Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

[Interitus]

Tis much bigger than a crack!

You could actually see the open water area developing yesterday too. We're seeing a very strong southerly air flow up across the north of Greenland, which is driving the sea ice poleward, away from the coast, and carrying anomalously warm air over the region.

Close to record November temperatures for Kap Morris Jesup, the northernmost point of Greenland - the past two days (though continuous night of course) measured 3.7°C and 0.3°C subject to confirmation.

According to NOAA records since 1982 (1988, 2006 & 2007 missing data) only two other November days have been above freezing, 5.5°C on 10/11/1998 and 2.8°C on 10/11/1994.

November maximum temps average about -23°C.

This is not the latest above freezing date as oddly the records show six December days above zero - three of them in a very mild spell in 1986 where on one day the minimum nearly stayed above zero, falling to -0.22°C compared to the normal December min of -31.7°C

[Gray-Wolf]

It just does not feel right to contemplate a melt out of the pack? I know we are told that the end will arrive very fast (the remaining ice, all being of similar thickness at the end of that summer, would disappear over a matter of days?) but guessing when that event would occur surely has too many variables?

I think the thing to worry over is the speed at which the ice goes as we do not need another 2012 with low ice by the start of Aug? If thin F.Y. ice played a role in this then ice gain over the coming winter must be key? To see Lincoln sea still feeding Nares (even though Nares appears blocked?) raises questions about temps below the ice as does that fissure opening to the north of Greenland. I think folk should keep an eye on the travel into Fram as our weather seems hell bent on setting up a northerly from the Svalbard area feeding into Fram?

I sometimes wonder if the folk on the models thread truely know what they are witnessing/wishing for?

[quest4peace]

It just does not feel right to contemplate a melt out of the pack? I know we are told that the end will arrive very fast (the remaining ice, all being of similar thickness at the end of that summer, would disappear over a matter of days?) but guessing when that event would occur surely has too many variables?

I think the thing to worry over is the speed at which the ice goes as we do not need another 2012 with low ice by the start of Aug? If thin F.Y. ice played a role in this then ice gain over the coming winter must be key? To see Lincoln sea still feeding Nares (even though Nares appears blocked?) raises questions about temps below the ice as does that fissure opening to the north of Greenland. I think folk should keep an eye on the travel into Fram as our weather seems hell bent on setting up a northerly from the Svalbard area feeding into Fram?

I sometimes wonder if the folk on the models thread truely know what they are witnessing/wishing for?

A northerly for us,at the cost of the ice in that area?. I'd rather have the ice still in tact, and us get a cold north westerly or NE/E from Scandinavia and Russia. Heck i would even take a really mild european winter, if it meant the ice had a chance of recovery up there, and this is coming fom a cold and snow lover.

Edited November 28, 2012 by quest4peace

[jonboy]

big fissure northof greenland nothing to do with nuclear icebreakers!!!!!

[Gray-Wolf]

One of the reasons I stopped my Model thread interlopes was seeing where the 'cold' was coming from? If it was an 'expanding' Arctic then that'd be fine but for every plunge we get down here they get a balacing blast of warmth. Those weather station temps from N.Greenland show us just that with temps 26c above the average for the day of the year. Imagine a November day here 26c above the average? I think more folk would ask questions about it for sure!!!

[gagerg]

Whatever about the drop in extent, the Sea Ice Area appears to be doing well according to Cryosphere Today.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html

[BornFromTheVoid]

Whatever about the drop in extent, the Sea Ice Area appears to be doing well according to Cryosphere Today.

http://arctic.atmos....nteractive.html

Yep, area is doing well. Still 4th lowest on record, but maintaining very strong daily gains still. Continuing at this rate, we'd pass 2009 and 2011 before months end.

IJIS has updated with a large gain for yesterday, +127k, so we're back above 2010.

IJIS 28th

[BornFromTheVoid]

Cryosphere Today is reporting a loss of 185k for yesterday, taking us from 4th lowest on record back to 2nd lowest, though still "comfortably" ahead of 2006.

Most of the loss coming from the Baffin Sea and Bering strait area.

[Gray-Wolf]

I've been noting, from the model runs, how the -40's keep being flushed out of the West/N West of Greenland this year? I'd always thought that super cold dense air would take a lot of shifting but it seems to be easily dislodged? Even the 'Beasterly' this morning that looked sourced from Siberia (or at least deep in Russia) came in as a mild wind? Instead of seeing Savage Polar outbreaks I'm seeing more W.A.A. returning type events???

I wonder if this is a glimpse of whats to come with deep cold finding it difficult to stay put and deepen across the Arctic and then frequent warm air incursions 'milding out' some of the other 'cold directions' that used to hit us with this type of frequent blocking?

Though I've not looked I bet it's messing up the model discussion thread!

[Geordiesnow]

I've been noting, from the model runs, how the -40's keep being flushed out of the West/N West of Greenland this year? I'd always thought that super cold dense air would take a lot of shifting but it seems to be easily dislodged? Even the 'Beasterly' this morning that looked sourced from Siberia (or at least deep in Russia) came in as a mild wind? Instead of seeing Savage Polar outbreaks I'm seeing more W.A.A. returning type events???

I wonder if this is a glimpse of whats to come with deep cold finding it difficult to stay put and deepen across the Arctic and then frequent warm air incursions 'milding out' some of the other 'cold directions' that used to hit us with this type of frequent blocking?

Though I've not looked I bet it's messing up the model discussion thread!

Although each set up is different, I do tend to notice that that the cold over Scandi is perhaps not as cold as you might imagine from the set up, of course alot of factors do come into play and it looks like part of Russia will see a deep PV whereas the Arctic is quite "warm"(in terms of upper air temp profile) in comparison. I suppose also in fairness, it is late November-early December and not February and lets be honest, the blocking last year in February took some very cold upper air temps across parts of Europe and that was a record breaking cold spell for quite some time so such deep PV's can still make it at quite low latitudes despite a warming Arctic/planet!

Regarding the ice just to the North of Greenland, then I'm not too concerned by this but what does worry me though is the more frequent Greenland blocking situations which leads to more southerlies coming from the landmass of Greenland to the North, which apparently according to GFS 2M temps bring some positive(+1 - +3) temps especially in late Summer! I also thought southerlies through the fram stright was a good thing to keep the ice from flowing down it but it seems nowadays, no set up can help the thicker ice it seems!

[gagerg]

Although each set up is different, I do tend to notice that that the cold over Scandi is perhaps not as cold as you might imagine from the set up, of course alot of factors do come into play and it looks like part of Russia will see a deep PV whereas the Arctic is quite "warm"(in terms of upper air temp profile) in comparison. I suppose also in fairness, it is late November-early December and not February and lets be honest, the blocking last year in February took some very cold upper air temps across parts of Europe and that was a record breaking cold spell for quite some time so such deep PV's can still make it at quite low latitudes despite a warming Arctic/planet!

Regarding the ice just to the North of Greenland, then I'm not too concerned by this but what does worry me though is the more frequent Greenland blocking situations which leads to more southerlies coming from the landmass of Greenland to the North, which apparently according to GFS 2M temps bring some positive(+1 - +3) temps especially in late Summer! I also thought southerlies through the fram stright was a good thing to keep the ice from flowing down it but it seems nowadays, no set up can help the thicker ice it seems!

It is specifically for this reason why I feel that it may be over for the Arctic ice, that it is not likely to last the next summer.

Also where one fails another triumphs

Edited November 30, 2012 by gagerg

[Gray-Wolf]

It just looks odd on the Wokingham site seeing so much disruption in areas we used to see the odd lead open for a few days? I have to wonder at the structural strength of such expanses of thin ice when we know ice breakers have complained of swells running under such ice thicknesses (and the circular mixing that this promotes below the ice?). All in all a whole new ball game.

[knocker]

Nice image.

[BornFromTheVoid]

A few graphs based on the IJIS daily data now that November is gone. All 2002-2012

Mean Monthly Extent

Daily Extent, just November

Total and Percentage Extent Increase from October 31-November 30th

[oldsnowywizard]

Although each set up is different, I do tend to notice that that the cold over Scandi is perhaps not as cold as you might imagine from the set up, of course alot of factors do come into play and it looks like part of Russia will see a deep PV whereas the Arctic is quite "warm"(in terms of upper air temp profile) in comparison. I suppose also in fairness, it is late November-early December and not February and lets be honest, the blocking last year in February took some very cold upper air temps across parts of Europe and that was a record breaking cold spell for quite some time so such deep PV's can still make it at quite low latitudes despite a warming Arctic/planet!

Regarding the ice just to the North of Greenland, then I'm not too concerned by this but what does worry me though is the more frequent Greenland blocking situations which leads to more southerlies coming from the landmass of Greenland to the North, which apparently according to GFS 2M temps bring some positive(+1 - +3) temps especially in late Summer! I also thought southerlies through the fram stright was a good thing to keep the ice from flowing down it but it seems nowadays, no set up can help the thicker ice it seems!

It is only just Dec GW i think you are back onto your doom and gloom ale again... if i remember most of the 90s and earl 00s we all wished for cold temps like currently shown in feb let alone late november early dec... lets give winter a chance and worry about the impact in spring. some calm seas up there and cold equals great thickness growing opps.... lets try and look at glass half full... at least for now..

good to note that to me at least the area of cold air seems much larger than in previous years next week...... (ok forecast yes i know but... maybe it s due to all the cold being forced out over land and more cold air forming over the arctic...

Edited December 1, 2012 by oldsnowywizard

[BornFromTheVoid]

That's not GW you're responding too...

Anywho, looks like we can confirm the lowest global sea ice area maximum on record.

[gagerg]

That's not GW you're responding too...

Anywho, looks like we can confirm the lowest global sea ice area maximum on record.

2012 global sea ice appears to be doing better than 2010 at least.

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www7320.nrlssc.navy.mil/hycomARC/navo/arcticict_nowcast_anim30d.gif

Further images of the 'lead' that the southerlies up Fram caused to the ice north of Greenland.

We all believed that the ice on the north shore of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago would be the safest ice in the basin and form remnant ice even after the pack became seasonal. I do not think we can think that any more?

The summer melt along the North shore saw a lot of the shore-fast ice melt (and calving of many of the glaciers there?) and a big reduction in the thickness of the ice there. This event shows us that the ice there is no longer welded to the shore and will be prone to export. As it is the thick ice is sat above the trans Arctic Drift and any resumption in Northerlies (as hinted at in the GFS?) must put this ice into Fram proper?

I'm not liking the look of this.

[gagerg]

We seem to be back in business with regards area growth

[BornFromTheVoid]

ARCUS post season report is out.

http://www.arcus.org/search/seaiceoutlook/2012/summary

[BornFromTheVoid]

NOAA Arctic report card

http://www.climatewatch.noaa.gov/article/2012/2012-arctic-report-card

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/

[BornFromTheVoid]

[Gray-Wolf]

http://www.arctic.noaa.gov/reportcard/

I think this goes with the above. Do take your time over it.

[Gray-Wolf]

I believe this is from the 'Barber' rotten ice trip;

http://www.deas.harvard.edu/climate/seminars/pdfs/Asplin2012.pdf

I think it well highlights my fears for the damage swells now do to pack ice even if 2m thick. The type of Storms we see running up to Svalbard are capable of pushing these swells under the pack both mixing up warm water and mixing out the halocline below the ice as well as breaking the pack leaving weakness for the following melt season?

I think the biggest impact over winter is it's ability to mix the water just below the ice. With the loss of the old halocline that ran from surface up to 200m down sea areas now act like other sea ice areas and lakes/pond creating a shallow halocline as the ice forms. Mix this out and you limit the ice's ability to thicken as the water at it's base may be too warm to freeze. In some instances buoy data has shown a resumption of bottom melt when storms have pushed many km into the pack ice.

[gagerg]

I believe this is from the 'Barber' rotten ice trip;

http://www.deas.harv.../Asplin2012.pdf

I think it well highlights my fears for the damage swells now do to pack ice even if 2m thick. The type of Storms we see running up to Svalbard are capable of pushing these swells under the pack both mixing up warm water and mixing out the halocline below the ice as well as breaking the pack leaving weakness for the following melt season?

I think the biggest impact over winter is it's ability to mix the water just below the ice. With the loss of the old halocline that ran from surface up to 200m down sea areas now act like other sea ice areas and lakes/pond creating a shallow halocline as the ice forms. Mix this out and you limit the ice's ability to thicken as the water at it's base may be too warm to freeze. In some instances buoy data has shown a resumption of bottom melt when storms have pushed many km into the pack ice.

This makes it sound so much like the ice is capable of a complete melt out, even during the winter.