Atlantic Storms - Autumn 2012

[Zenarcher]

The last 24 hours has been fascinating to watch the weather models struggle with the low pressure system due tomorrow. GFS done the best it stayed the same since last night and the ECM, UKMO and NAE all changed their minds but now have sided with the GFS. Looks like the worst of the windy weather the low brings will miss land and be too far West to affect us too much.

GFS 12z showing some extremely windy weather during Wednesday night & Thursday morning - if these charts verified then structural damage would be a possibilty, 70-75mph gusts crashing over northern & western Britain.

I wouldn't rule out further upgrades on future runs sharpening up the trough during Thursday morning as it's interacting with an intense jet streak, it wouldn't take much for this to be a significant wind event...

Good job on spotting this without the gust charts it doesn't seem to bad just average wind speeds around 35 to 40mph a little lower than last nights low but the gusts are really high like you say 70 to 75mph. One to watch.

[Liam J]

Good job on spotting this without the gust charts it doesn't seem to bad just average wind speeds around 35 to 40mph a little lower than last nights low but the gusts are really high like you say 70 to 75mph. One to watch.

It may well prove windier than it was today, highest mean speeds appear to be over the Irish Sea during Thursday morning - in excess of 50mph.

[Zenarcher]

It may well prove windier than it was today, highest mean speeds appear to be over the Irish Sea during Thursday morning - in excess of 50mph.

Another to keep a watch on towards the end of the week,

GFS throws up this little low for Friday morning,

NOGAPS takes it more serious but delays it until Saturday night,

They are the only two models to show it but shows that this entire week has potential of windy weather at any time.

Edited November 19, 2012 by weathermaster

[philglossop]

It was a tad breezy here this afternoon. I see the Meto gave a gust of 47mph between 3pm and 4pm. Finally the tree at the end of the road has lost most of it's leaves.

[DR(S)NO]

Potential for period of heavy rain on Thursday morning,particularly for southwest Scotland .More flooding likely.

[Mark Neal.]

Also worth noting that GFS showing 25-28mph winds here on Friday. Gales for some areas and heavy rain for a time. Feeling very Autumnal for sure! Albeit temperatures reading mild.

[Coast]

Potential for period of heavy rain on Thursday morning,particularly for southwest Scotland .More flooding likely.

A lot of rain on it's way according to GFS:

[Liam J]

Still looking like Thursday morning could be one to watch for a swathe of the country ahead of the approaching cold front where severe gales are likely, gusts towards 70mph quite possible over some western areas, 50-60mph even inland.

Rainfall + Cloud cover

Strong jet streak associated with this feature

Last frame of the 6z NAE, mean speeds.

Edited November 20, 2012 by Liam J

[Zenarcher]

Getting gusts over 40mph and looks like Scotland will get a close shave tonight the high res model shows gusts over 75mph to the far West coast of Scotland just missing land.

[peterf]

looking rough for here Thursday morning,chance to increase in speed as it comes over the tops and hurtles east.

[gottolovethisweather]

Getting gusts over 40mph and looks like Scotland will get a close shave tonight

Edited November 20, 2012 by gottolovethisweather

[Paul]

Originally posted by Gibby:

As most people are looking at the virtual Weather World on the Model Output thread some real 'Live' weather is developing in the next 24-48hrs over parts of the UK. I have issued a Weather Warning on my website re heavy rain overnight tonight for my area with totals in excess of 25mm and possibly up to 40mm likely to fall on already saturated ground caused by the last 24 hours rain. I am reasonably confident that flooding could become a problem and newsworthy for parts of the SW and South by tomorrow.

In addition looking forward to Thursday sees a second event developing as a very deep depression winds up to the NW pushing an active trough into the UK, moving slowly East. The biggest concern here is for very strong winds with gusts inland in excess of 50mph later on Thursday while in exposure 60-70mph gusts are likely. This is more than strong enough to cause some structural damage in places. Once more heavy rain will move in later with some more substantial totals likely exasipating the problems. Post your reports and experiences here.

[Liam J]

Stormy conditions during Thursday morning ahead of the cold front, 45-50kts sustained wind speeds affecting the far west, very rough across the Irish Sea which I expect will lead to many ferry cancellations. Risk of minor damage occurring over land as gusts reach 60-70mph near the coasts and 50-60mph further inland over Northern England. Also very windy along the south coast with gusts around 55mph +

12z NAE showing a sharp trough associated with the front, very squally conditions developing making for a hazardous rush hour Thursday morning.

Edited November 20, 2012 by Liam J

[Paul]

Looking likely to be some nasty weather virtually countrywide in the next 48 hours.

Rain totals at 24 hours show central and southern England and Wales bearing the brunt:

48 hour totals show how that focus also moves further north

Wind speeds will be in the blustery category tomorrow, but it's into Thursday which needs watching - could be a nasty drive to work for some...

[virtualsphere]

Good call there Paul. We've already had 50mm rain here since the weekend, and with the high water levels those 48 hour totals look a little worrying. Not much out of the ordinary for around here but the last 6 months have been exceptionally wet.

My wife is overdue to give birth - not looking forward to driving to the hospital in that!

[Kiwi]

Looking likely to be some nasty weather virtually countrywide in the next 48 hours.

Rain totals at 24 hours show central and southern England and Wales bearing the brunt:

mmm ...ground is already saturated here with lots of standing water.

I suspect that there could be some flooding issues here abouts tomorrow.

My father in law lives down in south somerset and said that by lunchtime today the road outside his house had already flooded. The 24hr totals are showing an additional 39 mm in that area ...not good

Edited November 20, 2012 by Kiwi

[Zenarcher]

Yep Thursday is looking bad just checked the Met Office gust map their giving top gusts around 68mph.

[J10]

NAE also tending to agree with heavy rainfall.

NMM does tend to overdo rainfall totals, more especially in terms of the heaviest rainfall in an hour or so.

But still worth keeping an eye on.

As for the wind, I dare say, Mumbles Weather Centre looks likely to get strong winds over the next few days.

by the way How long has NMM been back to 48 hrs.

Edited November 20, 2012 by Jackone

[Paul]

Must admit, we've not picked up any issues with the nmm over-doing rain totals on a regular basis, particularly since we updated to new physics a month or so back - we monitor some locations against it as checks. It's been going out to 48 hours on all 4 runs a day for about 6 weeks now I think.

[J10]

Must admit, we've not picked up any issues with the nmm over-doing rain totals on a regular basis, particularly since we updated to new physics a month or so back - we monitor some locations against it as checks. It's been going out to 48 hours on all 4 runs a day for about 6 weeks now I think.

The over estimation of rainfall tending to be more in the summer, it was wet enough without any over estimation.

Haven't really checked recently. I'll have a look over the next few weeks,

[Paul]

All eyes to the southwest now as the rain gathers itself and heads inland - already some heavier bursts moving through.

Latest radar:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=radar;sess=

[Liam J]

Very turbulent 48 hours of weather kicking off from tonight with the heavy rain which is now making inroads into the south west, with flooding becoming a grave concern.

The Met Office have just upgraded to an amber warning for the intensity of the rainfall.

http://www.metoffice...t_warnings.html

Edited November 20, 2012 by Liam J

[Zenarcher]

The low that's currently bringing wet and windy weather to Western Scotland is just passing over K5 buoy it's pressure is down to 977mb and wind only 12mph because it's near the center. Forecasts show the average wind speeds for K5 should jump up to 50mph soon.

[Bristawl Si]

Surprised there's no Netweather flash warning for this developing situation tonite, esp in light of Ian Fergie's posts - they have a distinct air of concern about them esp for south west and west country

[Cloud 10]

Looks like a small low will form overnight along the front causing headaches for the met-office.

The hi-res models really come into their own in these type of situations.