Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[lorenzo]

Am a coldie this morning thats for sure.

@Matt thanks for the continued Ecm updates, its frustrating that they dont share that data publicly.

[bluearmy]

For coldies, if the strat plays ball then the troposphere is ready for the taking!

I think that certainly looks the case ed. I would expect the cold mid strat to begin to show its hand re the p/v over the next weeks deep fi output. (If its going to over ride the current trop propensity for HLB). At the moment, no sign on the week 2 modelling that any change to the meridianal pattern is coming.

Regarding ed's CW, the last frames of the gfs 06z run have temps of -36c headed towards the Canadian sector................... Not something I remember seeing since sylvan has been showing these charts. Long way off though.

Edited October 26, 2012 by bluearmy

[chionomaniac]

Better ozone forecast than I have seen in a while.

[phil nw.]

Better ozone forecast than I have seen in a while.

Let`s hope,from a coldies pov,that help us down the line Ed.

As suspected that wave number 1 is forecasted to cool out without filtering down to lower levels.

Notice though that plenty of energy forecast going into the southern arm of the jet.

Reflecting the trophospheric modelling of the southern jet across Iberia and into the med.-so mild zonal not on the cards -yet.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Better ozone forecast than I have seen in a while.

It'd be nice to get the strat to play ball. However, I see GP remains bullish for prospects; describing a 'loaded gun' scenario for a signifficant warming at some point. I believe this is due to an antagonistic reaction to the big warming that occurred over the southern hemisphere, with ozone flooding back to the northern hemisphere?

[EML Network]

Forgive me if this is in the wrong thread, or if I'm talking cods whallop with this post, but I thought it might be of some relevance

CFS for Early / Mid December is showing an interesting development ...correct me I am wrong (which I most likely am) ..is this a split polar vortex ??

[Panayiotis]

Forgive me if this is in the wrong thread, or if I'm talking cods whallop with this post, but I thought it might be of some relevance

CFS for Early / Mid December is showing an interesting development ...correct me I am wrong (which I most likely am) ..is this a split polar vortex ??

Not really for this thread tbh and also its a month away, it will probably change!

[chionomaniac]

For the first time this season, mean zonal winds forecast to exceed 20m/s at 30hpa. (T192). Not a trend we want to see become established. Whilst its at day 8, its far enough away to be unreliable. Of course, there is no guarantee that the zonal wind increase will propagate to the lower layers of the strat but its more likely than unlikely. Something else to keep tabs on.

I could mention some warming at 30hpa on the forecasts to balance this post.

It's there again on the 12Z, Nick......

courtesy of NW extra.

[bluearmy]

It's there again on the 12Z, Nick......

courtesy of NW extra.

and also at 10hpa ed (free on meteociel)..................

[chionomaniac]

and also at 10hpa ed (free on meteociel)..................

I know - I had the 10hpa charts alongside the 30 hPa ones whilst looking at the 10 and 30 hPa previous runs below them (on NW extra) hee hee.

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's there again on the 12Z, Nick......

courtesy of NW extra.

At this junture, any warming has to be good?

[chionomaniac]

At this junture, any warming has to be good?

It is a bit tongue in cheek, cc. The warming is out at the extremes of FI - but so was last Januarys at one point!

[Cheshire Freeze]

It is a bit tongue in cheek, cc. The warming is out at the extremes of FI - but so was last Januarys at one point!

Aye, I'd much rather see potential warming (however small) appear in November than later on. If we can get some warming going on, maybe December is less likely to be written off!

[UV-RAY]

It is a bit tongue in cheek, cc. The warming is out at the extremes of FI - but so was last Januarys at one point!

I was under the impression that warming of the stratosphere only takes place from November onwards?

[AWD]

I was under the impression that warming of the stratosphere only takes place from November onwards?

The above chart is for 11th November?

[UV-RAY]

The above chart is for 11th November?

Thanks, I don't how I missed the date.

[Glacier Point]

For the first time this season, mean zonal winds forecast to exceed 20m/s at 30hpa. (T192). Not a trend we want to see become established. Whilst its at day 8, its far enough away to be unreliable. Of course, there is no guarantee that the zonal wind increase will propagate to the lower layers of the strat but its more likely than unlikely. Something else to keep tabs on.

I could mention some warming at 30hpa on the forecasts to balance this post.

..check out what happens prior to warming events Nick w/r/t zonal wind flows. They generally peak intensity at around 30 m/s to 40 m/s. Without the cooperation of the troposphere, these increases effectively induce a vertical torque which blows the whole thing apart.

I think Ed has every justification to call a CW during November on this basis.

[snowking]

For the first time this (incoming) winter, we are not cooling at 30mb:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/30mb9065.gif

Similar at 10mb:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/10mb9065.gif

Very slight but steady increases in ozone over the pole too:

http://exp-studies.tor.ec.gc.ca/ozone/images/graphs/o3_hrmaps_dev/current.gif

Nothing substantial at all but I'd much rather see things going in this direction than the other

SK

[bluearmy]

..check out what happens prior to warming events Nick w/r/t zonal wind flows. They generally peak intensity at around 30 m/s to 40 m/s. Without the cooperation of the troposphere, these increases effectively induce a vertical torque which blows the whole thing apart.

I think Ed has every justification to call a CW during November on this basis.

The obvious question is 'what causes the trop not to cooperate?'

Are there dates we can look at to see what the trop situation was when these occurred?

[sebastiaan1973]

The average area covered by the Antarctic ozone hole this year was the second smallest in the last 20 years, according to data from NASA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) satellites. Scientists attribute the change to warmer temperatures in the Antarctic lower stratosphere.

The ozone hole reached its maximum size Sept. 22, covering 8.2 million square miles (21.2 million square kilometers), or the area of the United States, Canada and Mexico combined. The average size of the 2012 ozone hole was 6.9 million square miles (17.9 million square kilometers). The Sept. 6, 2000 ozone hole was the largest on record at 11.5 million square miles (29.9 million square kilometers).

"The ozone hole mainly is caused by chlorine from human-produced chemicals, and these chlorine levels are still sizable in the Antarctic stratosphere," said NASA atmospheric scientist Paul Newman of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md. "Natural fluctuations in weather patterns resulted in warmer stratospheric temperatures this year. These temperatures led to a smaller ozone hole."

The ozone layer acts as Earth's natural shield against ultraviolet radiation, which can cause skin cancer. The ozone hole phenomenon began making a yearly appearance in the early 1980s. The Antarctic ozone layer likely will not return to its early 1980s state until about 2065, Newman said. The lengthy recovery is because of the long lifetimes of ozone-depleting substances in the atmosphere. Overall atmospheric ozone no longer is declining as concentrations of ozone-depleting substances decrease. The decrease is the result of an international agreement regulating the production of certain chemicals.

This year also showed a change in the concentration of ozone over the Antarctic. The minimum value of total ozone in the ozone hole was the second highest level in two decades. Total ozone, measured in Dobson units (DU), reached 124 DU on Oct. 1. NOAA ground-based measurements at the South Pole recorded 136 DU on Oct. 5. When the ozone hole is not present, total ozone typically ranges from 240-500 DU.

This is the first year growth of the ozone hole has been observed by an ozone-monitoring instrument on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (NPP) satellite. The instrument, called the Ozone Mapping Profiler Suite (OMPS), is based on previous instruments, such as the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet instrument (SBUV/2), which have flown on multiple satellites. OMPS continues a satellite record dating back to the early 1970s.

In addition to observing the annual formation and extent of the ozone hole, scientists hope OMPS will help them better understand ozone destruction in the middle and upper stratosphere with its Nadir Profiler. Ozone variations in the lower stratosphere will be measured with its Limb Profiler.

"OMPS Limb looks sideways, and it can measure ozone as a function of height," said Pawan K. Bhartia, a NASA atmospheric physicist and OMPS Limb instrument lead. "This OMPS instrument allows us to more closely see the vertical development of Antarctic ozone depletion in the lower stratosphere where the ozone hole occurs."

NASA and NOAA have been monitoring the ozone layer on the ground and with a variety of instruments on satellites and balloons since the 1970s. Long-term ozone monitoring instruments have included TOMS, SBUV/2, Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment series of instruments, the Microwave Limb Sounder, the Ozone Monitoring Instrument, and the OMPS instrument on Suomi NPP. Suomi NPP is a bridging mission leading to the next-generation polar-orbiting environmental satellites called the Joint Polar Satellite System, which will extend ozone monitoring into the 2030s.

NASA and NOAA have a mandate under the Clean Air Act to monitor ozone-depleting gases and stratospheric depletion of ozone. NOAA complies with this mandate by monitoring ozone via ground and satellite measurements. The NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory in Boulder, Colo., performs the ground-based monitoring. The Climate Prediction Center performs the satellite monitoring.

Source: Nasa

[sebastiaan1973]

There was a huge jump in snowcover today due to a storm in Europe. Europe will remain stormy the next 48 hours. There's only 4 more days to record, and I would put 50-50 odds that we'll match or exceed 2009. This is a really strong signal for a negative AO this winter. SAI and AO have a 0.86 correlation according to Cohen's paper.

Another important aspect of this year's advance is that we had overall higher daily extents than in 2009. (The y-intercept is higher.) I presume that this will strengthen the signal of the SAI due to the enhanced albedo effect.

Given this SAI signal, the persistently negative AO/NAO this fall, and the warm/cold/warm tripole in the Atlantic, blocking and cold air intrustions should be frequent this winter. With a weak El Nino signal out of the Pacific, the blocking is critical.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/34743-winter-2012-2013/page__st__2730#entry1821542

[Cloud 10]

and also at 10hpa ed (free on meteociel)..................

Into the 10 day range now.

Continues to evolve well into FI.

[MR EXTREMES]

Into the 10 day range now.

Continues to evolve well into FI.

Vortex looking likely to increase and warming now looking less likely had a look at strat data on all models for warming event looks likely we could be waiting a longtime.

Infact I don't have a crystalball but its setting up like last winter.

Even tho my confidence were high in the model thread.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Into the 10 day range now.

Continues to evolve well into FI.

That -80 doesn't look too promising!

[summer blizzard]

That -80 doesn't look too promising!

The net effect on the stratosphere would be +4 from the day 10 chart (-4+) so a small warming but nothing big..

Edited October 29, 2012 by summer blizzard