Atlantic Storms - Autumn 2012

[Zenarcher]

Update using the GFS 12z data from this afternoon,

Across all of England and Wales on Wednesday morning the wind will be around 25 to 30mph and gusts of 40mph,

On Wednesday night and into Thursday morning 45mph with gusts over 55mph for South Western Ireland,

Friday remains the same as yesterday windy weather for Western Scotland and across Southern England. For Western Scotland 45mph to 55mph and Southern England/Channel 50mph to 65mph,

Saturday night has some people talking at the moment the 06z showed a very strong low pass South East England,

On the update this afternoon the wind has been downgraded for England completely but the low does look to head into Europe bring storm force winds. This is still about 5 days away and still needs to be watched.

[Zenarcher]

A more into depth idea of tomorrow Wednesday,

Gusty winds all day for England and Wales. Top gusts over 50mph are shown to be likely in Northern Wales and Northern England. By the time it comes to trick or treating the wind will be calm for most of the UK but the East and South East of England will still experience gusts in their 30mph to 40mph range.

A very heavy squall will pass through as well during midday Wednesday,

(The above charts are from NW Extra)

During Wednesday evening when people are out trick or treating it doesn't look like the weather is in for a halloween mood it's looking mostly wet but some places will escape with no rain at all,

Onto Friday now yesterday I mentioned the channel low the models are still unsure about this the 12z GFS today did downgrade it and none of the other models seem to be interested in it,

Some very windy weather for Western Scotland on Friday night gusts over 65mph,

Edited October 30, 2012 by weathermaster

[Liam J]

Steady increase in wind speeds this evening, currently 20mph with gusts around 25-30mph from the south west.

[Zenarcher]

Some windy weather for the next 24 hours,

This evening a low pressure system will make it's way over the North which will bring gusts of 55mph for Northern Ireland,

Into Thursday night and the early hours of Friday morning the strong winds will move into South Western Scotland again being around 55mph,

Friday morning gusts of 50mph for South Eastern Scotland,

Some heavy squalls passing through later tonight as well,

(The above charts are from the high res model NMM on NW Extra)

As I mentioned a few days ago about the channel low for Friday it's safe to say now it's been written off completely.

[Zenarcher]

It's looking more likely that a short windy spell of weather is on the way on Sunday evening into the early hours of Monday morning. Most of the models agree on this.

Mean wind speeds generally around 35mph,

Gusts over 60mph in some parts likely,

Still just over 72 hours away but needs to be watched.

[AWD]

I wonder if anything thundery could develop within this LP system?

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/ani.html?0,hir_,_eur60.png,cape,icape,layer,icon10,el,lfc,spout,lapse,lapse2,prec,pvort,pvort2,the700,thetae,mixr,stp,srh,srhl,gusts,pw,mtv

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/ani.html?0,hir_,_eur60.png,cape,icape,layer,icon10,el,lfc,spout,lapse,lapse2,prec,pvort,pvort2,the700,thetae,mixr,stp,srh,srhl,gusts,pw,mtv

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/ani.html?0,hir_,_eur60.png,cape,icape,layer,icon10,el,lfc,spout,lapse,lapse2,prec,pvort,pvort2,the700,thetae,mixr,stp,srh,srhl,gusts,pw,mtv

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/ani.html?0,hir_,_eur60.png,cape,icape,layer,icon10,el,lfc,spout,lapse,lapse2,prec,pvort,pvort2,the700,thetae,mixr,stp,srh,srhl,gusts,pw,mtv

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/ani.html?0,hir_,_eur60.png,cape,icape,layer,icon10,el,lfc,spout,lapse,lapse2,prec,pvort,pvort2,the700,thetae,mixr,stp,srh,srhl,gusts,pw,mtv

http://www.lightningwizard.com/maps/Europe/ani.html?0,hir_,_eur60.png,cape,icape,layer,icon10,el,lfc,spout,lapse,lapse2,prec,pvort,pvort2,the700,thetae,mixr,stp,srh,srhl,gusts,pw,mtv

Certainly looks like some gusty winds on its southern flank though.

[andy100]

Meto issued some warnings for parts of Scotland.

A spell of heavy rain, accompanied by strong to gale force winds, will start to affect the region during Sunday evening and persist into Monday. Rain is then expected to ease later on Monday morning. The public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/?regionName

[Zenarcher]

With the low pressure now just over 48 hours away before it arrives confidence continues to grow on what it will bring,

Sunday evening heavy rain moves across Ireland bringing wind speeds of 35mph and gusts 60mph.

Rain

Gusts

Through Sunday evening and into Monday morning the heavy rain will move across Southern Scotland, wind speeds still in the 35mph range but gusts are likely to be a bit higher with 65mph being likely.

Rain

Gusts

Later on Monday afternoon the rain spreads across all parts of the country even down Southern parts, gusts across Northern England could be over 50mph as well.

[Zenarcher]

The low pressure system is moving across the Atlantic right now as forecast.

Latest warnings from the Met Office which was updated around 11am today,

SW Scotland, Lothian Borders

Central, Tayside & Fife

Highlands & Eilean Siar

A spell of heavy rain, accompanied by strong to gale force winds, will start to affect the region during late Sunday evening and persist well into Monday, before clearing later.

The public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding.

Here's the latest charts,

Sunday evening rain moves over Ireland, wind speeds 35mph to 40mph with gusts around 55mph,

Rain

Gusts

Sunday night and early hours of Monday like the Met Office warnings say heavy rain over parts of Southern Scotland. Wind speeds now 30 to 35mph with gusts around 50mph over Ireland, Southern Scotland and Northern England,

Monday morning the rain becomes more wide spread across Scotland and heavy at times, gusts still the same but the coasts of E Ireland, SW Scotland, W England and W Wales could see gusts reaching over 60mph.

I'll do a more into depth forecast tomorrow afternoon when the high res models will have very accurate predictions.

Edited November 17, 2012 by weathermaster

[johnholmes]

thanks W nicely explained with good use of the charts-make a forecaster of you yet?

I enjoy seeing and reading your posts on the topic you obviously enjoy

[Zenarcher]

thanks W nicely explained with good use of the charts-make a forecaster of you yet?

I enjoy seeing and reading your posts on the topic you obviously enjoy

Thanks John I enjoy doing them and happy to see people like it.

StormChaser1 used to do great updates on here but sadly hasn't in ages.

Edited November 17, 2012 by weathermaster

[Liam J]

A very unsettled week coming up across the British Isles as we see the Atlantic step up a few gears with the UK being the main target, the north and west taking the brunt as is normally the case. The first batch of wet & windy weather is set to move in from the west later this evening and during the over night period.

We'll see a steady increase in wind speeds for western locations of UK through this afternoon but towards Sunday evening conditions will deteriorate quite quickly as the deepening depression (around 980mb) and associated fronts move pretty close off the west of Ireland.

A period of very heavy rainfall & strong winds will sweep across Ireland, gusts around 45-50mph+ even over some inland areas to the S & SE making for a fairly wild night.

Moving further into the night and the rainfall continues to head eastwards towards the mainland with a pulse of very heavy rainfall moving over over N Ireland, N England and S & SW Scotland with gale force southerly winds through the Irish Sea, gusting 55-60mph. Now I'm using NMM charts here but the GFS is indicating wind gusts potentially in excess of 60mph for parts of S Scotland and N England. and the northern part of the Irish Sea. Definitely some risk of damage to trees with fallen branches etc, Western Wales also becoming very windy overnight.

The strongest winds by the time Monday dawns will be affecting SE Scotland and N&E England, again gusts in excess of 50mph quite likely which could make for some tricky conditions on the morning commute.

The winds slowly easing through out the day but it will remain very breezy for much of Monday with plenty of showers or longer spells of rain packing in behind the main band, as the NMM highlights well.

Looking at the predicted rainfall totals by the end of tomorrow (2-3 inches for some) I think local flooding may well become a problem in a few locations, especially as the ground is still saturated from recent wet weather plus the ground is now littered with fallen leaves so blocked drains could well exacerbate problems.

Further wild conditions to be expected through the course of this week, mid week could be one to watch....

Edited November 18, 2012 by Liam J

[Coast]

Looks like trouble on the way for some!

Some very gusty winds and substantial rain:

[Coast]

That's some serious wind:

[Liam J]

Yeah quite a decent blow coming, not had many of those so far this season, a right old mess tomorrow morning I bet as all the autumnal leaves and debris gets blown all over the place. It'll certainly remove the last of the leaves from the trees.

Updated UKMET warnings - http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/?regionName=dg&from=rss&sn=7259DC3C-0BB3-948F-45B6-086CFBE6EB7C_5_DG

Edited November 18, 2012 by Liam J

[itsnowjoke]

Does this mean lancashire will get battered? And why gas net weather no warnings out..well i cant find any

[Liam J]

Does this mean lancashire will get battered? And why gas net weather no warnings out..well i cant find any

I can't really see the wind speeds reaching warning criteria which is around >70mph, more typically 50-60mph at the strongest over the Irish Sea and exposed S Scotland and N England, Coastal Lancashire will experience some strong winds overnight with top gusts reaching over 40mph at times.

Strong southerly winds now picking up over southern parts of Ireland.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

I mentioned the mid week period on the previous page as one to watch, heres a chart from the last 00z ECM output for Tuesday night - 45-50kt mean wind speeds close the NW of Britain, models not agreed on this potential so expect further changes over the next 24 hours.

Edited November 18, 2012 by Liam J

[Liam J]

Netweather alert in force to cover the stormy weather currently moving in from the west - http://www.netweathe...57ff1bccb61250d

Very strong winds affecting Southern & Western Ireland now, also increasing over the western mainland.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

No changes to make to my earlier forecast from this morning, perhaps the 12z runs have added a few mph onto the max gusts - http://forum.netweat...20#entry2406497

Winds gusting 50-60mph+ through the Irish Sea affecting adjacent coastal areas then the strongest winds transferring over towards southern and eastern Scotland and parts of north east England.

12z NMM has ramped up the total rainfall accumulation by the end of Manday, over 90mm possible over Cumbria.

Edited November 18, 2012 by Liam J

[Zenarcher]

Using the high res NMM model here is the latest on the low that is moving across the UK and Ireland this evening and into Monday morning,

Right now heavy rain over Ireland,

Later tonight Northern parts of the UK see the rain being very wide spread and some area's where there are warnings out for could get over 14mm in just one hour,

Early Monday morning the rain is still widespread across the Northern parts with the heaviest rain hanging around Western Scotland and the Highlands,

Later on Monday the rain eventually moves away and eases off but some showers will move South,

Onto the wind now, Ireland this evening will see gusts of about 60mph,

Through out the night gusts over Ireland, Northern England and Southern Scotland will range from 55 to 65mph with the Irish sea seeing the highest of 70mph,

4 hours later around 8am when people will be heading out to work the wind will Ease over Ireland and in the Irish sea but Northern England, Southern and Eastern Scotland get hit badly even inland area's, top gusts around 65mph,

It will stay windy in these area's until about 4pm when it eventually starts to ease down.

I mentioned the mid week period on the previous page as one to watch, heres a chart from the last 00z ECM output for Tuesday night - 45-50kt mean wind speeds close the NW of Britain, models not agreed on this potential so expect further changes over the next 24 hours.

Like you say expect changes over the next 24 hours and the ECM 12z is hugely different from this morning doesn't really develop the low at all and seems similar to the GFS.

[Liam J]

Like you say expect changes over the next 24 hours and the ECM 12z is hugely different from this morning doesn't really develop the low at all and seems similar to the GFS.

Yep ECM has dropped that idea but I do think we have potential for further very windy periods during the course of this week, the models really don't know what to do with the all the short waves zipping about, developments may occur within a relatively short time frame.

[Liam J]

Absolutely tipping it down here with a strong and ever increasing wind, gusts in excess of 40mph now.

Latest V6 radar + NMM pressure pressure overlay, torrential rainfall returns over the Irish Sea.

Winds really battering Ireland currently giving gusts of 50-60mph in places.

http://www.xcweather.co.uk/

Just a quick mention about Tuesday - 18z NAE has thrown up some very wild charts highlighting the potential for severe gale to storm force winds over Western UK & Ireland, could be quite windy along the south coast as well.

Edited November 18, 2012 by Liam J

[Coast]

Localised flooding a real possibility today:

and maybe a tornado threat?

Extensive and quite high gusty winds in the North:

[Coast]

Weather warnings issued as heavy rain and 60mph winds hit Scotland

Weather warnings have been issued across the west coast and central Scotland with 6cm of rain and winds of up to 60mph expected. Forecasters said that there is a risk of localised flooding with several roads already closed.

The Met Office has issued a yellow weather warning, urging people to be aware, cross Central, Tayside and Fife, Highlands and Eilean Siar, South-West Scotland, Lothian and Borders and Strathclyde. The warnings were put in place at around 1am on Monday and will remain in force until 6pm.

A spokesman said: “A spell of heavy rain, accompanied by strong to gale force winds, will start to affect the region during late Sunday evening and persist well into Monday, before clearing later. “The public should be aware of the risk of localised flooding.â€

The office’s chief forecaster added: “A frontal system associated with a deepening depression, will affect the UK later on Sunday and particularly during Monday. “The heaviest and most persistent rain is expected over western regions, with widespread accumulations of 20 to 40mm over parts of western Scotland and locally 60mm or more over higher ground. “Some localised flooding is possible in parts of south-west and Western Scotland. “It will also become very windy, with gusts exceeding 60mph over some exposed western coasts and hill.â€

Several roads have already been closed due to the flooding. Traffic Scotland said the the A814 at Rhu, between Helensburgh and Faslane, had fallen victim to the weather and that motorist heading to Faslane or Coulport are advised to use the A817 Haul Road or an alternative route.

http://news.stv.tv/scotland/201362-weather-warnings-issued-as-heavy-rain-and-60mph-winds-hit-scotland/

[DR(S)NO]

Some particularly nasty weather in this neck of the woods today(as illustrated in coasts warning above) .Looking forward,quite a bit of rain forecast over the next few days with further flooding virtually assured.Tuesday afternoon looks pretty gusty while the early hours of Thursday could again be nasty with the chance of heavy rain and gusts up to 60mph currently forecast .Definitely .some good autumnal weather to keep an eye on for the next few days.

(Sorry ,no charts...bit of a newbie I'm afraid)

[Liam J]

Welcome to Netweather DR(S)NO

A wild day here as well with very heavy rain & strong southerly winds, still quite breezy atm but calming down a lot comapred to earlier.

GFS 12z showing some extremely windy weather during Wednesday night & Thursday morning - if these charts verified then structural damage would be a possibilty, 70-75mph gusts crashing over northern & western Britain.

I wouldn't rule out further upgrades on future runs sharpening up the trough during Thursday morning as it's interacting with an intense jet streak, it wouldn't take much for this to be a significant wind event...

Be interesting to see how the hi res NMM & NAE handle the situation when they come into range.

Edited November 19, 2012 by Liam J