Stratosphere Temperature Watch 2012/2013

[-uksnow-]

Just for info the latest GFS run has the vortex back to Siberia at the end!

Good or bad for cold?

[chris55]

Good or bad for cold?

I would say it's good as heights would rise behind it in the Greenland are with northerly winds for our region.

[sebastiaan1973]

Excellent EC32 this morning with large areas of Europe in week 2/3 to cold, in Russia even area's -6c<> -10c to cold. But even in the western parts of the UK in this week 3-6 degrees too cold, elsewhere 1-3 too cold. Week 3 still shows 1-3 too cold for the time of the year. Quite sure Matt will give some more details.

Edited December 4, 2012 by sebastiaan1973

[lorenzo]

QBO raw data has updated. November with a strong result -18.95.

http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data

This if I remember correctly after quite an energetic start to the month for the vortex means that the QBO phase held up quite strongly for the remainder of November. Only one background element to everything, but of note in the whole jigsaw of winter so far..

[snowking]

And flux forecast this morning

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/fluxes.gif

Still poleward!

Zonal winds expected to level off at around 20m/s after a brief rise (following a brief fall), and some very feint signs of wave 2 increase towards the end of the forecast period once again (though nothing yet significant)

http://wekuw.met.fu-berlin.de/~Aktuell/strat-www/wdiag/figs/ecmwf1/ecmwfzm_ha2_f240.gif

SK

Edited December 4, 2012 by snowking

[chionomaniac]

How reassurring is this to see!

http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/12/04/cold-weather-clue-in-upper-atmosphere/

Again after all the time I have spent on the stratosphere thread trying to convince people of this, it is great to see the ukmo re-affirming all that has been said for so long.

[Polar Maritime]

How reassurring is this to see!

http://metofficenews...per-atmosphere/

Again after all the time I have spent on the stratosphere thread trying to convince people of this, it is great to see the ukmo re-affirming all that has been said for so long.

Yes Chio... Makes you wander where they got the idea from...

[lorenzo]

Great update from the Met, completely agree - positive affirmation of a lot of time and work, well done C they really ought to have given you a shout out in the blog!

[Dorsetbred]

How reassurring is this to see!

http://metofficenews...per-atmosphere/

Again after all the time I have spent on the stratosphere thread trying to convince people of this, it is great to see the ukmo re-affirming all that has been said for so long.

Well done Chio, it does give you the official " pat on the back" for your in-depth analysis that you have shared with us. This thread is really building up a great team of knowledgeable folks who can hold their own amongst the best in the world

[chionomaniac]

Thank you L & DB. It is reassurring though to know that something that you have studied and truly believe in has now got the mainstream accreditation that I always thought it deserved.

[SteveB]

Thank you L & DB. It is reassurring though to know that something that you have studied and truly believe in has now got the mainstream accreditation that I always thought it deserved.

Fantastic stuff Chio, certainly seems the way forward when forcasting what is likely to happen over the Winter months.

Do you have any latest information to cheer up the masses?

[chionomaniac]

Just a little update with the current stratosphere state.

Looking at the mid stratosphere - 30 hPa we can see the warming that has been mentioned on the metoffice site:

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/t60_90n_30_2012_merra.pdf

I don't know how higher this is likely to reach - but it certainly is a change around from the earlier autumnal cold strat. All areas below 30hPa are now above average - though this has not reached 10 hPa.

I remember saying early in November that I thought that the start of December would have a positive AO unless we saw some increased wave activity. Well didn't we just!

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/z2n_30_2012_merra.pdf

The increase in the wave 2 amplitude has been critical in delivering the current pattern. And the increase in wave 1 amplitude will hopefully help deliver the displacement of the vortex to the Canadian sector which assists in the NE height rises

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/z1n_30_2012_merra.pdf

So critically how has this affected the mean zonal winds in the stratosphere? It is these that have the strong influence over the tropospheric mean zonal winds.

Well as we can see from 10 hpa downwards these are now running well below average and will probably take some time to recover.

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/u60n_10_2012_merra.pdf

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/u60n_30_2012_merra.pdf

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/metdata/annual/merra/u60n_50_2012_merra.pdf

All good news for the rest of the month.

[SnowObsessor90]

Just a little update with the current stratosphere state.

Looking at the mid stratosphere - 30 hPa we can see the warming that has been mentioned on the metoffice site:

http://acdb-ext.gsfc..._2012_merra.pdf

I don't know how higher this is likely to reach - but it certainly is a change around from the earlier autumnal cold strat. All areas below 30hPa are now above average - though this has not reached 10 hPa.

I remember saying early in November that I thought that the start of December would have a positive AO unless we saw some increased wave activity. Well didn't we just!

http://acdb-ext.gsfc..._2012_merra.pdf

The increase in the wave 2 amplitude has been critical in delivering the current pattern. And the increase in wave 1 amplitude will hopefully help deliver the displacement of the vortex to the Canadian sector which assists in the NE height rises

http://acdb-ext.gsfc..._2012_merra.pdf

So critically how has this affected the mean zonal winds in the stratosphere? It is these that have the strong influence over the tropospheric mean zonal winds.

Well as we can see from 10 hpa downwards these are now running well below average and will probably take some time to recover.

http://acdb-ext.gsfc..._2012_merra.pdf

http://acdb-ext.gsfc..._2012_merra.pdf

http://acdb-ext.gsfc..._2012_merra.pdf

All good news for the rest of the month.

I presume going by this you still don't fully buy into those comments from that supposed professional/meteorologist put up in this thread the other day then?

[chionomaniac]

And more good news

Here is the comparison of ozone levels for the NP from 1/11/12 and 1/12/12

(you may need a bit of imagination here, but the overall picture is promising!)

1/11

1/12

[chionomaniac]

I presume going by this you still don't fully buy into those comments from that supposed professional/meteorologist put up in this thread the other day then?

Well I can't rule out that the polar vortex is going to increase in strength from current levels - that would be expected. However, I also think that it is going to take a few more hits this winter and has he taken these into account?

[lorenzo]

I missed the post from this person, were they saying the Vortex was going to revert to positive AO for remainder of Winter?

If so would be interested to know on what basis they see that happening. Analogues lead to December negative AO continuing into January.

Ozone is looking very robust. Scanned through the NOAA list this morning and saw this and continued introduction at other layers.

[Rocheydub]

Just to add to the congrats Chiono. I've been following this thread for a long time now, and have slowly learned an awful lot from you. A terrific resource and I would like to add my appreciation, and congratulations on your affirmation and the support now from UKMO. Well done. Take a bow!!!

[Glacier Point]

So stratospherically, we are running very similar to 1968.

A like for like comparison of 1st October through 1st December of both years at mean flow 30 hPa.

1968 ----------------- 2012

Obviously this year we have seen a stronger westerly component at 70N, but the key here is to note the almost identical reduction in easterly zonal winds over the tropics over the time period, and the date of the 1st disruption (sudden easterly zonal wind) across the high latitudes, taking place late November and early December (the most recent not impressive on the chart just yet but due to delay in data will look more like 1968). Remembering that 1968 is potentially a very good analogue being a second cold season east QBO relative to the solar cycle.

What might we learn from 1968 going forward?

Plot below carries 1968 forward from 1st October through January 31st 1969.

There were four subsequent disruptions which took place, roughly 2 weeks apart, the biggest occuring during January 1969. Each time there was an attempted rebuild of polar westerlies prior to the sudden reversal / weakening westerlies. So, perhaps in the coming weeks we should see a pattern of returning westerlies and reverals to easterlies or weakening westerlies.

The easterly wind flow at 70N during mid January really catches my eye. I think that one is our bigee.

Edited December 4, 2012 by Glacier Point

[AtlanticFlamethrower]

Posting this for general interest.

Site where you can get a graph of current stratospheric temperature, so you can track the ssws.

70mb (90N - 65N)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/

This chart

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/temperature/70mb9065.gif

[anthonym]

There were four subsequent disruptions which took place, roughly 2 weeks apart, the biggest occuring during January 1969. Each time there was an attempted rebuild of polar westerlies prior to the sudden reversal / weakening westerlies. So, perhaps in the coming weeks we should see a pattern of returning westerlies and reverals to easterlies or weakening westerlies.

The easterly wind flow at 70N during mid January really catches my eye. I think that one is our bigee.

First of all, I want to introduce myself: I am Anthony but you may know me better as "HM" from Americanwx. I just wanted to say hello and tell you all what a great thread this is and that I regularly read it. Finally, I agree with your last sentence here. I'm trying to warn everyone here in the eastern US to wait it out and that mild bouts will likely continue through the end of the month.

[Glacier Point]

Anthony

Great to have your views here, and welcome !

Stewart

Edited December 4, 2012 by Glacier Point

[SMU]

First of all, I want to introduce myself: I am Anthony but you may know me better as "HM" from Americanwx. I just wanted to say hello and tell you all what a great thread this is and that I regularly read it. Finally, I agree with your last sentence here. I'm trying to warn everyone here in the eastern US to wait it out and that mild bouts will likely continue through the end of the month.

HM- looking for some great posts- used to follow you, DTwrisk , Typhoon tip & a few others on Eastern US before it closed down-

Welcome to the forum-

The January reversal of winds could be an Epic 4 wave pattern, - lets hope it locks on for Jan & you get your 50/50 low.

S

[johnholmes]

How reassurring is this to see!

http://metofficenews...per-atmosphere/

Again after all the time I have spent on the stratosphere thread trying to convince people of this, it is great to see the ukmo re-affirming all that has been said for so long.

you must be really chuffed about this chio-well done to stick with your views-many of us have learnt a lot from your regular posts and in depth comments about the Stratosphere. Proving that amateur work can be just as helpful in moving science forward as major centres.

[lorenzo]

First of all, I want to introduce myself: I am Anthony but you may know me better as "HM" from Americanwx. I just wanted to say hello and tell you all what a great thread this is and that I regularly read it. Finally, I agree with your last sentence here. I'm trying to warn everyone here in the eastern US to wait it out and that mild bouts will likely continue through the end of the month.

Anthony, a warm welcome to Netweather, fantastic to have you here, enjoy reading your thoughts on AmWx. Between Stewart, Ed and yourself am confident this thread will have the best technical knowledge out there. Superb.

[Southern Storm]

you must be really chuffed about this chio-well done to stick with your views-many of us have learnt a lot from your regular posts and in depth comments about the Stratosphere. Proving that amateur work can be just as helpful in moving science forward as major centres.

I too would like to echo those sentiments posted by john, it is a pleasure reading your posts and I thank you for taking the time to explain things in a way that even a noob can understand, I have gained so much knowledge from you an other posters on here.

Also I don't know if I'm right in saying this but I read that you don't do any of this for a living, if that's the case I tip my hat to you.

Edited December 4, 2012 by thunderman24