service, are weather gods who should know it all. (hence the praise beforehand)

some 'forecasters' however, claim to be able to forecast the weather with relative accuracy (and a high degree of arrogance), at 6 months out or more! loosely basing their claims on 'sunspot activity', volcanoes etc, without giving any real scientific insights into their methods. they then either ignore or pour scorn on anyone who dares to question these 'methods'.

even when they are blatantly wrong, they try to use specific, localised weather incidents to justify their 'accuracy'

on the occasion they happen to be correct (and even a stopped clock is right twice a day), the arrogance then becomes unbearable.

this is why the likes of madden and corbyn consistently fail to gain the respect of the larger part of the 'weather community'.

i hope this helps to answer your question.

[bobbydog]

People have a lot of respect for GP here at netweather, but that dont pay the bills.

Corbyn and Madden are there to make money,not gain respect.

actually, GP works for a professional forecasting service and therefore is here to make money (he's not just an amateur forum member!) but he explains his methods in detail and admits when he gets it wrong.

madden however, is an amateur and does not make money from his forecasts. he's basically an amateur attention seeker

Edited July 8, 2012 by bobbydog

[Nick L]

People have a lot of respect for GP here at netweather, but that dont pay the bills.

Corbyn and Madden are there to make money,not gain respect.

But that's not the question I was answering. I was answering the question "why are some LRFs ignored". I agree with you that the latter 2 are just headline seekers.

[Methuselah]

Aye, there's a world of difference between the types of LRFs that are put-out by, for example, GP, Joe B, TWS, and those in the 'amateur' mould. The former explain their reasoning with the use of diagrams and succinct scientific terminology; the latter do not: How often, for example, have either the MetO or GP or TWS resorted to ad hoc (verging on the occult?) excuses, when the weather doesn't live up to their expectations?

If things truly are 'unforeseeable' (sun-spots, magnetic loops, solar sausages, and the like) how can they be used as terrestrial weather-forecasting tools? IMO, until such epistemological questions are answered, those who vaunt them should be treated with the utmost suspicion...

[Ladyofthestorm]

Utter nonsense, afterall we have not come out of 2011-2012 winter mode here yet!!!

Gingle Bells!

[laserguy]

Aye, there's a world of difference between the types of LRFs that are put-out by, for example, GP, Joe B, TWS, and those in the 'amateur' mould.

When all's said and done, shouldn't they all be judged entirely on their success rate - (of which I haven't the faintest idea!) so I'm taking no sides whatsoever!

[Nick L]

When all's said and done, shouldn't they all be judged entirely on their success rate - (of which I haven't the faintest idea!) so I'm taking no sides whatsoever!

I don't think success rate is entirely the story. In terms of who to believe, I suppose it is the strongest factor. But in terms of being a respected forecaster, I would say a clear explanation of your methods and positive response to constructive feedback are just as important. Which is why Corbyn and Madden are lampooned on this forum.

[DAVID SNOW]

actually, GP works for a professional forecasting service and therefore is here to make money (he's not just an amateur forum member!) but he explains his methods in detail and admits when he gets it wrong.

madden however, is an amateur and does not make money from his forecasts. he's basically an amateur attention seeker

How do you know Madden makes no money from his forecasts?

Any proof of this?

[jethro]

A question from a complete thicko when it comes to reading models and predicting weather.....

Will the apparent lack of any noticeably summer weather this year have an impact upon SST's around our shores? If so, what (if any) impact will this have on winter?

[Keraunic]

Does anyone remember Mr Foggit the old guy who used to predict the weather on Yorkshire TV years ago? He was never right.

Edited July 9, 2012 by Keraunophile

[Bogman]

Does anyone remember Mr Foggit the old guy who used to predict the weather on Yorkshire TV years ago?

Why, is it you....................?

[Keraunic]

Cheeky devil. No, he died yonks ago. I'm still very much extant.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A question from a complete thicko when it comes to reading models and predicting weather.....

Will the apparent lack of any noticeably summer weather this year have an impact upon SST's around our shores? If so, what (if any) impact will this have on winter?

The southerly tracking jet is has already influenced the SSTs near us.

The clarity of the effect is quite remarkable, how the more southerly jet stream, and thus more southerly depression and blocking out more of the sun and causing ssts to be low than average. Then the extra high pressure and clear skies have allowed ssts to warm up around Greenland.

As for the winter, the current SST chart shows a warm-cold-warm patten from Greenland down to the tropics, which is known as a tripole.

Some link this tripole pattern to a winter variations in the winter NAO, but I'm sure someone with more knowledge can explain that in more detail and make some predictions.

[Steve C]

Does anyone remember Mr Foggit the old guy who used to predict the weather on Yorkshire TV years ago? He was never right.

Yes, the problem being he got one forecast correct (as far as I know) in the early to mid 1980's. It was during a snowy spell (I was a paperboy at the time and I remember reading my customers' papers, so can recall the event and its rough timing. ) The BBC and others, presumably via the Met Office, predicted a continuation of the cold spell, but he said a thaw was imminent. Unfortunately it transpired that he was correct. Being a huge self publicist, he milked that one.

I then remember noting all his yearly forecasts etc. afterwards and, like you say, they were invariably a pile of poo. He'd always conveniently forget how poor his previous forecasts were, by the time of issuing his next one though.

Edited July 9, 2012 by The Föhns

[Snowmadsam]

What, no forecast for Winter 2013/2014??? Light weight!!!!!

I know! Totally unacceptable...I have already started on my Winter 2015/2016 forecast! hahaha

[Methuselah]

How do you know Madden makes no money from his forecasts?

Any proof of this?

So what, if he does? Corbyn sells his efforts too. Doesn't make them right, though...

[UV-RAY]

The southerly tracking jet is has already influenced the SSTs near us.

The clarity of the effect is quite remarkable, how the more southerly jet stream, and thus more southerly depression and blocking out more of the sun and causing ssts to be low than average. Then the extra high pressure and clear skies have allowed ssts to warm up around Greenland.

As for the winter, the current SST chart shows a warm-cold-warm patten from Greenland down to the tropics, which is known as a tripole.

Some link this tripole pattern to a winter variations in the winter NAO, but I'm sure someone with more knowledge can explain that in more detail and make some predictions.

The tripole you refer to is consistent with a +NAO for the coming winter, whether this signature remains come winter is open to question. If only LR forecasting were that easy.

[bobbydog]

How do you know Madden makes no money from his forecasts?

Any proof of this?

actually he has (only very) recently started trying to make money through advertising on his website and by attempting to sell his winter forecast for £11 to anyone gullible/curious/stupid enough to do so. even though he has already published it and now hidden it, he states he will release it to the public later in the year anyway. none of his short range forecasts are 'for sale' so he's hardly providing a professional service to business and industry as netweather does. he's just trying to make a quick buck out of sensationalism

have a look for youself- http://www.exactaweather.com/Home_Page.html

also myself and others on this forum have politely questioned his forecasting methods via his guestbook. - you won't find our comments on there.... funny that....

Edited July 9, 2012 by bobbydog

[BornFromTheVoid]

The tripole you refer to is consistent with a +NAO for the coming winter, whether this signature remains come winter is open to question. If only LR forecasting were that easy.

If it was too easy we'd miss out on all the speculative fun.

Also, imagine if after a mild, wet summer you knew that you were facing a mild, snowless winter? I think depression would become an issue for many on here!

[feb1991blizzard]

actually, GP works for a professional forecasting service and therefore is here to make money (he's not just an amateur forum member!) but he explains his methods in detail and admits when he gets it wrong.

madden however, is an amateur and does not make money from his forecasts. he's basically an amateur attention seeker

Whilst i dont really rate Madden, the fact that he is ameteur does not make him poor, its his lack of reasoning or using the same reasoning that has previously failed and as far as i am aware, chionomaniac is not a pro but his knowledge of teleconnections and particularly the stratosphere is absolutely suberb, having said that i could fully understand if someone had developed a succesfull method for seasonal forecasting that they might not want to release their methods straight away for fear of people stealing their work when they could end up making money in the long run. If i was to write a seasonal forecast 4 times a year on the Netweather forum for the next 5 years and have a strike rate of pure chance or just better than pure chance and not give reasoning i would not expect to be taken seriously, however if i was to outperform all the experts consistently over a period of time then i would expect some respect, whether i reveal my methodology or not so in some circumstances the ends is king and not the means.

[summer blizzard]

The tripole you refer to is consistent with a +NAO for the coming winter, whether this signature remains come winter is open to question. If only LR forecasting were that easy.

Completely disagree, that tripole pattern is near perfect for a -NAO.

[Met4Cast]

The way the QBO will go with the state the NAO is going may not bode well for a cold winter. Both Madden and Corbyn have ignored the MEI/PDO and gone for their wild guesses based on solar/lunar output and they have acted like flaming trolls towards us on this well respected forum site. They annoy me and I am not going to give them any benefit of the doubt as there is none. The UKMO are not perfect and have floundered on a number of forecasts, but their 6-15 day forecasts are generally very impressive.

I'm not starting trouble.. but wasn't the QBO pretty much perfect for cold as we went into last winter? In fact, I seem to remember pretty much everyone talking about how all the factors were pointing to a cold winter.. Turned out to be almost snowless