Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze 2012-2013)

[Gray-Wolf]

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

Latest from NSIDC. Starting to look like Bering could be the new area for 'extra ice'? Sad that this comes at the price of keeping warm air flowing over the East Siberian seas as that will limit thickness there and allow for early melt out.

I do not think even longer under ice free waters is what the Methane hydrates there need?

EDIT: Hi gagerg!

I think that as the ocean heat content increases over the coming years that the mixing of the waters through the winter months could lead to ice formation issues?

I'm sure I'm correct in my understanding that the ocean does not shed all of the heat it gained over the summer months once winter arrives (as some folk here seem to imagine?). Perversely the cold fresh melt water may assist in trapping heat below as early formed ice seals in that heat. The more buoy data we build up from the various sea areas not only plots the disruption of the halocline but also this lens of warmer, saltier water below that years ice/halocline layer.

When we had thick , multiyear ice throughout the basin the swells would be quashed by the strength of the thick ice. now it would appear that the thinner ice just flexes as the swells pass underneath and , as the paper outlined, 2m swells can travel up to 350km beneath the pack. with Barrentsz and Kara still with open water any of the nasty storms coming up from the Atlantic will be able to disrupt the ice front back into the pack for 350km. Is this what allowed the the multiyear ice to peel off the Greenland coast recently.

Our side of the basin appears between a rock and a hard place with northerlies shipping the old ice out and southerlies stuffing swells under the pack flexing the ice above and mixing the waters below? Storms used to keep to the ice edge and with this now being further into the basin lows could first mangle the pack and then actively push it into Fram as it travels east (N.East?).

Edited December 6, 2012 by Gray-Wolf

[Geordiesnow]

I know this may sound like a bit of a "noob" question, but I just can't see it being logically possible of ice struggling to form during the winter months, I mean if GW is predicting this, then how come the Sea of Okhotsk freezes over despite very warm temperatures during the summer months and of course being on the Pacific side of the basin, I mean even with large amounts of warming, the Arctic will never be as warm as that region in the summer so why how could sea ice struggle to form in cold temperatures for 6 months of the year?

What I think we will probably sadly see is a ever later Autumn refreeze, not really in terms of a late minimum but more in a slower growth during the Autumn months, as to some extent we have seen this Autumn although we could blame the very strong -AO for that but I feel even under an +AO, we may see a slower Autumn refreeze especially if strong winds hit against any growing ice pack.

[jethro]

I know this may sound like a bit of a "noob" question, but I just can't see it being logically possible of ice struggling to form during the winter months, I mean if GW is predicting this, then how come the Sea of Okhotsk freezes over despite very warm temperatures during the summer months and of course being on the Pacific side of the basin, I mean even with large amounts of warming, the Arctic will never be as warm as that region in the summer so why how could sea ice struggle to form in cold temperatures for 6 months of the year?

What I think we will probably sadly see is a ever later Autumn refreeze, not really in terms of a late minimum but more in a slower growth during the Autumn months, as to some extent we have seen this Autumn although we could blame the very strong -AO for that but I feel even under an +AO, we may see a slower Autumn refreeze especially if strong winds hit against any growing ice pack.

There's nothing noob about it, just plain old common sense and logic - it's a welcome relief from all the alarmist nonsense.

This makes it sound so much like the ice is capable of a complete melt out, even during the winter.

That will never happen.

[BornFromTheVoid]

...you catch more wasps with honey than vinegar...

I know this may sound like a bit of a "noob" question, but I just can't see it being logically possible of ice struggling to form during the winter months, I mean if GW is predicting this, then how come the Sea of Okhotsk freezes over despite very warm temperatures during the summer months and of course being on the Pacific side of the basin, I mean even with large amounts of warming, the Arctic will never be as warm as that region in the summer so why how could sea ice struggle to form in cold temperatures for 6 months of the year?

What I think we will probably sadly see is a ever later Autumn refreeze, not really in terms of a late minimum but more in a slower growth during the Autumn months, as to some extent we have seen this Autumn although we could blame the very strong -AO for that but I feel even under an +AO, we may see a slower Autumn refreeze especially if strong winds hit against any growing ice pack.

I guess the Arctic Ocean could be exposed to 24 hour daylight, which may help to heat it up more than Okhotsk. It's known from various studies that the Arctic tends to warm up rapidly. During the PETM the Arctic ocean temperatures got into the 20Cs, supporting "tropical" species. The sea of Okhotsk is very shallow, making cooling that bit easier. The shallow water effect is very clear in the Bering sea especially

I agree with you in general though. I think we're just likely to see eventual seasonal ice with an ever later regrowth and shrinking mean extent, but who knows!

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi G.S.!

BFTV got there first! The Arctic night will always be cold seeing as there is no sunlight but the Basin has warmth flow into it from the Atlantic. This water currently is only at the surface in Barrentsz and Kara but as the stratification of the ocean in the basin alters (with mixing and heating from above) then we will see the Atlantic bottom waters emerge from the depths. As we know there is enough energy there now to keep the Arctic ice free over winter so a warming planet will only add to this potential. In certain locations , as BFTV has pointed out, the cold land under an Arctic night can influence ice formation in the shallow shelf seas. Bering straights has been called the ice factory as with the correct conditions (as we have seen for 3 years now?) the ocean freezes in the straight and is blown out into Bering and more ice freezes behind. you then end up with a conveyor belt of ice flowing into Bering and plumping up extent there. Sadly the H.P. doing that is also drawing warm air over the East Siberian sea and we saw what effect that had on ice thickness there over last winter? Seeing as the submerged permafrost lies under this sea I'd prefer to see thivker , longer lasting ice there and none in Bering!!

[Geordiesnow]

Its all very complex I have to admit but I just think as a novice surely natural factors like 24/7 darkness, natural cold air forming over ocean and land will override any GW factors to prevent Arctic ice forming during the winter months but instead we will just have a lag effect.

In terms of the here and now, must admit, I think I might cover my eyes by this time next week because the outlook in terms of ice growth for Barents and Kara is looking very poor, strong southerly winds which look like may last quite a while. Meanwhile, it looks like there is a chance we may see record breaking(?) extent in the Bering Sea, the pattern we are going to face looks all so similar to last year with the exception that the Russian high is much further West.

I suppose the good news could be, its unlikely we will see Northerlies between Svalbard and Greenland which should help to prevent much of the thicker ice to leave fram hopefully.

[quest4peace]

Arctic 2m surface temps finally looking a lot colder, over a bigger area as of the latest temp map.

Green is Anywhere from 0c to -20c

Lighter blue seems to be about -19 to -25?

And dark blue is anything from -25 to -45c

DMI/COI | Centre for Ocean and Ice | [Arktis]

Edited December 9, 2012 by quest4peace

[BornFromTheVoid]

Back to lowest on record for the IJIS extent by 53k, with losses around Kara and Barents.

Just 151k off lowest on record on the NSIDC extent, after seeing a drop over the last 2 days.

Just a slight slow down yesterday on CT, so still 188k off lowest on record.

Doesn't look like there will be much change over the coming days, things either static or growing slowly. Southerly winds in Kara and Barents causing losses here while gains continue in Hudson Bay and the Bering sea.

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm afraid I expected a little more of the ice after such a large melt year? Maybe I'm listening to the wrong folk but I thought that high melt years meant that more cold and fresh water at the surface to rapidly freeze come Autumn?

As it is we see certain areas still not gaining the ice they historically held over winter?

Maybe we are seeing that the impacts of changing synoptics, driven by ice loss, feeding warm air over certain areas of the basin, that used to hold year around ice, whilst fuelling growth of seasonal ice in the lower latitudes?

What me all must be wary of are changes that signal that Arctic warming is now self sustaining with positive feedbacks ensuring further ice reduction over summer and allowing higher temps across the region/

For me I believe we passed that point a few years back but you must decide for yourself if there are signs that this has occurred.

[Methuselah]

Does that mean that next year's 'Sceptics' Log' will not show a 'recovery', for once?

[quest4peace]

2m sufaceTemps in all areas of the arctic looking colder and colder which i'm sure is to be expected except... you guessed it kara/barents?? will those deeper blues ever get over to our side at any point i wonder?

Edited December 14, 2012 by quest4peace

[BornFromTheVoid]

Lowest on record by 118k on IJIS now...

[Gray-Wolf]

2m sufaceTemps in all areas of the arctic looking colder and colder which i'm sure is to be expected except... you guessed it kara/barents?? will those deeper blues ever get over to our side at any point i wonder?

Well the past few years it has had to wait for near winters end to begin? If we are seeing ice losses impacting winter ice gain then will the past summers record losses be reflected in this winters re-freeze (in area and thickness?)?

The 'counterbalance for Area/extent looks like it will be Bering again as the H.P. allows the ice factory to fire up again. What happens if this occurs and though we see a record amount in Bering the basin still fails to make average?

Last summer it made average at winters end and yet still finished 18% below the past record low even though, according to the Arctic Report Card, Arctic temps have been unremarkable for the past 10years.

Will we ever find ourselves above the 07' min from here on in?

If so would that not be a remarkable feat in itself that an event needing a 'perfect Storm' of melt conditions, just 5 years ago, is now beaten by average summers time after time?

It's akin to the Global temp level it took a super nino to take us to now being ever more common place in average nino years?

In my way of seeing things Barrentsz and Kara have now spent 10 winters struggling to gain anything like 'average' ice levels. Let us not forget that expeditions in the 30's and 40's marvelled at the Massive Paleocryistic ice that used to reside ,year round, in these areas so we have seen an area that used to be involved in both the making and building of such ice turn into an area with poor ice levels. This conditions has occured over both positive and negative global drivers and has seen solar max's and mins without the trend being impacted. We are now seeing Baffin along the same route with Beaufort now also showing signs of gaint impacts (the beaufort Gyre has gone from a place Full of maturing Paleocryistic ice to one that actively destroys perennial ice over summer).

If the open water over Barrentsz and Kara has been seen to impact the atmosphere above them, esp. in autumn/early winter, then what will the addition of these other areas mean for the atmosphere over the Basin (and the teleconnections further south?) as they to exert similar impacts???

If gthe level of Arctic amplification that Barrentsz and Kara produced helped bring the losses to Beaufort and Baffin then how much greater will be that forcing with those areas now also contributing to the pot?

Let's wait and see what the winter brings ,both to the basin and to us further south?

[songster]

It's looking very likely that Svalbard will be completely ice free on the shortest day of the year. Has this ever happened before in the history of charting the ice?

Edited December 14, 2012 by songster

[BornFromTheVoid]

It's looking very likely that Svalbard will be completely ice free on the shortest day of the year. Has this ever happened before in the history of charting the ice?

1984 seems a good candidate.

[songster]

Fair enough :-)

[BornFromTheVoid]

Lowest on record now for both NSIDC and IJIS extent measurements, by 100k and 82k respectively. NSIDC daily extent is now lower than it was 5 days ago.

NSIDC

[quest4peace]

Well the past few years it has had to wait for near winters end to begin? If we are seeing ice losses impacting winter ice gain then will the past summers record losses be reflected in this winters re-freeze (in area and thickness?)?

The 'counterbalance for Area/extent looks like it will be Bering again as the H.P. allows the ice factory to fire up again. What happens if this occurs and though we see a record amount in Bering the basin still fails to make average?

Last summer it made average at winters end and yet still finished 18% below the past record low even though, according to the Arctic Report Card, Arctic temps have been unremarkable for the past 10years.

Will we ever find ourselves above the 07' min from here on in?

If so would that not be a remarkable feat in itself that an event needing a 'perfect Storm' of melt conditions, just 5 years ago, is now beaten by average summers time after time?

It's akin to the Global temp level it took a super nino to take us to now being ever more common place in average nino years?

In my way of seeing things Barrentsz and Kara have now spent 10 winters struggling to gain anything like 'average' ice levels. Let us not forget that expeditions in the 30's and 40's marvelled at the Massive Paleocryistic ice that used to reside ,year round, in these areas so we have seen an area that used to be involved in both the making and building of such ice turn into an area with poor ice levels. This conditions has occured over both positive and negative global drivers and has seen solar max's and mins without the trend being impacted. We are now seeing Baffin along the same route with Beaufort now also showing signs of gaint impacts (the beaufort Gyre has gone from a place Full of maturing Paleocryistic ice to one that actively destroys perennial ice over summer).

If the open water over Barrentsz and Kara has been seen to impact the atmosphere above them, esp. in autumn/early winter, then what will the addition of these other areas mean for the atmosphere over the Basin (and the teleconnections further south?) as they to exert similar impacts???

If gthe level of Arctic amplification that Barrentsz and Kara produced helped bring the losses to Beaufort and Baffin then how much greater will be that forcing with those areas now also contributing to the pot?

Let's wait and see what the winter brings ,both to the basin and to us further south?

Hi Gray Wolf Sorry it's taken so long to reply, but even my benefit of the doubt has dropped, regarding the ice situation Looking at how far above average the 2m temps have been above average during winter, it makes me wonder how long it will be before summer temps are that far above average? and so on. The bering sea is getting the ice, that should be on our side to my eye, is it simply down to the changed weather patterns? And does it mean there is a chance of conditions, where it may move back to more normal areas/ice levels our side?. Didn't know paleocrystic ice was the norm around that area? (Kara/Barents) just shows how much has changed doesn't it,i thought it had always been seasonal just proves what's gone on really

Edited December 16, 2012 by quest4peace

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Q4P!

I can't remember the chappies name but I believe he was a Norwegian Scientist that did a number of voyages into the Arctic through the 30's and 40's. Some deniers brought him to my attention by claiming his research showed basin wide ice levels similar to today through the 30's and 40's. Apart from showing no such thing the papers did show me just how massive the changes have been over this past 50yrs!

Even if the ice edge in some sectors occasionally lined up with todays (I'm sure the North Shore of the Canadian Archipelago has similar ice cover then as now?) the scale and size of the ice back then was wondrous! I think he also followed the massive ice island, that used to be a part of the ice shelf along Ellesmere Island (T3?), as it moved around the basin? (maybe that should have been our first warning of the breakup of the Arctic ice??? makes me wonder about the shelfs now collapsing around Antarctica and the message they are bringing us?).

I'm sure if you google "Arctic ice levels the same as in the 1930's" you'll find the chap and then just search out the papers not pay-walled?

[Gray-Wolf]

Have I mis-interpretted what occured to the North of Greenland?

Take a look at the above image, blow it up and focus on the 'open water' to the north of Greenland?

That is ice below the water is it not? Have the southerlies just flooded the region?

[Interitus]

Temperature for Cap Morris Jesup in the range -20 to -30 for the past few days, but there have been winds with a southerly component, must be wind stress on the ice pack where it cleared before.

Edited December 17, 2012 by Interitus

[quest4peace]

Have I mis-interpretted what occured to the North of Greenland?

Take a look at the above image, blow it up and focus on the 'open water' to the north of Greenland?

That is ice below the water is it not? Have the southerlies just flooded the region?

Just a question but, If it is indeed just flooded and not a gaping hole would that infact help the thickness of ice there if the flood waters were to freeze on top? Wildly out there suggestion admittedly but any merit to that question?

SSt's aren't looking as disastrous in the basin but just look at the Huge sst anoms still around svalbard? and the nw coastal area of norway/ iceland

Edited December 17, 2012 by quest4peace

[BornFromTheVoid]

After some very strong gains earlier in the week, we've seen a slow down or loss in extent since.

Extent-wise, we're currently 2nd lowest on record, ahead of just 2010 on both the NSIDC and IJIS extent.

With the NSIDC values, 2010 was the first year not to reach 13 million km2 before the end of December, so something to keep an eye on this year to see if we manage it for only a second time.

NSIDC

IJIS

Cryosphere Today is stuck back on the 18th, but some interesting things going on there still.

In the Bering sea, we're already 100,000km2 above average, which is also 100,000km2 where last year was at this stage. Something to look out for is if the Bering Sea area maximum exceeds the Okhotsk maximum, something which has never happened before, but was quite close last year.

On the opposite end of the scale, both the Kara and Barents seas are way below average, by 350,000km2 and 300,000km2 respectively

[BornFromTheVoid]

A drop of 128k on IJIS this morning, taking us down to just 17k off being lowest on record yet again. Much of the loss appears to be from the Barents sea and central Arctic, as the ice pushes even further north of Svalbard.

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/cgi-bin/seaice-monitor.cgi?lang=e

[4wd]

Presumably wind-driven compaction, creating pressure ridges yards deep further north.