Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[Cloud 10]

18Z run splits the vortex right up to 10 hPa!!!!

Things looking "stretchy" even at 1mb!

Instant Weather Maps

[FrenchScotPilot1]

_{Well all this is consistent with the NAO going negative during the 3rd week of November. We could be getting an arctic shot for early December.} Edited November 15, 2012 by FrenchScotPilot1

[bluearmy]

_{Well all this is consistent with the NAO going negative during the 3rd week of November. We could be getting an arctic shot for early December.}

There would be a lag in trop patterns from strat upper behaviour in next two weeks. However, if the split is trop led from below, we would see an immediate effect, though it might not be sustained.

[feb1991blizzard]

Haven't seen a chart forecast like this (FI I know) since 2 winters ago.

Unfortunately, the 0z does not look as good.

[bluearmy]

Unfortunately, the 0z does not look as good.

It couldn't look any better than the 18z ! The warming out of east asia continues to show and the vortex is still stretched though not split. One run but the trend maintained.

Edited November 15, 2012 by bluearmy

[feb1991blizzard]

It couldn't look any better than the 18z ! The warming out of east asia continues to show and the vortex is still stretched though not split. One run but the trend maintained.

What about the split though BA, its gone?

So are the warmer colours been shown around asia more important than the actual stratospheric vortex been split around GL?

Edited November 15, 2012 by feb1991blizzard

[lorenzo]

C, can you recall where the post is where you worked through the table below. Was looking to re-visit that in respect of looking at possible solar activity years and looking at new analogs for December?

Edited November 15, 2012 by lorenzo

[Glacier Point]

Interesting to look at analogues for cold stratosphere Novembers....

Current data:

Analogues:

Rolled forward into December..

This seems to suggest a bit of a reversal and also look where the warming is centred. The warm bubble starting to appear on long range forecasts is in this locale and it reaffirms my view that polar stratosphere will have a very displaced look about it this winter, with the Pacific side warmer, at least to start.

We are still on course for a lot of 'action' around early December (modelling late November) in the stratosphere thanks to lagged influence on wave 2 activity.

[chionomaniac]

C, can you recall where the post is where you worked through the table below. Was looking to re-visit that in respect of looking at possible solar activity years and looking at new analogs for December?

It was in a winter thread about two threads ago. Also have yoou seen the chat on american wx regarding increased solar flux effect on the strat.

[Gael_Force]

Lorenzo. forum.netweather.tv/topic/74637-winter-2012-2013-part-3/page__st__606

[lorenzo]

Yes, spotted that on Tuesday evening, quietly mentioned it in fun fair post. Quite grim reading ! Another thought I had was the raw QBO data where October ranked I think in top 5 - a lot of teleconnections playing each other.

With the QBO at that figure, tropical pipe intact so perhaps this is origin of 1hpa signals?

Edit, phone has mind and dictionary of its own!

Edited November 15, 2012 by lorenzo

[UV-RAY]

It was in a winter thread about two threads ago. Also have yoou seen the chat on american wx regarding increased solar flux effect on the strat.

Does an increase in solar flux impact the Stratosphere within weeks or suddenly? Also are solar flux levels continuing to rise?

Edit; Just viewed the current solar flux index and it does show a rise over the last month or so. What is also interesting is any decline seems to have an immediate impact, or to my untrained eye it does.

Edited November 15, 2012 by Seven of Nine

[Suburban Streamer]

Interesting to look at analogues for cold stratosphere Novembers....

Another mirror image to add to the list then...

[MattH]

Just for the record, as I did with the ECMWF seasonal update, the EUROSIP model has updated today which takes into consideration the ECMWF, UKMO, Meteo-France and NCEP longer term information and this update has changed in favour of the majority of the other seasonal forecast models and now signals a mild, wet and zonal winter period.

The model for the 3 month period of D/J/F points towards higher than average pressure to the south and south-west of the UK and lower than average pressure to the north or north-west of the UK and hence a general +NAO pattern in particular.

Either the majority of the seasonal models are going to fail miserably this winter now, or all the early signs which pointed (still point) towards a colder and more blocked winter will win out.

Fascinating, but to be honest, I am slightly on edge now given this update as overall combining the UKMO seasonal model with the ECMWF seasonal model and now the EUROSIP model makes, in my opinion, quite a noteworthy and powerful data set which all point towards zonal and predominantly mild.

M.

[gottolovethisweather]

Just for the record, as I did with the ECMWF seasonal update, the EUROSIP model has updated today which takes into consideration the ECMWF, UKMO, Meteo-France and NCEP longer term information and this update has changed in favour of the majority of the other seasonal forecast models and now signals a mild, wet and zonal winter period.

The model for the 3 month period of D/J/F points towards higher than average pressure to the south and south-west of the UK and lower than average pressure to the north or north-west of the UK and hence a general +NAO pattern in particular.

Either the majority of the seasonal models are going to fail miserably this winter now, or all the early signs which pointed (still point) towards a colder and more blocked winter will win out.

Fascinating, but to be honest, I am slightly on edge now given this update as overall combining the UKMO seasonal model with the ECMWF seasonal model and now the EUROSIP model makes, in my opinion, quite a noteworthy and powerful data set which all point towards zonal and predominantly mild.

M.

Yuk.

How often are these models updated, more especially the first two you mention. Because I imagine, they will also be likely to tip the other way, with regard to the bottled up cold scenarios. My hunch and that is all it is, using in part, the fantastic analysis provided within these forums, I am going for a cool to cold zonal based winter. From my viewpoint, I imagine knife-edge snow scenarios will arise on many an occasion throughout the winter. Some places witnessing a lot of snow and others having to put up with a lot of rain.

Thanks for your intelligent input Matt and others, I will watch things develop with bated breath.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just for the record, as I did with the ECMWF seasonal update, the EUROSIP model has updated today which takes into consideration the ECMWF, UKMO, Meteo-France and NCEP longer term information and this update has changed in favour of the majority of the other seasonal forecast models and now signals a mild, wet and zonal winter period.

The model for the 3 month period of D/J/F points towards higher than average pressure to the south and south-west of the UK and lower than average pressure to the north or north-west of the UK and hence a general +NAO pattern in particular.

Either the majority of the seasonal models are going to fail miserably this winter now, or all the early signs which pointed (still point) towards a colder and more blocked winter will win out.

Fascinating, but to be honest, I am slightly on edge now given this update as overall combining the UKMO seasonal model with the ECMWF seasonal model and now the EUROSIP model makes, in my opinion, quite a noteworthy and powerful data set which all point towards zonal and predominantly mild.

M.

I think it's a matter of stratospheric signals at the time of initiation which has caused these models to go mild. I especially thought this with the METO seasonal which flipped in the space of a month (after 2 months of northern blocking signals), perhaps owing to the colder than usual strat starting data. As a wildcard, it's possible this strat data has led the seasonals down the garden path. We can only hope.

Also, the CFS which went through a very mild patch for a month has once again started to show some promising colder trends/runs which may (or may not) be as a result of picking up on the synoptics which may help to disintegrate the vortex

Edited November 15, 2012 by CreweCold

[Don]

I think it's a matter of stratospheric signals at the time of initiation which has caused these models to go mild. I especially thought this with the METO seasonal which flipped in the space of a month (after 2 months of northern blocking signals), perhaps owing to the colder than usual strat starting data. As a wildcard, it's possible this strat data has led the seasonals down the garden path. We can only hope.

Also, the CFS which went through a very mild patch for a month has once again started to show some promising colder trends/runs which may (or may not) be as a result of picking up on the synoptics which may help to disintegrate the vortex

I think it's a matter of stratospheric signals at the time of initiation which has caused these models to go mild. I especially thought this with the METO seasonal which flipped in the space of a month (after 2 months of northern blocking signals), perhaps owing to the colder than usual strat starting data. As a wildcard, it's possible this strat data has led the seasonals down the garden path. We can only hope.

Also, the CFS which went through a very mild patch for a month has once again started to show some promising colder trends/runs which may (or may not) be as a result of picking up on the synoptics which may help to disintegrate the vortex

I do hope your theory is correct regarding the model flip CC as long range model watching has been a bit of a kick in the stomach this week! My other recent concern is the increase in solar flux which may hinder us getting a more favourable strat? Other on here seem to be hinting this as a possibility?

Edited November 15, 2012 by Don

[sebastiaan1973]

Just for the record, as I did with the ECMWF seasonal update, the EUROSIP model has updated today which takes into consideration the ECMWF, UKMO, Meteo-France and NCEP longer term information and this update has changed in favour of the majority of the other seasonal forecast models and now signals a mild, wet and zonal winter period.

The model for the 3 month period of D/J/F points towards higher than average pressure to the south and south-west of the UK and lower than average pressure to the north or north-west of the UK and hence a general +NAO pattern in particular.

Either the majority of the seasonal models are going to fail miserably this winter now, or all the early signs which pointed (still point) towards a colder and more blocked winter will win out.

Fascinating, but to be honest, I am slightly on edge now given this update as overall combining the UKMO seasonal model with the ECMWF seasonal model and now the EUROSIP model makes, in my opinion, quite a noteworthy and powerful data set which all point towards zonal and predominantly mild.

M.

I wonder how good are these models in integrating the Stratosphere?

[Gael_Force]

The JMA have a strat monitoring section - here's their winter forecast fresh 'off the presses' today.

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/4mE/map1/pztmap.php

[phil nw.]

Continuing signs of wave number 2 rippling up and down the levels.

and still weak zonal means modelled lower down.

Hopefully this just reigns in a rampant Trophospheric vortex for a while longer keeping it disorganised untill we see further wave breaking.

[Glacier Point]

Consider a 20 day time lag from strong ridge development through to wave 2 activity registering in the stratosphere..

Current GFS projection at 30mb

Pattern centred on 20 days previous

This would appear to correlate with the stratospheric ridges, more particularly North Pacific.

Rolled forward another 5 days, should we look for the angle of attack to change, perhaps from a ridge originating in Siberia ?

Before another wave (wave 2) of attacks in the North Pacific timed for mid December based on current GFS ensemble means ?

Questionable how much of a vortex will be left by then.

Edited November 15, 2012 by Glacier Point

[Suburban Streamer]

I think it's a matter of stratospheric signals at the time of initiation which has caused these models to go mild.

This link from the ecm website gives some info on eurosip and says that there are 52 ensemble members that make up the eurosip seasonal forecasts and of those 52 members, 4 have start date of 1st of each month and the remaining 48 have start dates from the last 12 days of the preceding month.

http://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/seasonal/documentation/eurosip/index.html

Edited November 15, 2012 by Suburban Streamer

[Nimbus Nix]

That's not the beginnings of an SSW is it?

[Panayiotis]

-

Edited November 15, 2012 by panayiotis

[bluearmy]

That's not the beginnings of an SSW is it?

i rather doubt it tim. there are signs of some warmings at high levels and this is one of them reflected at 2hpa which is almost as high as you can go in the strat. given that the temp was very low, i suspect there has to be an adjustment higher at some point. an SSW is defined by the mean zonal winds reversing at 10hpa at 60N. we look a fair way from anything like that occuring. looking at stewarts posts today, i dont think we'll need one to disrupt the vortex anyway. (if he's right and so far this month, much of what he's forecast has come to fruition on the models.)