Hurricane Isaac

[Eskimo]

https://www.tropical...namic/main.html

http://dsc.discovery...ve-tracker.html

should make things interesting now saying it a cat 1

I think that's the projection that it may become a cat 1 in the next 24 hours, latest readings suggest that is has sustained winds of 60 knots, 4 knots shy of hurricane status.

[Coast]

More current thinking:

Tropical Storm ISAAC: Probability of Cat 1 or above winds to 45 hours lead

Tropical Storm ISAAC: Probability of tropical storm winds to 45 hours lead

Tropical Storm ISAAC: Modelled wind field at 33 hours lead

http://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/

[Coast]

Looks like there is good probability of a storm surge of 4ft and slightly less chance for heights above that:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at4+shtml/031330.shtml?gm_psurge=

[Coast]

Starting to hunker down now:

Isaac to make landfall as hurricane on eve of Katrina anniversary

* Gulf coast residents brace for storm, many evacuate

* Storm may test post-Katrina flood control system

NEW ORLEANS, Aug 28 (Reuters) - Tropical Storm Isaac had nearly reached hurricane strength as it bore down on the U.S. Gulf Coast on Tuesday and appeared to be taking direct aim at New Orleans, almost seven years to the day since the Crescent City was devastated by Hurricane Katrina. Isaac's swirling winds and rain will pose a major test of the region's new flood control systems, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. The center's forecasts showed the storm likely to make landfall late on Tuesday near southeastern Louisiana.

"Isaac is likely to become a hurricane later today. Additional strengthening is forecast until the center moves inland," the center said in its 4 a.m. CDT (0900 GMT) advisory. Rain and tropical storm force winds were expected to spread into the region in the coming hours, bringing the threat of storm surge and flooding. Isaac had New Orleans in its sights as the city still struggles to recover from Hurricane Katrina which swept across it almost exactly 7 years ago on Aug. 29, 2005, killing more than 1,800 people and causing billions of dollars of damage.

Authorities urged thousands of residents in low-lying areas to evacuate, warning the storm could flood towns and cities in at least three U.S. Gulf Coast states with a storm surge of up to 12 feet (3.6 metres). Isaac also threatened heavy rainfall, with possibly as much as 18 inches (46 cms) in areas, potentially triggering flooding in some coastal areas. Residents in coastal communities from Louisiana to Mississippi stocked up on food and water and tried to secure their homes, cars and boats. In New Orleans, a bumper-to-bumper stream of vehicles left the city on a highway toward Baton Rouge in search of higher ground. Others prepared, or were forced, to ride the storm out.

The storm was forecast to strengthen into a Category 1 hurricane, the lowest on the Saffir-Simpson scale, with top winds of 90 miles per hour (145 kph). While that would be well below the intensity of Katrina, a Category 3 storm, the size of Isaac's slow-moving system has forecasters predicting widespread flooding. "Even if it is a tropical storm at landfall, the large size of it will still generate significant storm surge," Hurricane Center Director Rick Knabb told reporters. "That is life-threatening potentially." Along Canal Street in New Orleans' historic French Quarter, crews were boarding up the windows of stores and businesses.

"I'm not all that concerned about the storm. It's still a Category 1," said Charles Neeley, a 69-year-old contractor overseeing workers covering the windows of a CVS drugstore. "We usually ride out ones and twos, and get the hell out for threes and fours." Nonetheless, Neeley said he had stocked up on food and water at home and fuel for his generator. "Our flights were canceled so we're going to be here," said Karen Foley, a 23-year-old tourist who had planned to travel home to New Jersey with a friend. "We are just hoping the city doesn't get hit again. It doesn't deserve it."

Isaac was centered 125 miles (205 km) southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River with top sustained winds of 70 miles per hour (110 kph) - a speed that places the storm very near hurricane status - and swirling northwest at 12 mph (19 kph). The storm was more than 400 miles (645 km) wide. Craig Fugate, director of the Federal Emergency Management Agency, said the worst effects may well be in Mississippi and Alabama. Isaac killed at least 22 people and caused significant flooding and damage in Haiti and the Dominican Republic before skirting the southern tip of Florida on Sunday.

BEFORE THE FLOOD

After Katrina, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers built a $14.5 billion defense flood system of walls, floodgates, levees and pumps designed to protect the city against a massive tidal surge like the one that swamped New Orleans in Katrina's wake. In low-lying Plaquemines Parish, which could be the first to be lashed by Isaac's winds and storm surge, workers scrambled to stack sandbags and reinforce levees as Isaac lurked in the Gulf. Much of the parish lies outside the greater New Orleans levee system, and construction projects to bolster protection are not yet complete.

"We're really worried about the storm surge. We really need a few more years before we see an event like this," said Plaquemines Parish President Billy Nungesser. Energy companies evacuated offshore oil rigs and shut down U.S. Gulf Coast refineries as the storm threatened to batter the oil refining belt. Oil firms ferried workers in helicopters from oil platforms hundreds of miles offshore in the Gulf of Mexico. As a precaution, as of Monday afternoon, the energy industry had shut down 78 percent of Gulf of Mexico crude production and 48 percent of its natural gas production, government figures showed. Despite the threat to the U.S. offshore oil patch, which produces about 23 percent of the country's oil output and 7 percent of its natural gas, prices for international benchmark Brent crude traded down $1.24 to $112.35 a barrel in late Monday activity.

Once ashore, the storm could wreak havoc on low-lying fuel refineries along the Gulf Coast that account for about 40 percent of U.S. refining capacity. Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal said President Barack Obama approved his state's request for a federal disaster declaration, making federal funds available for disaster recovery activities like clearing debris. The ports of Mobile and New Orleans were closed and barge traffic was suspended along southern portions of the Mississippi River.

http://in.reuters.co...E8JS09Y20120828

[Iceberg]

Must be a hurricane now, the eye is in and out on visuals and open. Ft winds of 86kts have been recorded (quite a few now above 80kts). Pressure is tricky but somewhere between 970 and 977mb (pressure of sub 970 was recorded but then discounted)

[knocker]

As you say Ice pressure tricky. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AIR FORCE RESERVE AND NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 976 MB...28.82 INCHES.

Edited August 28, 2012 by knocker

[Thunder Snow]

How long has he left over water, why is it taking so long to strengthen

[Coast]

It's been touted as a Hurricane for the last few hours in the press, I guess it's just down to some specific measurements now?

http://www.ibtimes.c...live-stream.htm

TROPICAL STORM ISAAC DISCUSSION NUMBER 29

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012

400 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

REPORTS FROM THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT

THE CENTRAL PRESSURE HAS DROPPED A LITTLE MORE...BUT SO FAR...THE

MAXIMUM FLIGHT-LEVEL AND SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS STILL DO NOT

QUITE SUPPORT HURRICANE INTENSITY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD

AT 60 KT PENDING ADDITIONAL OBSERVATIONS FROM THE HURRICANE

HUNTERS. ALTHOUGH THE WIND FIELD REMAINS RATHER BROAD AND

RELATIVELY FLAT...RECENT AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM

WINDS ARE NOW OCCURRING SOMEWHAT CLOSER TO THE CENTER OVER THE

NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CYCLONE. THIS WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE

INNER CORE CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED...AND

STRENGTHENING MIGHT BE IMMINENT.

http://www.nhc.noaa....ml/280856.shtml

[knocker]

How long has he left over water, why is it taking so long to strengthen

THE CENTER OF ISAAC SHOULD REACH THE

COASTLINE OF SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AS EARLY AS THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER

GUSTS. ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MAKING

LANDFALL...AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AFTER THAT.

Edited August 28, 2012 by knocker

[weatherobsuk]

000

WTNT64 KNHC 281618

TCUAT4

HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012

1120 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE ISAAC FINALLY ACHIEVES HURRICANE

STATUS...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT

INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC HAVE INCREASED

TO 75 MPH...120 KM/H. ON THIS BASIS...ISAAC IS BEING UPGRADED TO

A HURRICANE.

SUMMARY OF 1120 AM CDT...1620 UTC...INFORMATION

-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...28.1N 88.6W

ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER

ABOUT 160 MI...250 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

$$

FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN

_________________

54° 11' 59'' North

9° 9' 20'' East

Station at W-Underground: Link

[Iceberg]

Nhc have finally upgraded him to a hurricane after recon found 94kt winds at flight level est to be 65kts at ground.

I can't see why they didn't upgrade earlier tbh we have drops of 64kt flight winds of 87kts, oil rig readings of 55kts 100 miles from the centre and pressure of 975mb but there you go....

Hurricane Isaac at last.

He seems to have a very very large and strong wind field for a cat 1

[summer blizzard]

Nhc have finally upgraded him to a hurricane after recon found 94kt winds at flight level est to be 65kts at ground.

I can't see why they didn't upgrade earlier tbh we have drops of 64kt flight winds of 87kts, oil rig readings of 55kts 100 miles from the centre and pressure of 975mb but there you go....

Hurricane Isaac at last.

He seems to have a very very large and strong wind field for a cat 1

I have to say that Issac has been one of the weirdest storms from a core point of view, perhaps because he had such a large wind-field from the off.

At the upper levels he has been a hurricane for about 24 hours now but it has not mixed to the surface very well and has instead spread out at the surface, 94KT would give him a 105mph reading if it mixed down to the surface like a normal storm.

I suppose its a trade off really, strong category 1 at landfall but with a larger than average envelope of winds.

...

Also worth noting that some models have this stall and drift west for 24 hours before landfall and with 975mb pressure readings (and falling) it is entirely possible that surface winds could catch up.

[summer blizzard]

Reports coming in that that several towns along the coast are now under water (upto 2 miles inland) and the centre still won't be onshore for around 12 hours. New Orleans is going to get the worst side of the storm and the surge could be as high as 12 feet.

[Sainsbo]

Any webcams around the new orleans coastline that anyone knows of? This could be quite interesting to watch.

[Gray-Wolf]

We've got to bear in mind that Katrina took out a lot of the natural coastal defenses along that coast and we have not had enough time for nature to rebuild those defenses in the 7 years since she hit. Man might have had some gains in defending N.O. but should the water sneak around the back due to poor coastal defenses on the flanks?

[The PIT]

Any webcams around the new orleans coastline that anyone knows of? This could be quite interesting to watch.

Some here http://www.wxnation.com/neworleans/webcams/

[knocker]

The 1800z analysis.

[vortex_liam]

http://live.tvnweather.com/

This is growing beast!

Anyone know its path through the usa out?

[knocker]

Last I've seen.

[Polar Maritime]

http://www.11alive.c...urricane-Isaac-

Hurricane webcam

Edited August 28, 2012 by Polar Maritime

[Thunder Snow]

He looked really impressive on the NBC forecast 500mm of rain ad 80mph winds :-/

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Tornadic activity a possibility soon then I'm guessing.

[Polar Maritime]

http://live.tvnweather.com/ good footage

[knocker]

The 2100z analysis.

[summer blizzard]

Stunningly beautiful now, another 24 hours over water possible if it takes the model drift west.

If it looked like that 48 hours ago, this may have been approaching Katrina in the surge department.

Still strengthening, gusts just under 100mph at the coast and upto 60mph in New Orleans.