Atlantic Storms - Autumn 2012

[Liam J]

Surprised there's no Netweather flash warning for this developing situation tonite, esp in light of Ian Fergie's posts - they have a distinct air of concern about them esp for south west and west country

Watch this space.....

Edit - http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=weather-alert-status;sess=

Edited November 20, 2012 by Liam J

[Aaron]

Huh? We're now forecast 18mm in 24 hours? We were only forecast comparatively little yesterday by the MetO and the high-res models.. how quickly things can change.

[The PIT]

Huh? We're now forecast 18mm in 24 hours? We were only forecast comparatively little yesterday by the MetO and the high-res models.. how quickly things can change.

Still time to change yet. Evening forecast showed it raining here by now but it's as dry as bone.

[andy100]

Looks more like a System England shall be taking the brunt of, for a change.

Winds in Scotland being weaker.

[Liam J]

Looking at the 18z NMM it looks like as far north as Glasgow the winds may gust to 50mph, becoming stronger the further south you get. I expect somewhere over Western Britain to record a 70mph gust.

Although should this happen then we could be talking about adding another 20mph on top of those values, see link to Ians post in the MOD thread >> http://forum.netweat...80#entry2408775

upper level winds could be dragged down to ground level in gusts.

Wind shear off the scale

NMM showing a defined squall line.

Edited November 20, 2012 by Liam J

[Aaron]

I can't believe I have only just noticed this - it's looking like a really notable severe weather event. That being said, it didn't look this bad 24 hours ago. Even here in the West Yorkshire desert, we could get a lot of rain.

Edited November 20, 2012 by Aaron

[Nick F]

Weather alert issued by Netweather earlier: http://www.netweathe...rt-status;sess=

Just to add, very strong deep layer and low- level shear with this front, so if line convection develops. there is potential for tornadoes if there is sufficient low-level instability.

Edited November 21, 2012 by Nick F

[Zenarcher]

As expected K5 buoy is now getting high wind speeds just a few hours ago 12mph now 45mph.

[Coast]

Just to add, very strong deep layer and low- level shear with this front, so if line convection develops. there is potential for tornadoes if there is sufficient low-level instability.

[philglossop]

Well I wasn't expecting this, but there's loads of flooding across Plymouth and South Hams this morning.

http://www.thisisplymouth.co.uk/Roads-blocked-heavy-rain-brings-flooding-Plymouth/story-17379687-detail/story.html

There's a back edge coming in looking at the radar- but whats that on the horizon for tomorrow afternoon? A squall line?

[simon29]

Its looking like alot of people are in for a nasty shock with the weather tomorrow.

[Liam J]

NMM 00z still picking up on a significant squall line developing during Thursday morning as the front moves east, accompanied by some very squally gusty conditions just ahead of the front, 60mph+ even over some inland areas.

Edited November 21, 2012 by Liam J

[Coast]

Gusts:

Transferring East as the front moves across:

[NL]

Not looking good for the SW of the country with more heavy rain forecast for Thursday. 12 hr accumulative rain map already shows rainfall up to 40mm.

Could be some flash flooding on Thursday as the forecasted squall passes through.

Netweather 12hr accumulative rainfall

[weatherobsuk]

Looks to be a slow moving LEWP moving through tomorrow, unlike the classical squall-fronts which come and go across the country in a matter of hours the models are showing this to stall around west cheshire/welsh borders early morning before transitioning eastwards again by the afternoon. The highest tornado convergence risk will be around this early morning period as the squall is pivoted from the north.

[Liam J]

Pretty awful conditions across the SW from the overnight rain.

Heavy rain and flooding overnight in Devon has "cut off" some villages, closed roads and disrupted trains.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-20422830

[weatherobsuk]

http://www.thisisdevon.co.uk/PICTURES-Devon-floods-Tamerton-Foliot-water/story-17380315-detail/story.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Unfortunately this rain is pretty stubborn to clear despite the promises of today being wall-to-wall sunshine only 48 hours ago. Eastern parts especially expected to see some minor flooding the longer this goes on.

[Aaron]

Rain is pouring here and the total is increasing rapidly.. currently at 10.9mm but was on 6.8mm about an hour ago.

Edited November 21, 2012 by Aaron

[AWD]

NAE continues to show strong winds up the western side of the country ahead of the cold front on Thursday;

http://expert-images.weatheronline.co.uk/daten/proficharts/en/nae/2012/11/21/basis00/ukuk/uv10/12112206_2_2100.gif

[Raidan]

OMG its hectic around here my street is flooded traffic buuild up is madness,I have pics but don't know how to post them.

[philglossop]

The sun is out- but the only word to describe Plymouth is chaos.

Victoria park in Millbridge under under 3 ft of water- meaning that you can't get from Millbridge to Stonehouse by car. Yealmpton is currently cut off again, with severe flooding being reported at Newton Ferrers and Noss Mayo.

The main road into Plymouth from the A38 - Gdynia Way is closed to severe flooding. Tamerton Foliat is cut off from Plymouth due to flooding in the village and also on the main road in from Southway.

There's flooding now on the following roads

Outland Road, The Embankment, Peverell Park Road, Wolesley Road, Alma Road, Pike Road, Lipson Vale, Plymouth Road and Sutton Road.

Radio Plymouth are now asking all motorists not to travel unless extremely urgent.

[The PIT]

Well the rain amount is being topped up. Now 19.4mm of rainfall since midnight. The back edge isn't far away so should be dry for my lunch at one.

[AWD]

Flood warnings going up across the country;

http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/homeandleisure/floods/31618.aspx

[Raidan]

My street has turned into a sight seeing place,lots of people out with cameras taking pics,felt sorry for a neighbour who had to walk through it to get home just now.

[AWD]

My street has turned into a sight seeing place,lots of people out with cameras taking pics,felt sorry for a neighbour who had to walk through it to get home just now.

Where abouts in Bristol are you?