Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[UV-RAY]

If cooling continues then hopefully we won't see such a strong PV setting up shop as we saw last year, a straw to clutch maybe plus it's still very much early days. Also I would have thought having heights over the pole already would help in any warming of the Strat?

[EML Network]

RIGHT !!...that's IT..I'm getting on a plane to the North Pole armed with a million tins of baked beans...anyone fancy coming ?

[johnholmes]

I truly despair of some folk on Net Wx. Even when chio posts objective posts some idiot jumps on his/her scooter and rushes round saying winter is over.

Just where di chio either say that or even hint at that?

repeated into the winter 2012-13 thread as its just as daft at the moment in there.

It really would be nice for some folk to learn to walk before pretending they can run.

I have very little idea about the Stratosphere but am trying to learn-why don't some of you lot do the same.

This winter, whatever it shows and especially IF it does not have lots of cold and snow is going to be real pain on this forum.

[syed2878]

so chio from reading today's posts from u it may not be a good start to w2012-13? Or have i got the wrong end of the stick?

[phil nw.]

I truly despair of some folk on Net Wx. Even when chio posts objective posts some idiot jumps on his/her scooter and rushes round saying winter is over.

Just where di chio either say that or even hint at that?

repeated into the winter 2012-13 thread as its just as daft at the moment in there.

It really would be nice for some folk to learn to walk before pretending they can run.

I have very little idea about the Stratosphere but am trying to learn-why don't some of you lot do the same.

This winter, whatever it shows and especially IF it does not have lots of cold and snow is going to be real pain on this forum.

In addition to John`s plea for sanity just a little request.Some posters,perhaps new to this part of the forum, jump to wrong conclusions and drive everybody mad.

Have a read of Chiono`s opening post in this thread-it explains the basic workings and effects of the state of the stratosphere.

It`s not as straightforward as looking at normal weather charts and like John said we are still learning-me included.

Any serious questions then ask away but please whatever else try and think and read up a bit before posting in here.

Thanks.

[UV-RAY]

In addition to John`s plea for sanity just a little request.Some posters,perhaps new to this part of the forum, jump to wrong conclusions and drive everybody mad.

Have a read of Chiono`s opening post in this thread-it explains the basic workings and effects of the state of the stratosphere.

It`s not as straightforward as looking at normal weather charts and like John said we are still learning-me included.

Any serious questions then ask away but please whatever else try and think and read up a bit before posting in here.

Thanks.

Mine was a serious question as heights over the pole should help promote warming of the Strat. Maybe I shouldn't bother posting in here then, if it upsets our senior met man.

[phil nw.]

Mine was a serious question as heights over the pole should help promote warming of the Strat. Maybe I shouldn't bother posting in here then, if it upsets our senior met man.

We are just asking that folks who are new to this just try and read up a bit,maybe ask questions if not sure.We are concerned that some are just jumping in with knee jerk-winter is over -type comments because they have read something about the Stratosphere cooling.

Edited October 20, 2012 by phil n.warks.

[johnholmes]

Mine was a serious question as heights over the pole should help promote warming of the Strat. Maybe I shouldn't bother posting in here then, if it upsets our senior met man.

no it was not intended to yourself but was my rather blunt way compared to the much more diplomatic request from phil.

[Methuselah]

We really do need to keep stratospheric temperature-profiles in some sort of perspective, I think...As far as I'm aware, they are simply one of many potentially-important indicators of what may happen; and, as such, need be considered alongside all the others. And not taken in isolation?

[UV-RAY]

no it was not intended to yourself but was my rather blunt way compared to the much more diplomatic request from phil.

Apologies John, especially the senior bit of my rant.

[johnholmes]

Apologies John, especially the senior bit of my rant.

no worries and re your question, not for me drop chio a line if he has not seen your question yet

[chionomaniac]

If cooling continues then hopefully we won't see such a strong PV setting up shop as we saw last year, a straw to clutch maybe plus it's still very much early days. Also I would have thought having heights over the pole already would help in any warming of the Strat?

Yes, that certainly helps which is why I posted the 100 hPa chart.

[UV-RAY]

Yes, that certainly helps which is why I posted the 100 hPa chart.

If those heights remain during the next few weeks would this be enough to disrupt the PV from gaining a foothold?

[chionomaniac]

If those heights remain during the next few weeks would this be enough to disrupt the PV from gaining a foothold?

Not if the upper strat cools dramatically. I would guess that that signal would eventually override any tropospheric one.

Remember my last years motto: I have yet to see trop HLB's in a very cold strong strat vortex situation but would love to be proved wrong.

Not that we are anywhere near that at this moment.

[UV-RAY]

Thanks for clearing that up Chio, I always struggled with the chicken or egg analogy regarding which comes first the warming or height rises.

[lorenzo]

Going to throw in a couple of more links here relating to BDC, EP Flux, Ozone Transport and impact on Stratosphere.

BDC Workshop Switzerland June 2012 http://www.atmosp.physics.utoronto.ca/C-SPARC/BDC-WS/Abstracts.htm

Some of these papers will be worth digging out.

SPARC Data Centre http://www.sparc.sunysb.edu/ Scientist required to sort through this lot !

Further Datasets http://www.sparc.sunysb.edu/html/data_links.html

C - not sure if this one is on the papers thread, looks good

Stratospheric versus Tropospheric Control of the Strength and Structure of

the Brewer–Dobson Circulation

gerber-JAS-2012.pdf

[MattH]

It'll be interesting to see where we go from this now throughout November. Clearly there are some negative signs creeping into the equation which Chino clearly describes well in a previous post. The drop in temperatures to below climate averages is evident on the below 2 images and this is followed by particularly poor charts in terms of ozone levels. I know these are still yesterday's GFS charts, but the overall consistency is there...

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole30_n.html

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/html_e/pole10_n.html

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_o3mr_10_nh_f120.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t10_nh_f120.gif

There are still some signs of warming however, particularly at and below 30hPa, but clearly this warming is required at even higher altitudes as well;

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t30_nh_f120.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t50_nh_f120.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/strat_a_f/gif_files/gfs_t30_nh_f168.gif

The current blocking pattern that is expected to develop more particularly later in the week and bring the first cold spell of the autumn season to the UK without question has been aided by the MJO of late, which has been in a phase 1, again something which has been discussed on recent pages. Clearly up to present the polar vortex really hasn't got going in any shape or form and to an extent this northern blocking during late October isn't a surprise if you look at other variables. This particular October will, without question, not go down as a wet, windy or even stormy autumn month for the UK.

The overnight 120hr UKMO FAX chart really does strongly signal a -NAO pattern indeed and clearly the synoptics are that similar to 09/10;

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/brack4.gif

You could say this kind of pattern has come too early, but apart from that being a more personal and emotional statement for those who like cold weather, there's nothing that can be done whether it arrived now or on the 1st of December. What should be 'enjoyed' by those who like cold weather is clearly some particularly cold and crisp conditions later in the week and into next weekend thanks to HLB.

In my opinion it is still early days yet. Clearly the lack of ozone and distinct drop in temperatures would tend to signal a likely progression towards lower pressure across higher latitudes in the coming weeks and perhaps a spell of more unsettled and zonal-type conditions. But with regards to what late November and into December will be like is still too early to tell. Clearly, and as I mentioned in a previous post, if we end up heading down a similar route to what developed last November then the outlook for any cold weather at the start of the winter would be relatively low, but for now there's plenty of stratospheric monitoring to do before we all start to right off the first half of Winter, which I stress please don't do!...

Regards to all and have a good week ahead, of which will be an enjoyable one from a synoptics point of view and I, as a fan of cold weather, will look forward to the cold front passage on Thu into Fri!...

Matt.

[phil nw.]

Thanks Matt.I was about to post something similar wrt signs higher up of the expected cooling.

I will just post a couple of images from the ECM instead just showing a gradual increase in zonal winds forecasted down to 10hPa.

Nothing too dramatic yet but i guess to be expected now we are heading towards November.

[lorenzo]

Spotted those last night too Phil. A mean looking patch of crimson at 1hpa for the 10 day forecast. The Wave 2 table on FU Berlin is an interesting review in hindsight looking back at the analysis from around October 10th. Need Ed to explain it further though.

[AWD]

Here's the latest 30hpa Temperature chart which confirms the above, with below average temperatures currently.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/STRAT/gif/pole30_nh.gif

[bobbydog]

Here's the latest 30hpa Temperature chart which confirms the above, with below average temperatures currently.

http://ds.data.jma.g...f/pole30_nh.gif

it may not stay that way though, the PV is currently directly over the pole. that could well change with forecast height rises?

[bluearmy]

it may not stay that way though, the PV is currently directly over the pole. that could well change with forecast height rises?

Don't confuse the trop vortex (which is seen on the model charts gfs,ECM etc) with the upper strat. The 100hpa strat charts equate bery closely with the trop 500mb heights charts we look at so many times each day as 100hp is at the bottom of the strat where it meets the top of the trop. The 30hpa temps in the strat are much higher up and events in the trop such as blocking over the pole will not directly affect what happens so high up in the strat. (Though that can happen some time later via a wave breaking into the strat from the trop). Anyway, looking at the current temp forecast at 30hpa, expect that chart to continue to show below av until we get to November when the forecast temp cuts across the dropping average.

[bobbydog]

Don't confuse the trop vortex (which is seen on the model charts gfs,ECM etc) with the upper strat. The 100hpa strat charts equate bery closely with the trop 500mb heights charts we look at so many times each day as 100hp is at the bottom of the strat where it meets the top of the trop. The 30hpa temps in the strat are much higher up and events in the trop such as blocking over the pole will not directly affect what happens so high up in the strat. (Though that can happen some time later via a wave breaking into the strat from the trop). Anyway, looking at the current temp forecast at 30hpa, expect that chart to continue to show below av until we get to November when the forecast temp cuts across the dropping average.

i'm on a steep learning curve here! i was just guessing that the trop reflects the state of the strat (i know there is a lag) and the lack of organisation of the vortex (forecast) was giving the impression that cooling may not be as quick as is feared. (here's hoping!)

[bluearmy]

i'm on a steep learning curve here! i was just guessing that the trop reflects the state of the strat (i know there is a lag) and the lack of organisation of the vortex (forecast) was giving the impression that cooling may not be as quick as is feared. (here's hoping!)

It does, especially when there is a strong strat vortex or weak one. I got the impression from your original post that you were thinking the trop pressure pattern would influence the strat conditions but its pretty well always the other way around when relevant. Sure the trop can affect the strat via wave breaking but that would take some time to propagate up to the 30hpa level we see on the chart referred to, if indeed it managed to have an effect. And when it comes to the strat, we are all still learning.

[bobbydog]

It does, especially when there is a strong strat vortex or weak one. I got the impression from your original post that you were thinking the trop pressure pattern would influence the strat conditions but its pretty well always the other way around when relevant. Sure the trop can affect the strat via wave breaking but that would take some time to propagate up to the 30hpa level we see on the chart referred to, if indeed it managed to have an effect. And when it comes to the strat, we are all still learning.

i suppose that now we are aware of the importance of the strat, it will be interesting to see the correlations and effects on the PV as we move into winter, whichever way it goes. would also be interesting to see if there are any over-riding factors which can come into play.